271
FXUS63 KOAX 051724
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds this morning subside in the afternoon.
  Temperatures warm to the mid 50s across northeast Nebraska to
  60F across the far south with sunny skies expected.

- Breezy winds return Thursday and Friday with dry conditions
  expected and highs in the low to mid 60s.

- 30 to 45% chance for precip returns for Saturday, primarily
  across far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Gusty winds
  are also expected. Temperatures signficantly cool Saturday
  night through Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

08z RAP objective analysis at H5 shows zonal to northwesterly flow
over the Central Plains. A shortwave trof is also observed rounding
the base of the longwave trof whose axis extends from near the
Hudson Bay to the southwest into Minnesota and the Dakotas. Sfc
analysis shows the well advertised cold front exiting far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa early this morning. METAR observations
show some gustiness behind the cold front, particularly at sites
including Norfolk and Albion where gusts of 20 to 25 mph were
reported.

Strong cold air advection coupled with a ribbon of 30 to 40kt H9
winds and a lingering tight pressure gradient should result in the
gusty 25-30 mph winds persisting through at least the noon hour.
Winds will subside from northwest to southeast today as sfc high
pressure moves southeast and overspreads the forecast area. Highs
will be in the mid 50s across northeast Nebraska to 60F across our
far southern areas. Lows tonight cool to the mid 30s to near 40F
along the Nebraska/South Dakota border.

Late tonight into Thursday morning, a shortwave near Wyoming ejects
east dampening the H5 ridge overtop the Central Plains. The H8
baroclinic zone lifts northeast by the early morning. The resultant
warm air advection coupled with low level mixing should help
temperatures warm back to widespread 60s Thursday. Southerly winds
will become gusty early in the day and into the early afternoon,
especially across northeast Nebraska as we mix fairly well into a
low level jet and also have a tight pressure gradient. Expect wind
gusts up to 35 mph by the late morning.

Late Thursday afternoon, the sfc cold front will be at our doorstep.
Similar to previous days, CAM guidance keeps generating widely
scattered showers along and ahead of the main front in the warm
sector. While Q-vector convergence seen in the mid and low levels
suggests some signal for lift, moisture transport lacks over the
forecast area for much of the day. Model guidance shows the best
theta-e advection just to our east by Thursday evening where the low
level jet ramps up. Added confidence from BUFKIT soundings showing
significant dry air in the low levels results in a dry forecast for
the evening and night. Winds weaken by the evening hours, while lows
cool to the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Friday will see a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the low to mid
60s. Breezy northwest winds linger too as we`ll still be influenced
by a tight pressure gradient and strong low level northwesterly
flow.

By Saturday, a potent H5 shortwave over southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan is progged to eject southeast into the Northern Plains.
The trof eventually helps force a sfc low which also tracks
southeast into portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. Latest
deterministic and LREF ensemble suite have good agreement with
regards to precipitation occurring with the feature despite the
uncertainties with the sfc low track. A strong push of H8 cold air
advection will advance southward throughout much of Saturday too
resulting in H8 temps generally at or below 0C. How fast or slow the
sfc low moves through the area and can interact with the cold
airmass will play a large role on p-type.

EPS ensembles of mean MSLP show the low farther to our east Saturday
afternoon implying earlier passage of the feature/precip. GEFS and
CMC ensembles show slightly higher uncertainties regarding low
placement, but seem to keep the low slightly closer to the forecast
area by Saturday afternoon. For this forecast package, NBM has
highlighted an area of 30 to 45% PoPs for rain from 06z to 18z
primarily along the Nebraska/South Dakota border into west central
and southwest Iowa. A rain/snow mix may occur in the late afternoon
primarily near the Nebraska/South Dakota border, again, largely
dependent on how fast the low moves through. Accumulations appear
unlikely at this time as combined LREF guidance shows over 65% of
members having no accumulating snowfall. Winds will also be
rather gusty during this period, so fire weather concerns will
also be in play. It is important to note that several
uncertainties still remain with this system, so please stay
tuned to the forecast for any further updates as we get closer
to the weekend.

Highs vary Saturday, with most in the far north seeing mid 40s, and
warmer temperatures in the upper 50s in our far south. Late Saturday
into Sunday sees the H5 shortwave fuse with a closed low over
Ontario that dives southward, helping deepen the longwave trof
across the eastern CONUS. 1000-500mb thicknesses will plummet
resulting in rather cold temperatures Saturday night as lows cool to
the low to mid 20s. Temperatures warm to the mid 30s to near 40F by
Sunday, but yet again cool Sunday night into Monday into the mid
teens to upper 20s. The cool temperatures will be short lived as
thicknesses rise into much of next week, with mid 50s to low 60s
expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period at the terminals.
Gusty north winds will decrease to around 8-14kts over the next
couple of hours. Winds are expected to shift to the south early
tomorrow morning. There may be a little LLWS at KOFK and KOMA
after 13Z. Skies remain clear through the daytime hours today,
with a few high level clouds moving in after 03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion