343
FXUS63 KOAX 130010
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler air arrives tonight through the weekend with highs in
  the 40s. Morning lows fall into the 20s on Friday and
  Saturday.

- Slow warming trend starts Saturday, with widespread 50s by
  Tuesday and a few spots nearing 60 by Wednesday.

- Dry through at least Tuesday, with the next best chance for
  rain on Wednesday (20-40% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed large scale upper level
troughing across the eastern CONUS with a ridge axis basically
over the Rockies. This left us under northwest flow aloft with
surface ridging contributing to quiet and cool weather. The
surface ridging will remain in place overnight with winds
remaining light, so it`s setting up for our coldest night of the
season thus far, with lows in the lower to mid 20s. That said,
some short term guidance hints at some lingering clouds
overnight, especially near and east of the Missouri River. If
those end up being a little more expansive than currently
thought, lows Friday morning may end up several degrees higher
than forecast, but still almost certainly sub-freezing (95%
chance). Friday into Friday night will be similar to today and
tonight, with highs in the 40s, lows in the lower to mid 20s,
and winds remaining light as the surface high passes by to our
east.

We`ll start a slow, but steady warming trend Saturday as the
ridge to our west starts to advance eastward and southerly low
level flow builds in. Expect mid to upper 40s for the weekend
before some 50s start to return by Monday and Tuesday, and a few
spots near 60 by Wednesday.

Dry weather will be favored through at least Tuesday with
guidance now in good agreement that a shortwave trough and
associated precip currently off the Pacific Northwest shore will
stay to our southwest. The next chances arrive on Wednesday as
a surface low passes by to the north and drags a cold front
through the area. Still quite a bit of spread on exacting timing
and track, and latest trends have been toward a drier frontal
passage, but chances remain in the 20-40% range Wednesday into
early Thursday. Looking ahead, guidance is in decent agreement
of another system moving through at some point during the
weekend, but being 9-10 days out, overall forecast confidence is
pretty low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the
TAF cycle. Model guidance is still suggesting some low clouds
around 1,500-3,000 feet moving across terminals after 10z. The
majority of clouds should remain at FEW to SCT, but still can`t
rule out seeing some brief drops to MVFR. Northerly winds at 10
kts or less will become easterly after 15z, but still remain
light.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo/Dyer

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion