497
FXUS63 KOAX 231640
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon, with another round possible tonight into Monday
  morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler today
  and Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the
  work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning
continue to depict an amplified ridge in place over the western
CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS.
Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under
northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the
ridge and into the area. A shortwave disturbance pivoting across
NE/SD has developed a band of showers and thunderstorms that will
continue its slow trek eastward into eastern Nebraska this
afternoon. Instability quickly drops off with eastern extent, so
showers are expected to gradually weaken and decrease in coverage as
they progress into the area through the afternoon. Given the slow
movement and longer residence time, we could see some rainfall
totals approaching 1 inch towards east-central Nebraska, with totals
quickly dropping off towards the Missouri River. Otherwise, the
increasing cloud cover will keep afternoon highs confined to
the low 70s to low 80s.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight into
early Monday as a 25-30 kt LLJ noses into eastern Nebraska, helping
to bring sufficient low-level moisture and warm air advection to
initiate a round of scattered showers, generally after 10 PM before
become more widespread overnight. Instability will be the main
limiting factor for storms overnight. A corridor of marginal MUCAPE
(1000-1250 J/kg) will drift into northeast Nebraska, bring some low-
end potential for a stronger storm or two. However, instability
tapers off quickly to the south and east, leaving enough for a few
rumbles of thunder but limiting overall storm intensity. Showers
will gradually taper off through the late morning hours on Monday.
Rainfall totals will be quite variable across the area, depending on
where heavier showers track, though pockets of 0.50-1.00" are
expected across eastern Nebraska. Clouds cover will be slow to break
up and improve behind the departing showers, helping to keep
afternoon highs confined to the upper 70s and low 80s yet again.

Tuesday...

Through the work week, the large scale pattern will remain largely
unchanged, with ridging to our west keeping the area under generally
northwest flow aloft as a train of shortwave disturbances bring
periodic precipitation chances. A few extra peaks of sunshine on
Tuesday will help bring high temperatures back into the mid 80s
ahead of a shortwave disturbance pushing into the northern Plains.
The disturbance is expected to spin up a surface low tracking across
southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba that will drape a cold front across
the plains, pushing southward across the area through the latter
half of Tuesday/early Wednesday.

Storm chances with the frontal passage remain somewhat uncertain.
While it does look like a fairly unstable airmass will develop ahead
of the front, the better forcing for ascent will remain to our
northeast, closer to Minnesota, with another enhanced area to
our west towards western NE/KS with another incoming shortwave
disturbance. Storm development will likely fall on more
mesoscale details that come into focus with time. While a strong
to severe storm can`t be ruled out, the better potential
resides to our west. With this in mind, PoPs of 20-40% are in
place Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances clear out Wednesday morning, with dry
conditions likely into Thursday. Plenty of sunshines and a brief
period of surface high pressure will keep high temperatures in the
low to mid 80s.

Long range guidance continues to flatten the western CONUS ridge
into the weekend, keeping it mostly centered over the Desert
Southwest and Permian Basin, leaving more zonal flow aloft locally
and bringing subtle temperature increase to the area. High
temperatures are expected to push back into the mid to upper 80s
this weekend, though we will still remain vulnerable to passing
shortwave disturbance over the ridge bringing periodic precipitation
chances. On-and-off PoPs of 20-40% continue Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A band of rain showers will slowly push eastward across the
area this afternoon. Generally VFR conditions prevail, with
patchy MVFR conditions expected under heavier showers. Showers
and expected to continue at KOFK and KLNK, with coverage more
spotty eastward towards KOMA as showers begin to decrease in
coverage through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances remain low,
around 20%, at the terminals this afternoon.

A break in precipitation is expected this evening before more
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop overnight,
clearing by the mid to late morning. This round of storms is
expected to impact each terminal, with refinements in timing is
likely. Winds will back from the southwesterly this afternoon
to southeasterly tonight. Though winds will generally remain
calm, a few 12-18 kt gusts will be possible with passing rain
showers.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion