117
FXUS63 KOAX 031024
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps climb another few degrees for Monday as elevated
  wildfire smoke continues to produce hazy skies.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night
  into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another
  warming trend likely toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

It`s another mostly clear evening with temperatures in the 70s
as of 10pm. Fog from early this morning is not expected to
repeat tonight due to winds persisting out of the south around 5
to 15 mph. If we were to see anything it would be in sheltered
areas more likely in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa where
winds are weakest. Temperatures forecast to fall into the mid
60s by daybreak.

Looking at satellite and the upper-level pattern, we see the
ridge centered over the Northern Plains with a broad trough over
the Ohio River Vally stretching down into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Out to the northwest we have another broad trough over
the Canadian Rockies that will play a role in helping to squash
down the ridge over the Northern Plains over the next few days.

Monday will be very similar to today. We`ll see strengthening
southerly flow ramping up ahead of the deepening area of low
pressure across the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle. This
will help temperatures warm a few degrees warmer than today with
highs in the upper 80s across southwest Iowa and lower 90s for
eastern Nebraska. Monday evening a fully developed frontal
boundary will trigger showers and storms across central Nebraska
into northeast South Dakota. As the front approaches through the
evening we see increased elevated instability in the region of
pooling moisture to our west. As the front arrives, though, hi-
res guidance really eats away at the amount of instability with
the best environment in our area being around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE over northeast Nebraska between 05-10Z. Bulk shear around
that time stays insignificant until you get behind the cold
front lending toward little-to-no severe threat across our area.
Any stronger storms approaching should decay as they arrive.
Showers and storms should arrive around midnight or just after,
scattered in nature with more widespread showers and storms
likely not arriving until closer to midday Tuesday.

The cold front drops south but stalls across our area on Tuesday
acting as a focus for increased moisture through the afternoon.
Model guidance really doesn`t show much of a trigger, but the
HRRR really blows up along the boundary during the afternoon.
May be a case of the HRRR overconvecting. In any case, if storms
were to get going during the afternoon, hodographs show modest,
but not insignificant amount of shear. Bulk shear values of
35-40kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This could organize a few
stronger storms, but again, we may not have enough forcing to
get storms really going during the afternoon. Better chances
look to be as a shortwave skirts us to our north potentially
triggering some elevated storms overnight along the frontal
boundary. Model soundings show winds are fairly unidirectional
through the unstable layer at this time indicating not a
significant severe threat with these storms.

The forecast beyond Tuesday will greatly depend on how storms
shift the surface boundary Tuesday afternoon and overnight.
Areas north of the front starting Tuesday will see the Canadian
High keep temperatures fairly cool for this time of year with
highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. This remains true for areas north
of the front on Wednesday, which likely will be over most of our
area as the front should push south of the Nebraska-Kansas state
line for Wednesday. Broad troughing over the Central US as well
as a jet streak positioned from southern Idaho east through
Wyoming and Nebraska will lend toward additional shortwaves
bringing more chances for showers and storms along and north of
this frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday. Shouldn`t be
a complete wash-out all day, but do think many across our area
will see at least some rainfall. We expect a swath of heavier
amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches just north of the frontal
boundary, right now looking to be near the I-80 corridor from
around Lincoln to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Amounts drop off north
and south with around a tenth of an inch or less north around
Antelope County east through Monona as well as a tenth to a
quarter of an inch in far southeast Nebraska and near the
Missouri state line in Iowa.

Thursday we should see the trough dig far enough south to push
rain chances down into Kansas and Missouri. With the Canadian
High still in place, temperatures will remain mild, though
clearer skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low
80s. Smoke could be a concern Thursday as subsidence from the
high centered across our area may allow it to sink toward the
ground, but we won`t have a good idea of the extent until hi-res
guidance comes out 36-48 hours in advance.

The forecast toward the end of the week becomes more difficult
as the ridge over the Desert Southwest fights to build back up
while an active troughing pattern over the PacNW fights it back
down. Models diverge significantly in the details including any
potential rain chances for our area, but the general trend is
for temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s on Friday and
low 90s for the weekend as that ridge expands eastward over the
Central and Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Patchy fog has developed this morning, bringing pockets of MVFR
to LIFR conditions to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Fog potential has been left out of the current TAF package due
to the low confidence in coverage (20% chance of impacting each
terminal). Amendments will be made if needed, with conditions
expected to improve by 03/12-14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
favored through the period.

Southerly winds will become gusty by mid-morning, with gusts of
20-25 kts through the afternoon. Winds will gradually calm into
the evening. A scattered late afternoon can`t be ruled out (15%
chance), particularly at KOFK. A front will come through KOFK
towards the end of the forecast period, shifting winds to
northerly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion