Current WXSIM Forecast

Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 02:00 am

Rest of
tonight
Clear
Clear
Low: 46°
Thursday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 77°
Thursday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 53°
Friday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 76°
Friday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 66°
Saturday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 75°
Saturday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 48°
Sunday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 70°
Sunday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 45°

Current NWS Forecast

Wed, 18-Oct-2017 12:42pm CDT

Rest Of
Today
Sunny
Sunny
Hi ≈75°F
Tonight

Clear
Clear
Lo <45°F
Thursday

Sunny
Sunny
Hi ≈75°F
Thursday
Night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Lo ≈55°F
Friday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Hi ≈75°F
Friday
Night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Lo ≈60°F
Saturday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Hi >65°F
Saturday
Night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Lo <45°F
Sunday

Sunny
Sunny
Hi >65°F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-19-17 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-17 75   46 <45   77 75   53 55   76 75   66 60   75 >65   48 <45   70
10-18-17 49 ↑ 48.1°F 52 77 ↓ 80.5 °F 80 41   45 76   79 60   56 76   80 60   64 68   72
10-17-17 45 ↑ 57.9°F 48 74 ↓ 74.9 °F 77 48 48.1°F 48 76 80.5 °F 79 42   44 75   76 55   50 76   73
10-16-17 34 ↑ 57.6°F 36 71 ↓ 74.7 °F 67 45 ↑ 57.9°F 46 73 74.9 °F 77 48 48.1°F 49 75 80.5 °F 80 47   47 74   79
10-15-17 41 ↑ 38.2°F 42 63 64.1 °F 59 36 57.6°F 36 70 74.7 °F 67 43 57.9°F 42 74 74.9 °F 74 49 48.1°F 48 74 80.5 °F 79
10-14-17 51 47.9°F 55 65 ↓ 60.6 °F 68 42 38.2°F 43 63 64.1 °F 58 36 57.6°F 38 71 74.7 °F 66 44 57.9°F 43 73 74.9 °F 72
10-13-17 50 ↑ 56.4°F 53 63 59.5 °F 64 53 47.9°F 52 68 60.6 °F 65 40 38.2°F 43 59 64.1 °F 58 38 57.6°F 40 71 74.7 °F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
% Succ 16.7   0.0 33.3   16.7 20.0   20.0 40.0   20.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   50.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 8.3   8.3 2.9   4.6 8.7   8.5 3.9   4.4 9.6   10.3 3.8   4.1 11.5   10.9 4.0   4.4
Net Error -6.0   -3.4 -0.2   0.1 -5.1   -4.9 -1.0   -1.8 -8.7   -7.5 -3.8   -4.1 -10.9   -10.9 -4.0   -4.4
Std Dev 8.5   6.9 1.8   3.2 9.0   8.9 2.7   3.5 9.6   10.1 3.4   3.9 11.5   10.9 4.0   4.4

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 49   80 77 ↓   45 41   80 76   56 57   80 76   64 61   72 68   48
10-17-17 45 ↑ 74.9 °F 78 73 ↓ 53.6°F 49 48 ↑   79 75   45 42   76 75   50 56   73 77   58
10-16-17 34 ↑ 74.7 °F 65 72 ↓ 53.6°F 45 45 ↑ 74.9 °F 76 73 53.6°F 47 48   76 76   45 46   77 75   52
10-15-17 41 ↑ 64.1 °F 61 63 36.9°F 37 36 74.7 °F 68 70 53.6°F 45 43 74.9 °F 76 74 53.6°F 48 49   78 74   46
10-14-17 51 60.6 °F 65 66 ↓ 43.0°F 43 42 64.1 °F 58 61 36.9°F 38 36 74.7 °F 66 71 53.6°F 43 45 74.9 °F 71 73 53.6°F 44
10-13-17 50 ↑ 59.5 °F 64 62 53.3°F 52 50 60.6 °F 65 67 43.0°F 44 39 64.1 °F 58 60 36.9°F 41 38 74.7 °F 67 70 53.6°F 44
10-12-17 46 ↑ 72.4 °F 73 71 57.2°F 50 52 59.5 °F 65 64 53.3°F 50 52 60.6 °F 64 67 43.0°F 44 45 64.1 °F 59 57 36.9°F 41
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ     16.7     50.0     20.0     40.0     25.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 23.2   4.2 18.2   3.6 21.8   4.8 18.9   4.1 26.1   4.8 21.2   5.3 28.6   5.6 18.6   7.8
Net Error -23.2   -0.0 18.2   -3.6 -21.8   -0.4 18.9   -3.3 -26.1   -2.6 21.2   -2.8 -28.6   -5.6 18.6   -5.0
Std Dev 14.5   2.9 9.2   3.4 16.1   3.6 12.2   3.7 22.8   4.6 18.4   4.6 28.6   5.6 18.6   7.8

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 77 ↓   78 41   45 76 ↓   79 57   55 76   80 61   65 68   71 43   47
10-17-17 73 ↓ 74.9 °F 75 48 ↑ 51.8°F 48 75 ↓   79 42   44 75   76 56   53 77   76 60   59
10-16-17 72 ↓ 74.7 °F 66 45 ↑ 49.1°F 47 73 ↓ 74.9 °F 77 48 51.8°F 49 76   80 46   46 75   79 54   56
10-15-17 63 64.1 °F 59 36 36.6°F 37 70 ↓ 74.7 °F 67 43 49.1°F 45 74 74.9 °F 76 49 51.8°F 50 74   79 48   46
10-14-17 66 ↓ 60.6 °F 63 42 39.7°F 43 61 64.1 °F 56 36 36.6°F 38 71 74.7 °F 65 45 49.1°F 43 73 74.9 °F 70 48 51.8°F 45
10-13-17 62 59.5 °F 63 50 53.3°F 49 67 ↓ 60.6 °F 64 39 39.7°F 43 60 64.1 °F 58 38 36.6°F 40 70 74.7 °F 68 44 49.1°F 47
10-12-17 71 72.4 °F 71 52 55.3°F 48 64 59.5 °F 67 52 53.3°F 54 67 60.6 °F 66 45 39.7°F 42 57 64.1 °F 59 40 36.6°F 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 2 1 1 1 0 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   33.3 16.7   16.7 20.0   0.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 2.5   3.5 2.9   3.5 4.1   5.8 2.5   2.5 3.8   5.6 3.4   3.4 4.6   5.6 4.1   4.1
Net Error 0.1   -1.5 -2.1   -2.3 0.2   -0.6 -2.5   -0.3 -0.6   -2.3 -0.1   -0.6 -4.6   -5.6 -1.8   -1.8
Std Dev 1.7   3.0 1.7   2.0 2.8   4.2 2.5   1.8 3.6   5.3 3.0   3.1 4.6   5.6 4.1   4.1

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 77 ↓   78 41   45 76 ↓   79 57   56 76   80 61   64 68   71 43   47
10-17-17 73 ↓ 74.9 °F 74 48 ↑ 51.8°F 48 75 ↓   78 42   43 75   76 56   52 77   76 60   59
10-16-17 72 ↓ 74.7 °F 70 45 ↑ 49.1°F 46 73 ↓ 74.9 °F 75 48 51.8°F 49 76   80 46   46 75   79 54   55
10-15-17 63 64.1 °F 59 35 36.6°F 36 70 ↓ 74.7 °F 66 43 49.1°F 45 74 74.9 °F 76 49 51.8°F 50 74   79 48   46
10-14-17 66 60.6 °F 66 42 39.7°F 43 61 64.1 °F 58 36 36.6°F 36 71 74.7 °F 65 45 49.1°F 42 73 74.9 °F 71 48 51.8°F 44
10-13-17 62 59.5 °F 63 50 53.3°F 51 67 ↓ 60.6 °F 63 39 39.7°F 44 60 64.1 °F 58 38 36.6°F 41 70 74.7 °F 68 44 49.1°F 47
10-12-17 71 72.4 °F 70 52 55.1°F 50 64 59.5 °F 68 52 53.3°F 55 67 60.6 °F 66 45 39.7°F 42 57 64.1 °F 59 40 36.6°F 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   16.7 16.7   16.7 20.0   20.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 2.5   3.7 3.0   3.0 4.1   5.2 2.5   2.7 3.8   5.6 3.4   3.9 4.6   5.2 4.1   4.4
Net Error 0.1   -0.7 -2.3   -1.9 0.2   -0.8 -2.5   -0.3 -0.6   -2.3 -0.1   -0.6 -4.6   -5.2 -1.8   -2.2
Std Dev 1.7   2.1 1.5   1.6 2.8   4.3 2.5   2.0 3.6   5.3 3.0   3.5 4.6   5.2 4.1   4.4

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 77 ↓   77 41   47 76 ↓   78 57   53 76   74 61   66 68   75 43   50
10-17-17 73 ↓ 74.9 °F 73 48 ↑ 51.8°F 49 75 ↓   79 42   44 75   76 56   51 77   74 60   64
10-16-17 72 ↓ 74.7 °F 73 45 ↑ 49.1°F 46 73 ↓ 74.9 °F 77 48 51.8°F 46 76   76 46   43 75   75 54   52
10-15-17 63 64.1 °F 63 35 36.6°F 37 70 ↓ 74.7 °F 67 43 49.1°F 46 74 74.9 °F 76 49 51.8°F 48 74   78 48   47
10-14-17 62 60.6 °F 61 42 39.7°F 44 61 64.1 °F 59 36 36.6°F 37 71 74.7 °F 66 45 49.1°F 44 73 74.9 °F 74 48 51.8°F 46
10-13-17 60 59.5 °F 63 51 53.3°F 54 67 ↓ 60.6 °F 63 39 39.7°F 45 60 64.1 °F 58 38 36.6°F 39 70 74.7 °F 66 44 49.1°F 43
10-12-17 72 72.4 °F 71 52 55.0°F 50 64 59.5 °F 66 52 53.3°F 53 67 60.6 °F 65 45 39.7°F 42 57 64.1 °F 58 40 36.6°F 41
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 5 1 2 1 0 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ 83.3   83.3 16.7   33.3 20.0   0.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 1.3   1.7 2.9   2.7 4.1   4.8 2.5   3.0 3.8   5.1 3.4   3.4 4.6   5.2 4.1   5.4
Net Error -0.7   -0.4 -2.1   -0.9 0.2   -0.4 -2.5   -0.7 -0.6   -2.3 -0.1   -1.1 -4.6   -5.2 -1.8   -2.5
Std Dev 0.9   1.2 1.5   1.8 2.8   3.5 2.5   2.5 3.6   4.8 3.0   3.0 4.6   5.2 4.1   5.4

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 77 ↓   49 41   79 76 ↓   54 57   75 76   67 61   76 68   50 43   69
10-17-17 71 51.8°F 52 49 74.9 °F 81 77 ↓   45 41   77 76   52 60   75 76   64 60   68
10-16-17 73 ↓ 49.1°F 47 45 ↑ 74.7 °F 78 74 ↓ 51.8°F 47 48 74.9 °F 76 76   43 42   75 75   53 55   78
10-15-17 63 36.6°F 41 34 64.1 °F 69 71 ↓ 49.1°F 46 45 74.7 °F 77 73 51.8°F 49 48 74.9 °F 79 75   47 47   79
10-14-17 62 39.7°F 41 41 60.6 °F 57 63 36.6°F 36 37 64.1 °F 66 71 49.1°F 44 44 74.7 °F 73 73 51.8°F 46 48 74.9 °F 80
10-13-17 60 53.3°F 53 51 59.5 °F 63 63 ↓ 39.7°F 44 41 60.6 °F 58 61 36.6°F 39 37 64.1 °F 66 71 49.1°F 43 44 74.7 °F 74
10-12-17 72 55.0°F 50 52 72.4 °F 66 64 53.3°F 54 52 59.5 °F 65 67 39.7°F 42 45 60.6 °F 58 57 36.6°F 41 40 64.1 °F 69
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1
% Succ     50.0     0.0     40.0     40.0     0.0     50.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 19.3   2.2 22.4   4.6 20.9   2.7 22.2   2.7 23.7   3.2 25.1   2.6 21.2   5.4 27.2   3.6
Net Error 19.3   -0.3 -22.4   1.3 20.9   -0.7 -22.2   1.6 23.7   -0.8 -25.1   0.4 21.2   -2.5 -27.2   3.1
Std Dev 10.1   1.7 11.7   2.2 13.5   2.2 14.7   1.9 20.6   2.7 21.7   2.4 21.2   5.4 27.2   3.6

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 41   49 76 ↓   79 57   54 76   77 61   64 68   74 43   50 68   64
10-17-17 49 ↑ 51.8°F 49 77 ↓ 74.9 °F 79 41   44 76   77 60   52 76   71 60   64 68   70
10-16-17 45 ↑ 49.1°F 47 74 ↓ 74.7 °F 76 48 51.8°F 47 76 74.9 °F 77 42   43 75   73 55   51 76   77
10-15-17 34 36.6°F 38 71 ↓ 64.1 °F 68 45 ↑ 49.1°F 45 73 74.7 °F 76 48 51.8°F 48 75 74.9 °F 78 47   47 74   78
10-14-17 41 39.7°F 42 63 60.6 °F 58 37 36.6°F 36 71 64.1 °F 67 44 49.1°F 45 73 74.7 °F 77 48 51.8°F 50 75 74.9 °F 82
10-13-17 51 53.3°F 51 63 ↓ 59.5 °F 64 41 ↑ 39.7°F 44 61 60.6 °F 58 37 36.6°F 38 71 64.1 °F 64 44 49.1°F 43 73 74.7 °F 73
10-12-17 50 55.0°F 52 63 72.4 °F 68 53 53.3°F 55 68 59.5 °F 66 40 39.7°F 45 59 60.6 °F 59 38 36.6°F 40 71 64.1 °F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 2
% Succ 16.7   16.7 16.7   16.7 60.0   40.0 60.0   20.0 50.0   25.0 75.0   50.0 33.3   33.3 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 3.0   2.3 4.2   3.5 2.0   3.1 3.7   3.1 2.4   3.7 2.6   1.8 3.4   3.8 2.9   3.6
Net Error -2.6   -1.1 0.8   1.1 -1.3   -0.7 3.0   2.0 -2.1   -0.3 0.9   0.9 -2.5   -1.5 1.8   2.4
Std Dev 1.5   1.0 2.7   1.8 1.9   2.4 3.1   2.2 2.2   3.2 2.6   1.7 3.4   3.8 2.9   3.6

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-18-17 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-18-17 41   46 76 ↓   76 57   53 76   76 61   64 68   75 43   50 68   64
10-17-17 49 ↑ 52.4°F 49 77 ↓ 74.9 °F 77 41   44 76   77 60   52 76   72 60   65 68   71
10-16-17 45 ↑ 58.5°F 47 74 ↓ 74.7 °F 76 48 52.4°F 48 76 74.9 °F 77 42   43 75   74 55   51 76   77
10-15-17 34 59.4°F 38 71 ↓ 64.1 °F 66 45 ↑ 58.5°F 44 73 74.7 °F 75 48 52.4°F 46 75 74.9 °F 76 47   46 74   80
10-14-17 41 41.1°F 40 63 60.6 °F 56 37 59.4°F 35 71 64.1 °F 67 44 58.5°F 45 73 74.7 °F 76 48 52.4°F 49 75 74.9 °F 82
10-13-17 51 50.4°F 53 63 ↓ 59.5 °F 67 41 ↑ 41.1°F 45 61 60.6 °F 59 37 59.4°F 38 71 64.1 °F 65 44 58.5°F 43 73 74.7 °F 75
10-12-17 50 56.8°F 53 63 72.4 °F 66 53 50.4°F 54 68 59.5 °F 65 40 41.1°F 44 59 60.6 °F 59 38 59.4°F 40 71 64.1 °F 65
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 1 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 4 0 0 2 2
% Succ 33.3   16.7 16.7   33.3 20.0   0.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   0.0 75.0   100.0     0.0 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 8.3   7.3 4.2   4.0 8.6   10.2 3.7   2.5 10.6   11.1 2.6   1.2 13.4   12.8 2.9   2.8
Net Error -8.1   -6.4 0.8   0.3 -7.6   -7.2 3.0   1.8 -10.6   -9.6 0.9   0.4 -13.4   -12.8 1.8   2.8
Std Dev 9.5   7.6 2.7   2.7 8.7   9.6 3.1   1.9 9.7   9.8 2.6   1.1 13.4   12.8 2.9   2.8

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.