874
FXUS63 KOAX 040500
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon/evening.
  Hail, gusty winds and localized flash flooding will be the
  main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. An
  isolated tornado risk will also be possible.

- Friday brings another chance for strong to severe
  thunderstorms with all hazards possible.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  across at least a portion of the Omaha CWA Saturday through
  Wednesday as a series of disturbances move through the region.

- Expect a return to the 90s Monday through Wednesday as a ridge
  sets up to our northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The forecast period begins with showers moving into portions of
eastern Nebraska this evening. Showers that were in southeastern
Nebraska earlier this evening, retreated to the west, out of our
CWA. Stratiform rain has been ongoing for several hours across south
central Nebraska. Current radar continues to have that rainfall
occurring across that area; however, there remains a chance that
some of that could move back into our CWA. Across north central
Nebraska into central South Dakota, a cold front front has been
pushing through the region, with showers and thunderstorms ongoing.
The current line of showers/storms is expected to drift to the east
overnight, bringing some chances for rain and maybe a few rumbles of
thunder to our area.

Thursday brings some cooler temperatures with highs in the mid-70s
to mid-80s. A broad upper trough orients itself across the Rockies,
Central High Plains and Great Plains through the day, with a
shortwave trough moving through it. Heading into the afternoon, Pwat
values approaching 1.5"+ are expected, particularly across
southeastern Nebraska. Storms that are able to develop could produce
some heavy rain. Areas that receive multiple rounds of rain may
encounter some issues with localized flash flooding. As far as the
potential for severe thunderstorms go, instability will increase
heading into the afternoon and evening. 0-6km bulk shear may
initially range in the 10-20kt range which would result in an
initial onset of a few disorganized storms developing. 0-6km bulk
shear is expected to increase to around 20-30kts by mid-
afternoon and lapse rates will be decent. The main concerns with
storms will be hail and gusty winds along with localized heavy
rainfall which may result in some flash flooding. With decent
moisture in the region and low LCLs of less than 1000m, there is
the potential of having a few isolated tornadoes develop across
the region. We will be monitoring conditions for this potential
closely.

The heat returns Friday as temperatures climb back into the mid to
upper 80s. With south winds expected through the day, a few low 90s
are not entirely out of the realm of possibility, particularly for
areas along the Kansas-Nebraska border. Another disturbance is
expected to move across the region during the day, bringing another
chance for strong to severe storms. A cold front will drop into
Nebraska from the north with decent instability ahead of it. Shear
will be decent as well. Storms are expected to kick off along and
ahead of the front with the potential for producing hail and gusty
winds. There is a chance for a few isolated tornadoes as well.

Saturday and Sunday, a ridge develops over the Dakotas, slipping
northeast over Canada and Minnesota. Split flow develops with a
possible disturbance lifting north into south central Kansas
Saturday afternoon/evening. Expect additional chances for showers
and thunderstorms as this system moves through. Saturday highs will
range from the mid-80s to mid-90s, while Sunday will be slightly
cooler, with most areas in the mid to upper 80s.

Ridging to the northeast of the area and the exit of the disturbance
heading into the start of next week week will result in highs
reaching the 90s. There will be daily chances for a few
showers/storms across at least a portion of the Omaha CWA through
this timeframe as additional disturbances move through.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are favored at all terminal through Thursday
morning. Southerly winds at 12-15 kts will calm under 12 kts
overnight. Rain and storm chances remain the main story through
the period. A decaying thunderstorm complex pushing into
northeast Nebraska may bring a few hours of showers, perhaps
some thunder, to KOFK overnight. Confidence is low that this
complex will persist long enough to make it to KOMA and KLNK,
with a 20% chance of light showers Thursday morning.

Additional widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across southeast Nebraska, including KOMA and KLNK,
after 04/15Z. Confidence is high (75% chance) that KOMA and
KLNK will see storms, with the exact timeframe the biggest
question. Expect refinements in this timeframe with subsequent
TAF packages. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
capable of patchy MVFR to IFR conditions and strong wind gusts.
Storms will push off to the south, clearing the terminals by
05/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion