Current WXSIM Forecast

Thursday, 18-Jul-2019 08:00 pm

Tonight

Clear
Clear
Low: 82°
Friday

Sunny
Hot!
Sunny
Hot!
High: 105°
Friday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 79°
Saturday

Sunny
Hot!
Sunny
Hot!
High: 100°
Saturday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 70°
Sunday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 76°
Sunday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 62°
Monday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 78°
Monday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 60°

Current NWS Forecast

Thu, 18-Jul-2019 8:44pm CDT

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 80 °F ↑
Friday

Friday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 102 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 80 °F ↑
Saturday

Saturday: Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 98 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 68 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 83 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 62 °F
Monday

Monday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 84 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 61 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 78 ↑   81 102   101 79 ↑   79 102   103 79   80 99   105 72   70 89   78
07-17-19 76 86.8°F 77 97 100.5 °F 98 76   80 102   101 80   78 102   102 78   79 100   104
07-16-19 71 80.6°F 72 96 97.3 °F 96 76 86.8°F 74 103 100.5 °F 98 78   82 101   102 79   80 102   105
07-15-19 73 ↑ 75.7°F 74 91 93.4 °F 93 71 80.6°F 70 96 97.3 °F 95 74 86.8°F 73 100 100.5 °F 97 78   80 101   101
07-11-19 62 ↑ 78.6°F 64 88 94.6 °F 88 64 75.7°F 64 94 93.4 °F 93 69 80.6°F 68 93 97.3 °F 91 71 86.8°F 71 95 100.5 °F 94
07-10-19 69 ↑ 66.7°F 72 85 88.7 °F 85 62 78.6°F 63 88 94.6 °F 87 67 75.7°F 65 94 93.4 °F 93 70 80.6°F 70 94 97.3 °F 96
07-09-19 72 ↑ 75.7°F 73 90 92.0 °F 92 66 ↑ 66.7°F 70 87 88.7 °F 85 63 78.6°F 64 88 94.6 °F 87 68 75.7°F 66 94 93.4 °F 94
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 2 3 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 2
% Succ     16.7 33.3   50.0 20.0   0.0 60.0   20.0     0.0 50.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 7.6   7.1 3.3   2.4 9.9   10.8 2.5   3.3 12.2   12.9 3.0   4.5 11.4   12.0 3.1   2.8
Net Error -6.9   -5.4 -3.3   -2.4 -9.9   -9.5 -1.3   -3.3 -12.2   -12.9 -2.7   -4.5 -11.4   -12.0 -2.7   -2.4
Std Dev 5.8   5.0 2.1   2.2 6.3   6.9 1.9   2.5 10.5   11.2 2.9   3.9 11.4   12.0 3.1   2.8

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 78 ↑   81 102   101 79 ↑   79 102   103 79   80 99   105 72   70 89   78
07-17-19 76 84.1°F 100 100 100.5 °F 80 79 ↑   101 101   79 80   103 102   77 78   102 99   75
07-16-19 71 97.3 °F 72 95 77.5°F 96 76 84.1°F 74 96 100.5 °F 98 77   82 99   102 78   80 99   105
07-15-19 73 ↑ 73.8°F 97 92 93.4 °F 75 71 97.3 °F 98 92 77.5°F 73 75 84.1°F 96 100 100.5 °F 80 78   103 101   81
07-10-19 69 ↑ 94.6 °F 87 85 76.0°F 63 62 73.8°F 88 88 93.4 °F 63 67 97.3 °F 91 94 77.5°F 66 70 84.1°F 93 94 100.5 °F 71
07-09-19 72 ↑ 92.0 °F 73 90 73.3°F 92 66 ↑ 94.6 °F 70 87 76.0°F 85 63 73.8°F 64 88 93.4 °F 87 68 97.3 °F 66 94 77.5°F 94
07-08-19 69 ↑ 69.7°F 87 88 90.7 °F 71 71 ↑ 92.0 °F 87 89 73.3°F 68 70 94.6 °F 82 86 76.0°F 62 63 73.8°F 86 88 93.4 °F 65
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0     20.0     0.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 13.6   18.1 8.0   18.1 19.2   10.9 10.2   10.3 18.7   10.2 8.1   13.1 18.1   17.5 9.5   24.8
Net Error -13.6   0.8 6.4   -5.7 -19.2   -5.0 6.3   -6.7 -18.7   -4.2 5.2   -13.1 -18.1   -3.4 1.5   -13.8
Std Dev 11.0   9.3 7.4   7.8 13.9   8.4 7.5   11.9 16.9   8.8 8.0   11.9 18.1   17.5 9.5   24.8

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 102   103 79 ↑   79 102   104 79   80 99   105 72   70 89   78 67   61
07-17-19 100 100.5 °F 97 79 ↑ 81.6°F 78 101   99 80   78 102   103 78   79 99   104 73   77
07-16-19 95 97.3 °F 94 76 76.1°F 72 96 100.5 °F 95 77 81.6°F 79 99   98 78   78 99   102 78   75
07-15-19 92 93.4 °F 97 71 73.0°F 75 92 97.3 °F 98 75 76.1°F 73 100 100.5 °F 96 78 81.6°F 80 101   103 77   81
07-10-19 85 94.6 °F 87 62 74.7°F 63 88 93.4 °F 88 67 73.0°F 63 94 97.3 °F 91 70 76.1°F 66 94 100.5 °F 93 71 81.6°F 71
07-09-19 90 92.0 °F 89 66 ↑ 70.9°F 68 87 94.6 °F 87 63 74.7°F 66 88 93.4 °F 90 68 73.0°F 68 94 97.3 °F 92 71 76.1°F 70
07-08-19 88 90.7 °F 86 71 ↑ 68.0°F 68 89 92.0 °F 86 70 70.9°F 69 86 94.6 °F 83 63 74.7°F 63 88 93.4 °F 86 68 73.0°F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 0 2 2 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   0.0 33.3   33.3     20.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   0.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.1   4.3 4.2   4.1 5.2   5.0 4.9   5.3 4.5   6.5 6.6   7.1 5.1   6.7 6.9   7.9
Net Error -3.1   -3.1 -3.2   -3.4 -5.2   -4.8 -4.9   -5.3 -4.5   -6.5 -6.6   -7.1 -5.1   -6.7 -6.9   -7.9
Std Dev 3.2   2.3 4.4   3.7 3.3   3.7 3.5   4.2 4.3   5.7 5.9   6.7 5.1   6.7 6.9   7.9

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 102   99 79 ↑   80 102   105 79   79 99   101 72   69 89   84 67   61
07-17-19 100 100.5 °F 97 79 ↑ 81.6°F 78 101   99 80   78 102   103 78   79 99   104 73   77
07-16-19 95 ↓ 97.3 °F 94 76 76.1°F 72 96 100.5 °F 95 77 81.6°F 79 99   98 78   78 99   102 78   75
07-15-19 92 93.4 °F 93 71 72.5°F 72 92 97.3 °F 95 75 76.1°F 74 100 100.5 °F 97 78 81.6°F 80 101   101 77   80
07-10-19 85 94.6 °F 85 62 74.7°F 62 88 93.4 °F 88 67 72.5°F 63 94 97.3 °F 89 70 76.1°F 66 94 100.5 °F 90 71 81.6°F 70
07-09-19 90 92.0 °F 93 66 ↑ 68.6°F 70 87 94.6 °F 87 63 74.7°F 64 88 93.4 °F 89 68 72.5°F 64 94 97.3 °F 92 71 76.1°F 72
07-08-19 88 90.7 °F 89 71 ↑ 68.0°F 71 89 92.0 °F 87 70 68.6°F 69 86 94.6 °F 82 63 74.7°F 62 88 93.4 °F 86 68 72.5°F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 2 2 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   50.0 33.3   33.3     0.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   0.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.1   3.3 3.8   4.2 5.2   5.2 4.9   5.1 4.5   7.2 6.5   8.2 5.1   7.7 6.7   7.4
Net Error -3.1   -2.9 -2.8   -2.8 -5.2   -5.2 -4.3   -4.9 -4.5   -7.2 -6.5   -8.2 -5.1   -7.7 -6.7   -7.4
Std Dev 3.2   3.3 4.4   4.3 3.3   3.5 3.5   4.1 4.3   6.5 5.8   7.9 5.1   7.7 6.7   7.4

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 102   98 79 ↑   80 102   103 79   79 99   101 72   69 89   79 67   62
07-17-19 100 100.5 °F 99 79 ↑ 81.6°F 82 101   103 80   79 102   102 79   78 100   101 74   73
07-16-19 95 ↓ 97.3 °F 96 76 76.1°F 75 96 100.5 °F 97 77 81.6°F 78 99   98 78   78 99   101 78   76
07-15-19 92 93.4 °F 92 71 72.5°F 71 92 97.3 °F 94 75 76.1°F 73 100 100.5 °F 97 78 81.6°F 80 101   100 77   77
07-10-19 85 94.6 °F 85 62 74.7°F 62 88 93.4 °F 88 67 72.5°F 63 94 97.3 °F 89 70 76.1°F 66 94 100.5 °F 90 71 81.6°F 70
07-09-19 90 92.0 °F 91 66 ↑ 68.6°F 69 87 94.6 °F 85 63 74.7°F 62 88 93.4 °F 87 68 72.5°F 64 94 97.3 °F 93 71 76.1°F 67
07-08-19 88 90.7 °F 90 71 ↑ 68.0°F 71 89 92.0 °F 88 70 68.6°F 69 86 94.6 °F 84 63 74.7°F 62 88 93.4 °F 85 68 72.5°F 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 5 2 4 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   83.3 33.3   66.7     0.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   0.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.1   2.6 3.8   3.2 5.2   5.2 4.9   5.9 4.5   7.2 6.5   8.2 5.1   7.7 6.7   10.1
Net Error -3.1   -2.6 -2.8   -1.9 -5.2   -5.2 -4.3   -5.7 -4.5   -7.2 -6.5   -8.2 -5.1   -7.7 -6.7   -10.1
Std Dev 3.2   3.2 4.4   4.5 3.3   3.5 3.5   4.4 4.3   6.5 5.8   7.9 5.1   7.7 6.7   10.1

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 102 ↓   84 80 ↑   108 102   81 80   101 98   69 68   79 83   62 62   80
07-17-19 100 81.6°F 79 78 100.5 °F 99 101   77 79   101 102   78 79   101 100   73 74   81
07-16-19 95 ↓ 76.1°F 76 76 97.3 °F 97 97 81.6°F 78 76 100.5 °F 98 102   78 80   101 102   77 78   100
07-15-19 92 72.5°F 73 71 93.4 °F 94 96 76.1°F 74 76 97.3 °F 99 103 81.6°F 80 78 100.5 °F 101 101   79 79   105
07-10-19 85 74.7°F 65 62 94.6 °F 89 88 72.5°F 64 67 93.4 °F 93 94 76.1°F 67 70 97.3 °F 93 93 81.6°F 71 71 100.5 °F 92
07-09-19 90 68.6°F 91 69 ↑ 92.0 °F 69 88 74.7°F 85 62 94.6 °F 62 87 72.5°F 87 67 93.4 °F 64 94 76.1°F 93 71 97.3 °F 67
07-08-19 92 90.7 °F 70 70 68.0°F 87 91 68.6°F 69 66 92.0 °F 84 86 74.7°F 62 63 94.6 °F 85 88 72.5°F 63 69 93.4 °F 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   50.0     20.0     40.0     25.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 15.0   9.3 20.6   8.3 17.3   5.0 26.2   9.0 16.3   9.5 27.0   11.0 14.9   12.3 26.7   15.1
Net Error 15.0   -1.7 -20.0   -1.8 17.3   -0.7 -26.2   -8.4 16.3   -2.2 -27.0   -10.7 14.9   -1.1 -26.7   -15.1
Std Dev 7.5   8.8 9.8   8.8 11.1   3.8 16.7   8.2 14.3   9.1 23.4   10.8 14.9   12.3 26.7   15.1

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-18-19 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-19 80 ↑   82 102   105 80 ↑   79 98   100 68   70 83   76 62   62 84   78
07-17-19 78 81.6°F 80 101 100.5 °F 100 79   79 102   103 79   79 100   101 74   70 92   81
07-16-19 76 76.1°F 77 97 97.3 °F 96 76 81.6°F 79 102 100.5 °F 100 80   80 102   103 78   78 100   93
07-15-19 71 72.5°F 73 96 93.4 °F 94 76 76.1°F 74 103 97.3 °F 95 78 81.6°F 80 101 100.5 °F 99 79   77 102   103
07-09-19 69 ↑ 74.7°F 91 88 94.6 °F 69 62 72.5°F 85 87 93.4 °F 62 67 76.1°F 87 94 97.3 °F 64 71 81.6°F 93 94 100.5 °F 67
07-08-19 70 90.7 °F 70 91 68.0°F 85 66 ↑ 74.7°F 68 86 94.6 °F 82 63 72.5°F 61 88 93.4 °F 86 69 76.1°F 64 94 97.3 °F 90
07-07-19 69 70.9°F 72 87 89.0 °F 91 71 90.7 °F 70 90 68.0°F 86 70 74.7°F 69 87 94.6 °F 84 64 72.5°F 62 88 93.4 °F 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 4 3 4 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   66.7 50.0   66.7 20.0   0.0 20.0   20.0     25.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 5.6   6.9 5.8   7.8 8.9   8.9 8.8   13.0 6.7   7.4 4.2   13.2 8.7   11.3 5.1   16.4
Net Error -5.6   -0.6 2.9   -1.3 -8.9   -3.9 2.8   -5.8 -6.7   -2.0 -4.0   -13.2 -8.7   -3.7 -5.1   -16.4
Std Dev 7.2   8.5 8.2   10.1 7.1   7.2 6.7   13.7 6.0   7.1 4.1   12.8 8.7   11.3 5.1   16.4

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-17-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-17-19 78   81 101   101 79   79 102   103 79   78 100   101 74   70 92   82
07-16-19 76 89.4°F 76 97 97.3 °F 98 76   79 102   100 80   79 102   102 78   77 100   93
07-15-19 71 81.8°F 73 96 93.4 °F 94 76 89.4°F 74 103 97.3 °F 95 78   80 101   99 79   77 102   103
07-14-19 73 79.7°F 73 91 94.6 °F 92 71 81.8°F 70 96 93.4 °F 94 74 89.4°F 73 100 97.3 °F 97 78   80 101   101
07-10-19 62 81.5°F 64 88 93.2 °F 88 67 79.7°F 64 94 94.6 °F 93 70 81.8°F 68 93 93.4 °F 91 71 89.4°F 71 95 97.3 °F 94
07-09-19 69 ↑ 70.6°F 72 88 92.0 °F 85 62 81.5°F 63 87 93.2 °F 87 67 79.7°F 65 94 94.6 °F 93 71 81.8°F 70 94 93.4 °F 96
07-08-19 69 ↑ 78.8°F 73 91 90.7 °F 89 66 ↑ 70.6°F 69 86 92.0 °F 84 63 81.5°F 62 88 93.2 °F 89 69 79.7°F 64 94 94.6 °F 93
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 2 3 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 1
% Succ 16.7   16.7 33.3   50.0     20.0 20.0   40.0     0.0 50.0   50.0     0.0 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 10.3   8.9 2.7   3.0 12.2   12.6 4.2   3.7 14.6   16.1 2.2   2.1 13.3   15.3 1.2   2.5
Net Error -10.3   -8.5 -1.7   -2.5 -12.2   -12.6 -0.9   -3.5 -14.6   -16.1 -0.9   -2.1 -13.3   -15.3 -0.8   -0.8
Std Dev 6.9   6.3 1.9   2.6 7.8   8.2 3.3   3.0 12.7   13.9 1.9   2.1 13.3   15.3 1.2   2.5

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.