000
FXUS63 KOAX 220446
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1046 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold air remains in place through Monday with highs in
  the 20s and 30s. Wind chills could dip to 5 to 15 degrees
  below zero Sunday and Monday mornings.

- A steady warming trend begins on Tuesday and generally
  continues through the remainder of the week.

- A mid-week system will bring our next chance for precipitation with
  a 20-40% chance for rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A weak shortwave trough is diving south behind the developing
Nor`easter off the East Coast. This system is maintaining cold
air advection over the region and keeping temperatures very
cold. Temperatures fall into the single digits with wind chills
as low as 5 to 15 degrees below zero. Surface high pressure
moves in during the afternoon on Sunday, but the cold remains.
Temperatures remain in the 20s. Temperatures plummet with snow
covered ground and clear skies Sunday night. Temperatures bottom
out as low as the negative single digits with wind chills 5 to
15 degrees below zero once again. As the surface high moves off
to the east, southerly winds return to the area. This will be
too late in the day on Monday to offer much warming. Afternoon
temperatures continue to be cold in the 20s and 30s.

Tuesday marks the beginning of steady warming trend across the
region. Increasing heights and southwesterly surface winds
quickly warm temperatures. 50s and 60s are expected for areas
without remaining snow cover, while snow covered ground keeps
temperatures in the 40s. A mid-week system brings our next
chance for precipitation. Temperatures hold steady in the 40s
and 50s ahead of this system. An area of low pressure and a cold
front swing through the area Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. This timing brings a chance of not only rain, but
perhaps some snow as temperatures fall below freezing overnight.
At this time, the chance of precipitation is low (20-40%).
Despite this system, temperatures hold steady before increasing
again on Friday. The warming trend is forecast to end by next
weekend as the next weather system enters the picture. Cooler
temperatures and perhaps a low (10-20%) chance of precipitation
returns to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period thanks to
mostly clear skies and continued northwesterly winds. Expect
some low end gusts overnight. Included them at KOFK where expect
they will register more often in the obs, but will be
occasionally recorded at most sites. Winds will slow by Sunday
eve.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion