164
FXUS63 KOAX 031032
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
532 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding will continue on rivers, creeks, and streams in
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa into the weekend and
  possibly early next week.

- Expect dry weather into next week along with temperatures in
  the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Aside from continued river flooding in southeast NE, pretty
quiet across the area weather-wise this evening. Surface ridging
remained in control with the surface high centered over WI. To
the northwest, a shortwave trough was moving along the
MT/Canadian border and will continue eastward through the day on
Saturday. At the surface, a low will spin up and move through
ND or just along the Canadian border, eventually dragging a cold
front through the forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. A
few CAMs do show some light simulated radar returns along the
boundary as it moves through, but looking at associated
soundings, cloud bases will be pretty high with quite a bit of
dry air below, so even if those returns pan out, not expecting
much, if anything to reach the ground. We`ll call it about a 5%
chance of seeing anything.

Otherwise, of note, temperatures today ended up about 5 to 9
degrees warmer than model consensus, with dewpoints 5 to 10
degrees lower, likely owing to some degree of bias correction
within model blends. Therefore, bumped up temperatures a bit on
Saturday and decreased dewpoints the next several days. While
fire concerns remain fairly low with the recent rain, things
will start to dry out, especially as we start to see more
sunshine and some breezier days into next week. Expect highs in
the 70s on Saturday, with mid 60s to lower 70s Sunday and
Monday. Strong southerly low level flow returns on Tuesday,
allowing temperatures to climb back into the 70s to perhaps
lower 80s. A surface boundary will sag south into the area
sometime Wednesday into Thursday, though temperatures will see
little change through the remainder of the week. With a little
moisture in place and the boundary lingering in the area, not
going to completely rule out a few pop up showers at times.
However, with a lack of larger scale and stronger forcing for
ascent, and with a vast majority of guidance keeping us
completely dry, chances will remain below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period with
mostly clear skies. Winds will remain out of the south, reaching
12 kts at each terminal, with gusts of 20-25 kts at KOFK,
during the day Saturday. Winds will ease into the evening, with
a cold front shifting winds to northerly into the early
overnight period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion