Current WXSIM Forecast

Sunday, 15-Jul-2018 08:00 pm

Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 73°
Monday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 91°
Monday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 68°
Tuesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
High: 83°
Tuesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 67°
Wednesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
High: 90°
Wednesday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 71°
Thursday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 94°
Thursday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 73°

Current NWS Forecast

Sun, 15-Jul-2018 7:59pm CDT

Tonight

Tonight: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 66 °F
Monday

Monday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 87 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 67 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 83 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 66 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 85 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Showers And TStorms Likely

Lo 68 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 89 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 67 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 67   65 89   91 67   68 85   90 65   69 85   89 67   69 83   85
07-14-18 71 69.4°F 68 85 93.4 °F 87 70   63 89   89 69   68 84   86 65   65 86   87
07-13-18 76 71.2°F 77 90 ↓ 93.2 °F 99 71 69.4°F 73 89 93.4 °F 83 71   73 90   84 69   69 86   83
07-12-18 76 77.5°F 79 96 99.0 °F 98 73 71.2°F 76 94 93.2 °F 95 72 69.4°F 75 90 93.4 °F 87 72   73 91   84
07-11-18 72 82.6°F 77 96 97.1 °F 95 75 77.5°F 74 96 99.0 °F 96 74 71.2°F 73 92 93.2 °F 94 72 69.4°F 72 92 93.4 °F 83
07-10-18 71 80.6°F 68 94 98.8 °F 94 72 82.6°F 72 95 97.1 °F 94 74 77.5°F 74 95 99.0 °F 97 73 71.2°F 73 92 93.2 °F 89
07-09-18 64 ↑ 71.8°F 72 92 97.6 °F 95 69 80.6°F 72 95 98.8 °F 94 72 82.6°F 73 95 97.1 °F 94 74 77.5°F 74 95 99.0 °F 97
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 2 1
% Succ 33.3   50.0 16.7   16.7 40.0   0.0 20.0   20.0     25.0 25.0   50.0 33.3   33.3 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 6.0   4.5 4.4   3.8 5.6   6.2 2.8   4.6 4.9   5.1 2.7   3.1 2.6   2.6 2.2   5.5
Net Error -3.9   -2.0 -4.4   -1.9 -4.3   -2.9 -2.5   -3.9 -2.2   -1.4 -2.7   -2.7 0.3   0.3 -2.2   -5.5
Std Dev 4.3   4.2 2.9   2.5 4.6   4.3 2.1   4.2 4.4   4.4 2.3   3.1 2.6   2.6 2.2   5.5

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 67   91 89   67 66   90 87   68 66   89 84   68 67   85 85   70
07-14-18 69 ↑ 93.4 °F 85 86 67.1°F 62 68   87 90   69 68   87 84   66 65   87 87   65
07-13-18 76 ↑ 93.2 °F 100 90 ↓ 68.4°F 74 71 93.4 °F 83 86 67.1°F 73 71   84 90   69 70   83 85   65
07-12-18 76 ↑ 99.0 °F 101 96 77.5°F 77 74 93.2 °F 99 92 68.4°F 74 72 93.4 °F 88 89 67.1°F 73 72   84 89   74
07-11-18 72 ↑ 97.1 °F 97 96 79.6°F 76 75 99.0 °F 97 97 77.5°F 73 73 93.2 °F 93 93 68.4°F 72 72 93.4 °F 83 91 67.1°F 73
07-10-18 71 98.8 °F 92 95 78.2°F 72 72 97.1 °F 93 96 79.6°F 74 75 99.0 °F 97 95 77.5°F 72 74 93.2 °F 88 92 68.4°F 74
07-09-18 64 ↑ 97.6 °F 96 94 67.8°F 71 68 98.8 °F 95 95 78.2°F 73 71 97.1 °F 94 95 79.6°F 73 75 99.0 °F 97 95 77.5°F 72
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     50.0     16.7     20.0     0.0     50.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 25.2   4.3 19.7   4.0 24.3   5.2 19.0   5.4 22.9   2.7 19.9   5.4 21.5   5.9 21.7   5.7
Net Error -25.2   -1.4 19.7   -1.1 -24.3   -2.9 19.0   -0.8 -22.9   -2.7 19.9   -0.6 -21.5   -5.9 21.7   2.0
Std Dev 10.9   3.4 8.3   2.5 15.6   4.3 12.2   3.4 19.9   2.7 17.2   4.7 21.5   5.9 21.7   5.7

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 89   89 66   64 87   82 66   64 84   77 67   64 85   82 67   68
07-14-18 86 93.4 °F 83 68 66.8°F 61 90   87 68   67 84   85 65   65 87   77 67   65
07-13-18 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 91 71 67.7°F 71 86 93.4 °F 85 71 66.8°F 70 90   87 70   71 85   85 65   69
07-12-18 96 99.0 °F 95 74 77.5°F 74 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 96 72 67.7°F 73 89 93.4 °F 86 72 66.8°F 73 89   89 69   71
07-11-18 96 97.1 °F 93 75 77.5°F 74 97 99.0 °F 93 73 77.5°F 74 93 93.2 °F 93 72 67.7°F 73 91 93.4 °F 81 72 66.8°F 74
07-10-18 95 98.8 °F 91 72 76.9°F 71 96 97.1 °F 91 75 77.5°F 74 95 99.0 °F 96 74 77.5°F 73 92 93.2 °F 91 73 67.7°F 75
07-09-18 94 97.6 °F 91 68 67.1°F 69 95 98.8 °F 93 71 76.9°F 72 95 97.1 °F 95 75 77.5°F 75 95 99.0 °F 96 73 77.5°F 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 2 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   0.0 33.3   16.7 60.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.4   5.9 2.7   4.0 3.1   5.8 4.3   4.1 2.7   3.2 3.9   4.6 2.5   5.9 5.0   6.3
Net Error -3.4   -5.9 -0.9   -2.3 -3.1   -4.7 -0.9   -0.7 -2.7   -3.2 0.9   1.1 -2.5   -5.9 2.0   3.3
Std Dev 2.5   3.6 1.6   2.0 2.9   4.1 2.7   2.7 2.5   3.5 3.4   4.1 2.5   5.9 5.0   6.3

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 89   93 66   71 87   84 66   66 84   79 67   65 85   82 67   69
07-14-18 86 93.4 °F 85 68 66.8°F 64 90   88 68   66 84   85 65   64 87   77 67   65
07-13-18 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 92 71 67.6°F 73 86 93.4 °F 87 71 66.8°F 72 90   89 70   72 85   86 65   69
07-12-18 96 99.0 °F 97 74 77.5°F 76 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 97 72 67.6°F 74 89 93.4 °F 87 72 66.8°F 73 89   90 69   72
07-11-18 96 97.1 °F 96 75 77.5°F 77 97 99.0 °F 94 73 77.5°F 75 93 93.2 °F 93 72 67.6°F 74 91 93.4 °F 82 72 66.8°F 74
07-10-18 95 98.8 °F 96 72 76.9°F 74 96 97.1 °F 93 75 77.5°F 75 95 99.0 °F 97 74 77.5°F 73 92 93.2 °F 91 73 67.6°F 76
07-09-18 95 97.6 °F 92 68 67.1°F 71 95 98.8 °F 93 71 76.9°F 73 95 97.1 °F 95 75 77.5°F 75 95 99.0 °F 96 73 77.5°F 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   50.0 33.3   33.3 60.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   50.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.2   3.5 2.7   2.8 3.1   5.0 4.3   4.1 2.7   2.7 3.9   4.9 2.5   5.5 5.0   6.7
Net Error -3.2   -3.5 -0.9   0.3 -3.1   -3.5 -0.9   0.5 -2.7   -2.7 0.9   1.4 -2.5   -5.5 2.0   3.7
Std Dev 2.5   2.9 1.6   1.9 2.9   3.3 2.7   2.9 2.5   3.0 3.4   4.3 2.5   5.5 5.0   6.7

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 92   94 66   74 87   89 66   71 84   78 67   71 85   83 67   72
07-14-18 86 93.4 °F 90 68 66.8°F 70 90   89 68   70 84   89 65   66 87   77 67   66
07-13-18 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 94 71 67.6°F 74 86 93.4 °F 85 71 66.8°F 71 90   88 70   69 85   84 65   68
07-12-18 96 99.0 °F 98 75 77.5°F 77 91 ↓ 93.2 °F 95 72 67.6°F 74 89 93.4 °F 87 72 66.8°F 74 89   89 69   69
07-11-18 96 97.1 °F 96 76 77.5°F 76 97 99.0 °F 96 73 77.5°F 75 94 93.2 °F 97 72 67.6°F 74 90 93.4 °F 88 72 66.8°F 77
07-10-18 96 98.8 °F 100 72 76.9°F 77 96 97.1 °F 95 75 77.5°F 75 95 99.0 °F 96 74 77.5°F 75 92 93.2 °F 89 73 67.6°F 75
07-09-18 95 97.6 °F 97 71 67.1°F 75 95 98.8 °F 94 72 76.9°F 75 96 97.1 °F 93 74 77.5°F 76 95 99.0 °F 97 73 77.5°F 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 5 2 3 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
% Succ 33.3   83.3 33.3   50.0 40.0   20.0     20.0 50.0   0.0     25.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 3.0   1.4 2.9   3.3 3.3   4.0 4.1   3.5 2.6   4.3 4.2   4.4 2.9   3.9 5.0   7.4
Net Error -3.0   -0.7 -0.1   2.6 -3.3   -3.3 -0.7   0.7 -2.2   -2.4 0.7   2.4 -2.9   -3.9 2.0   4.4
Std Dev 2.4   1.0 1.7   2.6 2.9   3.4 2.6   2.6 2.4   3.9 3.6   4.1 2.9   3.9 5.0   7.4

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 93 ↓   72 66   89 87   69 67   78 83   70 66   83 85   71 68   90
07-14-18 87 66.8°F 73 67 93.4 °F 90 89   71 67   89 85   67 65   77 85   66 67   85
07-13-18 92 ↓ 67.6°F 70 71 93.2 °F 85 85 66.8°F 66 70 93.4 °F 88 89   68 69   84 84   67 65   85
07-12-18 96 77.5°F 78 76 99.0 °F 95 90 ↓ 67.6°F 75 71 93.2 °F 87 89 66.8°F 74 71 93.4 °F 88 90   69 69   83
07-11-18 96 77.5°F 77 76 97.1 °F 96 96 77.5°F 75 73 99.0 °F 95 94 67.6°F 73 72 93.2 °F 88 90 66.8°F 77 72 93.4 °F 93
07-10-18 96 76.9°F 77 72 98.8 °F 95 96 77.5°F 75 75 97.1 °F 96 96 77.5°F 75 74 99.0 °F 89 92 67.6°F 75 72 93.2 °F 84
07-09-18 94 67.1°F 76 71 97.6 °F 95 94 76.9°F 76 72 98.8 °F 93 95 77.5°F 77 74 97.1 °F 97 95 77.5°F 74 73 99.0 °F 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ     50.0     16.7     40.0     20.0     25.0     25.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 21.3   3.1 24.4   3.9 18.9   2.8 24.1   4.5 21.2   3.9 22.9   5.2 21.7   7.0 22.9   8.2
Net Error 21.3   2.9 -24.4   -3.9 18.9   0.1 -24.1   -4.5 21.2   2.4 -22.9   -5.2 21.7   4.7 -22.9   -8.2
Std Dev 9.0   2.7 10.2   2.6 12.1   2.9 15.3   3.0 18.3   3.8 19.9   4.5 21.7   7.0 22.9   8.2

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-15-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-15-18 66   73 87   91 67   68 83   83 66   67 85   90 68   71 89   94
07-14-18 67 66.8°F 71 89 93.4 °F 91 67   70 85   90 65   66 85   90 67   67 83   89
07-13-18 71 67.6°F 69 85 93.2 °F 88 70 66.8°F 66 89 93.4 °F 89 69   66 84   89 65   66 86   83
07-12-18 76 77.5°F 80 90 ↓ 99.0 °F 96 71 67.6°F 76 89 93.2 °F 87 71 66.8°F 76 90 93.4 °F 87 69   70 86   85
07-11-18 76 77.5°F 80 96 97.1 °F 98 73 77.5°F 77 94 99.0 °F 95 72 67.6°F 75 90 93.2 °F 84 72 66.8°F 73 91 93.4 °F 88
07-10-18 72 76.9°F 78 96 98.8 °F 97 75 77.5°F 76 96 97.1 °F 98 74 77.5°F 76 92 99.0 °F 95 72 67.6°F 73 92 93.2 °F 80
07-09-18 71 67.1°F 77 94 97.6 °F 98 72 76.9°F 78 95 98.8 °F 95 74 77.5°F 77 95 97.1 °F 95 73 77.5°F 74 92 99.0 °F 88
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 2 1 3 0 4 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0
% Succ 50.0   33.3 16.7   50.0     80.0 20.0   20.0     50.0     0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 2.6   3.6 4.9   2.3 3.7   2.5 3.7   3.9 3.9   4.7 3.9   5.4 4.7   5.0 3.5   9.9
Net Error -0.1   3.6 -4.9   -1.9 -1.1   1.3 -3.7   -3.5 0.4   3.7 -3.9   -5.4 1.7   2.7 -3.5   -9.9
Std Dev 1.9   2.1 3.4   1.7 2.4   3.3 2.4   2.7 3.4   4.6 3.4   4.7 4.7   5.0 3.5   9.9

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-14-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-14-18 67   67 89   91 67   68 85   90 65   64 85   90 67   67 83   89
07-13-18 71 74.4°F 69 85 93.2 °F 88 70   66 89   89 69   66 84   89 65   66 86   83
07-12-18 76 74.9°F 79 90 ↓ 99.0 °F 96 71 74.4°F 74 89 93.2 °F 81 71   73 90   87 69   69 86   84
07-11-18 76 77.5°F 78 96 97.1 °F 98 73 74.9°F 76 94 99.0 °F 94 72 74.4°F 74 90 93.2 °F 84 72   72 91   88
07-10-18 72 85.3°F 75 96 98.8 °F 96 75 77.5°F 76 96 97.1 °F 97 74 74.9°F 75 92 99.0 °F 94 72 74.4°F 72 92 93.2 °F 80
07-09-18 71 81.4°F 70 94 97.6 °F 94 72 85.3°F 71 95 98.8 °F 93 74 77.5°F 73 95 97.1 °F 95 73 74.9°F 72 92 99.0 °F 88
07-08-18 64 ↑ 76.3°F 72 92 92.7 °F 95 69 81.4°F 71 95 97.6 °F 93 72 85.3°F 73 95 98.8 °F 93 74 77.5°F 73 95 97.1 °F 95
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 33.3   16.7 33.3   16.7 20.0   60.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   50.0     0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 7.0   6.0 4.2   3.0 6.7   5.5 3.3   5.5 5.0   4.3 4.0   5.5 2.6   3.3 3.4   8.8
Net Error -6.6   -4.5 -4.2   -1.9 -6.7   -5.1 -3.3   -5.5 -5.0   -4.3 -4.0   -5.5 -2.6   -3.3 -3.4   -8.8
Std Dev 5.5   4.4 3.4   1.8 5.3   5.0 2.5   5.2 4.5   4.2 3.5   5.1 2.6   3.3 3.4   8.8

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.