Current WXSIM Forecast

Wednesday, 24-May-2017 05:00 pm

Tonight

Fair
Fair
Low: 49°
Thursday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 74°
Thursday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 55°
Friday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 76°
Friday
night
Chance rain
Chance rain
Low: 53°
Saturday

Rain likely
Rain likely
High: 67°
Saturday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 53°
Sunday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 74°
Sunday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 53°

Current NWS Forecast

Wed, 24-May-2017 4:35pm CDT

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 48 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 76 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms

Lo 58 °F
Friday

Friday: Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny

Hi 80 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Partly Cloudy then Chance Showers And T-Storms

Lo 56 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And T-Storms

Hi 72 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Cloudy
Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Cloudy

Lo 53 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 74 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 51 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-24-17 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-24-17 45   48 65   67 47   47 76   75 57   54 78   76 56   57 72   67
05-23-17 49 50.1°F 51 60 62.1 °F 63 46   44 66   63 47   44 75   74 56   56 76   76
05-22-17 50 53.5°F 53 74 73.0 °F 75 48 50.1°F 52 63 62.1 °F 64 45   45 65   64 47   46 74   73
05-21-17 41 50.9°F 42 66 72.2 °F 65 49 53.5°F 46 75 73.0 °F 74 49 50.1°F 48 65 62.1 °F 64 46   42 66   64
05-20-17 45 44.0°F 46 52 54.4 °F 55 42 50.9°F 39 70 72.2 °F 61 50 53.5°F 45 74 73.0 °F 74 49 50.1°F 48 63 62.1 °F 63
05-19-17 51 48.4°F 49 56 54.9 °F 58 47 44.0°F 45 57 54.4 °F 56 43 50.9°F 37 68 72.2 °F 62 47 53.5°F 43 71 73.0 °F 62
05-18-17 53 52.3°F 51 67 66.4 °F 68 51 48.4°F 46 61 54.9 °F 53 51 44.0°F 47 63 54.4 °F 62 45 50.9°F 45 71 72.2 °F 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 5 3 4 0 2 2 4 1 0 1 2 1 0 3 1
% Succ 50.0   83.3 50.0   66.7     40.0 40.0   80.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   50.0 33.3   0.0 100.0   33.3
Ave Error 3.1   2.4 2.2   2.6 4.2   4.9 2.8   3.5 4.9   6.9 4.2   5.2 4.5   6.2 1.4   8.0
Net Error -1.7   -1.2 -1.3   0.2 -2.0   -3.8 1.9   -1.7 -1.4   -5.4 2.1   0.1 -4.5   -6.2 -0.8   -7.4
Std Dev 3.3   3.1 2.0   2.4 3.5   4.8 2.0   4.3 4.6   6.4 3.7   4.8 4.5   6.2 1.4   8.0

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-24-17 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-24-17 45   66 65   47 47   74 76   53 57   76 78   56 56   71 72   53
05-23-17 49 ↑ 62.1 °F 64 60 47.3°F 48 47   67 66   47 47   72 76   53 57   75 76   56
05-22-17 50 73.0 °F 76 72 49.5°F 51 49 62.1 °F 63 61 47.3°F 46 45   65 66   47 47   74 75   54
05-21-17 41 72.2 °F 66 67 50.9°F 46 50 73.0 °F 73 75 49.5°F 48 48 62.1 °F 63 64 47.3°F 40 46   63 67   44
05-20-17 45 54.4 °F 59 53 41.6°F 44 41 72.2 °F 64 67 50.9°F 46 50 73.0 °F 75 74 49.5°F 51 49 62.1 °F 65 64 47.3°F 45
05-19-17 51 54.9 °F 58 56 48.3°F 46 47 54.4 °F 53 57 41.6°F 37 43 72.2 °F 62 68 50.9°F 46 47 73.0 °F 69 71 49.5°F 47
05-18-17 53 66.4 °F 68 65 52.0°F 46 51 54.9 °F 52 58 48.3°F 45 49 54.4 °F 61 60 41.6°F 43 44 72.2 °F 60 69 50.9°F 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
% Succ     33.3     33.3     60.0     40.0     50.0     50.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 15.7   3.4 13.9   3.0 15.7   2.7 16.1   3.1 17.9   4.9 19.2   3.8 22.4   6.4 18.8   3.2
Net Error -15.7   1.3 13.9   -1.4 -15.7   -2.3 16.1   -3.1 -17.9   -0.2 19.2   -2.3 -22.4   -4.4 18.8   -3.2
Std Dev 11.0   2.0 7.3   1.9 12.6   3.3 11.1   2.4 15.6   4.7 16.7   3.7 22.4   6.4 18.8   3.2

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-24-17 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-24-17 66   65 47   45 76   74 57   53 80   75 56   56 73   70 53   53
05-23-17 60 62.1 °F 62 47 46.6°F 44 66   64 47   43 76   70 57   50 76   73 55   53
05-22-17 72 73.0 °F 74 49 48.5°F 53 61 62.1 °F 63 45 46.6°F 44 66   64 47   45 75   73 57   55
05-21-17 67 72.2 °F 63 50 50.9°F 48 75 73.0 °F 72 48 48.5°F 48 64 62.1 °F 62 46 46.6°F 43 67   61 47   43
05-20-17 53 54.4 °F 56 41 41.4°F 42 67 72.2 °F 64 50 50.9°F 44 74 73.0 °F 73 49 48.5°F 49 64 62.1 °F 64 46 46.6°F 46
05-19-17 56 54.9 °F 55 45 48.3°F 44 54 54.4 °F 53 42 41.4°F 38 69 72.2 °F 62 49 50.9°F 45 72 73.0 °F 69 49 48.5°F 47
05-18-17 65 66.4 °F 68 51 51.4°F 46 58 54.9 °F 51 49 48.3°F 42 60 54.4 °F 52 44 41.4°F 41 69 72.2 °F 61 48 50.9°F 47
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 5 5 1 3 3 5 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2
% Succ 66.7   83.3 83.3   16.7 60.0   60.0 100.0   20.0 50.0   50.0 75.0   50.0 66.7   33.3 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 2.0   2.3 1.0   3.4 2.4   3.1 0.9   3.9 2.9   3.2 1.4   2.6 2.0   5.7 1.3   2.0
Net Error -1.7   -0.8 -0.7   -1.7 -0.3   -2.7 -0.3   -3.9 1.3   -3.2 0.2   -2.4 -0.8   -4.4 -1.0   -2.0
Std Dev 1.7   3.3 1.1   1.9 2.0   3.3 0.7   3.3 2.6   3.2 1.3   2.3 2.0   5.7 1.3   2.0

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-24-17 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-24-17 66   66 47   48 76   75 57   56 80   75 56   53 73   63 53   52
05-23-17 60 62.1 °F 63 47 46.6°F 43 66   63 47   42 76   70 57   50 76   73 55   53
05-22-17 72 73.0 °F 74 49 48.5°F 52 61 62.1 °F 63 45 46.6°F 44 66   64 47   45 75   74 57   55
05-21-17 67 72.2 °F 64 50 50.9°F 48 75 73.0 °F 71 48 48.5°F 49 64 62.1 °F 62 46 46.6°F 43 67   61 47   43
05-20-17 53 54.4 °F 60 41 41.4°F 47 67 72.2 °F 65 50 50.9°F 45 74 73.0 °F 73 49 48.5°F 50 64 62.1 °F 64 46 46.6°F 46
05-19-17 56 54.9 °F 54 45 48.3°F 44 54 54.4 °F 55 42 41.4°F 41 69 72.2 °F 61 49 50.9°F 45 72 73.0 °F 73 49 48.5°F 50
05-18-17 65 66.4 °F 68 51 51.2°F 48 58 54.9 °F 55 49 48.3°F 45 60 54.4 °F 52 44 41.4°F 39 69 72.2 °F 59 48 50.9°F 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 5 0 3 4 5 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2
% Succ 66.7   66.7 83.3   0.0 60.0   80.0 100.0   40.0 50.0   50.0 75.0   25.0 66.7   66.7 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 2.0   3.0 0.9   3.9 2.4   2.2 0.9   2.5 2.9   3.4 1.4   3.4 2.0   5.0 1.3   2.3
Net Error -1.7   -0.0 -0.7   -0.8 -0.3   -1.5 -0.3   -2.3 1.3   -3.4 0.2   -2.6 -0.8   -3.8 -1.0   -1.3
Std Dev 1.7   3.0 1.1   1.8 2.0   2.7 0.7   2.4 2.6   3.4 1.3   2.9 2.0   5.0 1.3   2.3

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-24-17 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-24-17 69   68 48   48 76   75 58   56 80   75 56   54 72   63 53   52
05-23-17 60 ↓ 62.1 °F 63 47 46.6°F 44 66   64 47   44 76   70 57   51 76   73 55   53
05-22-17 73 73.0 °F 73 49 48.5°F 52 61 62.1 °F 62 45 46.6°F 43 66   64 47   44 75   73 57   55
05-21-17 67 72.2 °F 68 50 50.9°F 49 75 73.0 °F 74 48 48.5°F 50 64 62.1 °F 63 46 46.6°F 44 67   61 47   44
05-20-17 54 54.4 °F 58 41 41.4°F 43 67 72.2 °F 64 50 50.9°F 46 74 73.0 °F 72 49 48.5°F 49 64 62.1 °F 65 46 46.6°F 44
05-19-17 56 54.9 °F 57 45 48.3°F 48 54 54.4 °F 58 42 41.4°F 44 69 72.2 °F 63 49 50.9°F 46 72 73.0 °F 74 49 48.5°F 50
05-18-17 65 66.4 °F 65 51 51.2°F 49 58 54.9 °F 55 49 48.3°F 46 60 54.4 °F 52 44 41.4°F 39 69 72.2 °F 59 48 50.9°F 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 3 5 3 3 3 5 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 2 1
% Succ 66.7   50.0 83.3   50.0 60.0   60.0 100.0   20.0 50.0   50.0 75.0   25.0 66.7   33.3 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 1.7   2.0 0.9   2.0 2.4   2.6 0.9   3.0 2.9   3.4 1.4   2.6 2.0   5.7 1.3   3.0
Net Error -1.3   0.2 -0.7   -0.3 -0.3   -0.7 -0.3   -1.3 1.3   -2.9 0.2   -2.4 -0.8   -3.1 -1.0   -2.0
Std Dev 1.8   1.7 1.1   1.3 2.0   3.3 0.7   2.2 2.6   3.2 1.3   2.3 2.0   5.7 1.3   3.0

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-24-17 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-24-17 69 ↓   49 48   74 76   55 58   76 80   53 56   67 72   53 53   74
05-23-17 60 ↓ 46.6°F 48 45 62.1 °F 67 65   47 47   73 76   52 57   74 78   55 56   66
05-22-17 73 ↓ 48.5°F 52 49 73.0 °F 62 60 46.6°F 43 46 62.1 °F 63 66   43 47   71 75   52 56   73
05-21-17 67 50.9°F 50 50 72.2 °F 74 74 48.5°F 51 48 73.0 °F 63 63 46.6°F 44 45 62.1 °F 62 65   45 47   73
05-20-17 55 41.4°F 48 41 54.4 °F 63 66 50.9°F 46 49 72.2 °F 73 75 48.5°F 49 49 73.0 °F 66 65 46.6°F 44 46 62.1 °F 62
05-19-17 56 48.3°F 46 45 54.9 °F 55 52 41.4°F 38 42 54.4 °F 61 70 50.9°F 44 50 72.2 °F 73 74 48.5°F 48 49 73.0 °F 61
05-18-17 65 51.2°F 49 51 66.4 °F 58 58 48.3°F 46 49 54.9 °F 54 60 41.4°F 38 44 54.4 °F 63 69 50.9°F 44 48 72.2 °F 69
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1
% Succ     33.3     33.3     0.0     60.0     25.0     50.0     33.3     33.3
Ave Error 14.9   2.8 17.0   5.8 14.9   3.3 16.5   3.8 20.2   3.4 18.4   4.1 20.7   3.3 21.4   5.1
Net Error 14.9   1.0 -17.0   -0.7 14.9   -2.3 -16.5   -0.5 20.2   -3.1 -18.4   0.6 20.7   -3.3 -21.4   -5.1
Std Dev 7.9   2.2 8.5   4.4 10.6   2.3 11.5   4.1 17.6   2.9 16.0   4.1 20.7   3.3 21.4   5.1

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-23-17 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-23-17 45   45 65   65 47   44 76   75 57   54 78   76 56   57 72   67
05-22-17 49 48.5°F 51 60 73.0 °F 62 46   44 66   63 47   44 75   73 56   55 76   75
05-21-17 50 50.9°F 51 74 72.2 °F 73 48 48.5°F 50 63 73.0 °F 62 45   44 65   63 47   45 74   73
05-20-17 41 41.4°F 46 66 54.4 °F 63 49 50.9°F 46 75 72.2 °F 74 49 48.5°F 47 65 73.0 °F 63 46   43 66   64
05-19-17 45 48.3°F 45 52 54.9 °F 54 42 41.4°F 38 70 54.4 °F 61 50 50.9°F 44 74 72.2 °F 73 49 48.5°F 46 63 73.0 °F 62
05-18-17 51 51.2°F 49 56 66.4 °F 57 47 48.3°F 44 57 54.9 °F 54 43 41.4°F 37 68 54.4 °F 61 47 50.9°F 41 71 72.2 °F 63
05-17-17 53 54.1°F 56 68 76.2 °F 71 51 51.2°F 48 61 66.4 °F 53 51 48.3°F 45 63 54.9 °F 59 45 41.4°F 43 71 54.4 °F 62
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 2 1 2 5 1 0 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
% Succ 83.3   33.3 16.7   33.3 100.0   20.0     40.0 75.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 1.1   2.4 8.0   6.0 0.9   3.5 7.2   6.7 1.4   4.0 7.9   5.4 2.7   4.7 9.3   9.3
Net Error -0.9   0.6 -3.5   -2.9 -0.7   -2.9 1.0   -3.4 1.0   -4.0 3.9   0.4 0.1   -3.6 1.8   -4.2
Std Dev 1.1   1.7 5.4   4.7 0.8   2.4 6.3   5.2 1.3   3.7 6.8   5.2 2.7   4.7 9.3   9.3

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-23-17 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-23-17 45   45 65   65 47   45 76   74 57   53 78   76 56   56 72   67
05-22-17 49 52.5°F 51 60 73.0 °F 63 46   45 66   63 47   44 75   74 56   55 76   76
05-21-17 50 55.1°F 48 74 72.2 °F 74 48 52.5°F 50 63 73.0 °F 63 45   45 65   64 47   45 74   73
05-20-17 41 53.0°F 44 66 54.4 °F 64 49 55.1°F 48 75 72.2 °F 75 49 52.5°F 47 65 73.0 °F 62 46   41 66   64
05-19-17 45 46.3°F 47 52 54.9 °F 56 42 53.0°F 40 70 54.4 °F 62 50 55.1°F 45 74 72.2 °F 74 49 52.5°F 48 63 73.0 °F 63
05-18-17 51 48.7°F 50 56 66.4 °F 58 47 46.3°F 45 57 54.9 °F 56 43 53.0°F 37 68 54.4 °F 62 47 55.1°F 44 71 72.2 °F 62
05-17-17 53 53.0°F 51 67 76.2 °F 67 51 48.7°F 47 61 66.4 °F 53 51 46.3°F 45 63 54.9 °F 60 45 53.0°F 44 71 54.4 °F 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
% Succ 33.3   66.7 16.7   33.3 20.0   40.0     20.0     25.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 4.0   3.6 8.2   6.7 4.9   5.1 7.2   7.0 5.8   8.2 7.9   6.4 6.5   8.2 9.3   9.6
Net Error -3.3   -2.9 -3.7   -2.5 -3.7   -5.1 1.0   -2.4 -3.5   -8.2 3.9   0.9 -6.5   -8.2 1.8   -3.9
Std Dev 3.9   3.5 5.4   4.5 4.2   5.0 6.3   5.0 5.2   7.3 6.8   6.0 6.5   8.2 9.3   9.6

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.