Current WXSIM Forecast

Saturday, 08-May-2021 08:00 am

Today

Cloudy
Cloudy
High: 60°
Tonight

Rain likely
Rain likely
Low: 44°
Sunday

Cloudy
Cloudy
High: 52°
Sunday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 38°
Monday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 53°
Monday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 40°
Tuesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
High: 47°
Tuesday
night
Rain likely
Rain likely
Low: 42°
Wednesday

Overcast
Overcast
High: 50°

Current NWS Forecast

Sat, 08-May-2021 8:29am CDT

Rest Of
Today
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Hi >65°F
Tonight

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Lo <45°F
Sunday

Chance rain
Chance rain
Hi ≈55°F
Sunday
Night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Lo >35°F
Monday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Hi ≈60°F
Monday
Night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Lo <45°F
Tuesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
Hi ≈60°F
Tuesday
Night
Chance rain
Chance rain
Lo <45°F
Wednesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
Hi <65°F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-08-21 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-08-21 >45   54 <65   62 <45   44 55   53 >35   40 60   50 <45   40 >55   50
05-07-21 45 58.4°F 47 <75 71.2 °F 73 50   53 65   66 45   46 55   53 >35   42 >55   55
05-06-21 <45 51.3°F 48 65 70.3 °F 66 <45 58.4°F 45 >65 71.2 °F 74 >45   52 <65   61 45   50 <65   52
05-05-21 >35 46.3°F 37 >65 67.1 °F 67 <45 51.3°F 44 65 70.3 °F 63 45 58.4°F 42 70 71.2 °F 70 <55   52 70   61
05-04-21 <45 40.1°F 47 65 66.5 °F 63 40 46.3°F 42 65 67.1 °F 63 <45 51.3°F 44 65 70.3 °F 62 45 58.4°F 39 <75 71.2 °F 64
05-03-21 55 50.7°F 57 65 65.6 °F 60 <45 40.1°F 48 <65 66.5 °F 62 40 46.3°F 42 65 67.1 °F 60 45 51.3°F 47 65 70.3 °F 61
05-02-21 <65 60.8°F 61 <85 83.5 °F 84 55 50.7°F 61 65 65.6 °F 64 45 40.1°F 54 65 66.5 °F 62 <45 46.3°F 48 65 67.1 °F 62
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7 33.3   50.0     0.0 20.0   20.0     0.0 50.0   25.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 36.0   6.2 38.2   2.6 32.1   8.6 29.1   4.1 19.0   10.5 2.5   5.3 22.0   8.5 26.2   7.2
Net Error -34.6   -1.8 -38.2   -1.9 -30.4   -1.4 -29.1   -2.9 -16.5   -3.5 -2.5   -5.3 -22.0   -7.3 -26.2   -7.2
Std Dev 23.0   3.7 34.7   2.1 27.5   6.2 30.9   3.0 16.7   9.5 2.3   5.0 22.0   8.5 26.2   7.2

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-08-21 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-08-21   58 >65   44 <45   54 55   41 >35   51 60   41 <45   50 60   42
05-07-21   72 <75 71.2 °F 54 >45   68 65   46 45   53 55   42 >35   55 >55   41
05-06-21   45 65 70.3 °F 65 <45 58.0°F 44 >65 71.2 °F 73 50   54 <65   64 45   53 55   56
05-05-21   66 >65 67.1 °F 43 <45 47.7°F 63 65 70.3 °F 41 <45 58.0°F 70 >65 71.2 °F 52 >45   61 65   46
05-04-21   63 65 66.5 °F 41 >35 41.2°F 62 65 67.1 °F 44 <45 47.7°F 62 65 70.3 °F 39 45 58.0°F 64 >65 71.2 °F 47
05-03-21   63 <65 65.6 °F 47 45 37.2°F 61 <65 66.5 °F 41 40 41.2°F 60 65 67.1 °F 47 45 47.7°F 61 65 70.3 °F 43
05-02-21 62 ↑ 56.6°F 88 82 83.5 °F 60 55 ↑ 47.9°F 66 65 65.6 °F 57 44 37.2°F 64 64 66.5 °F 50 41 41.2°F 63 64 67.1 °F 51
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 5.4   31.4 35.4   19.0 32.4   18.4 29.1   17.7 28.4   18.0 20.3   21.8 5.3   13.7 26.5   22.5
Net Error 5.4   31.4 -35.4   -19.0 -26.4   12.8 -29.1   -16.9 -25.0   18.0 -20.3   -21.8 -5.3   13.7 -26.5   -22.5
Std Dev 5.4   31.4 32.9   10.2 24.8   11.9 30.9   14.4 28.7   15.9 30.9   18.9 5.3   13.7 26.5   22.5

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-08-21 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-08-21 >65   60 <45   44 55   52 >35   38 60   53 <45   40 60   47 <45   42
05-07-21 72 71.2 °F 70 50 55.9°F 51 64 ↓   65 43   45 57   51 39   39 60   54 41   41
05-06-21 67 70.3 °F 63 43 46.4°F 42 70 ↓ 71.2 °F 73 50 55.9°F 52 62   63 45   52 57   55 41   43
05-05-21 65 39.5°F 65 <45 67.1 °F 45 65 70.3 °F 64 <45 46.4°F 42 >65 71.2 °F 66 >45 55.9°F 50 65   59 45   49
05-04-21 65 66.5 °F 60 >35 36.4°F 39 65 39.5°F 64 <45 67.1 °F 45 65 70.3 °F 62 45 46.4°F 41 >65 71.2 °F 63 <55 55.9°F 51
05-03-21 63 65.6 °F 60 44 ↑ 46.2°F 45 64 ↓ 66.5 °F 63 40 36.4°F 43 65 39.5°F 60 45 67.1 °F 47 66 70.3 °F 62 44 46.4°F 42
05-02-21 82 83.5 °F 82 55 ↑ 53.3°F 57 65 65.6 °F 59 44 46.2°F 47 64 66.5 °F 62 41 36.4°F 45 64 39.5°F 61 46 67.1 °F 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   33.3 16.7   16.7 40.0   20.0     20.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 5.9   7.9 19.5   6.5 7.0   8.5 25.0   7.6 26.1   9.6 21.0   10.0 33.3   12.7 26.5   10.1
Net Error 2.9   0.6 -18.9   -4.4 3.2   2.0 -23.6   -4.6 -13.4   0.6 -18.7   -5.7 -17.0   1.7 -26.5   -10.1
Std Dev 9.0   8.4 24.7   7.5 9.8   9.5 27.7   8.4 31.9   8.6 25.2   8.9 33.3   12.7 26.5   10.1

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-07-21 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-07-21 72   73 50   55 64 ↓   70 43   45 57   52 39   40 60   55 41   42
05-06-21 65 70.3 °F 63 <45 46.4°F 44 >65   71 50   47 <65   56 45   44 55   51 40   40
05-05-21 65 67.1 °F 68 <45 39.5°F 47 65 70.3 °F 65 <45 46.4°F 42 >65   67 >45   50 65   60 45   49
05-04-21 66 ↓ 66.5 °F 60 39 ↑ 36.4°F 37 66 ↓ 67.1 °F 64 43 39.5°F 45 66 70.3 °F 63 45 46.4°F 41 69   63 51   51
05-03-21 <65 65.6 °F 59 45 46.2°F 43 <65 66.5 °F 63 40 36.4°F 42 65 67.1 °F 58 45 39.5°F 45 65 70.3 °F 62 <45 46.4°F 41
05-02-21 83 ↓ 83.5 °F 84 55 ↑ 53.3°F 58 65 65.6 °F 61 44 46.2°F 49 64 66.5 °F 62 41 36.4°F 46 64 67.1 °F 61 46 39.5°F 46
05-01-21 59 ↑ 87.7 °F 85 90 ↓ 62.8°F 62 62 ↑ 83.5 °F 81 82 53.3°F 57 56 65.6 °F 64 66 46.2°F 53 47 66.5 °F 63 64 36.4°F 47
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   33.3 33.3   33.3 40.0   0.0     0.0     25.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 17.1   4.1 19.8   3.2 19.0   3.8 16.9   4.4 4.6   5.6 7.8   6.8 9.3   6.0 26.8   7.5
Net Error -17.1   -3.6 -9.3   1.1 -19.0   -3.8 -2.6   2.6 -4.6   -5.6 7.1   4.1 -9.3   -6.0 -4.1   3.9
Std Dev 24.4   3.2 20.2   2.5 26.4   2.5 19.0   2.9 4.0   4.9 7.5   6.0 9.3   6.0 26.8   7.5

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-07-21 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-07-21 70   68 50   48 64 ↓   59 43   43 57   52 39   40 60   56 41   40
05-06-21 67 70.3 °F 66 43 46.4°F 45 70 ↓   71 50   48 62   60 45   45 57   52 41   43
05-05-21 65 67.1 °F 67 <45 39.5°F 45 65 70.3 °F 64 <45 46.4°F 43 >65   69 >45   46 65   53 45   42
05-04-21 65 66.5 °F 63 >35 36.4°F 38 65 67.1 °F 65 <45 39.5°F 43 65 70.3 °F 63 45 46.4°F 39 >65   63 <55   52
05-03-21 60 65.6 °F 68 <45 46.2°F 53 <65 66.5 °F 67 40 36.4°F 47 65 67.1 °F 60 45 39.5°F 44 65 70.3 °F 63 <45 46.4°F 42
05-02-21 <85 83.5 °F 85 55 53.3°F 60 65 65.6 °F 63 45 46.2°F 49 <65 66.5 °F 61 <45 36.4°F 47 <65 67.1 °F 58 45 39.5°F 47
05-01-21 59 ↑ 87.7 °F 86 90 ↓ 62.8°F 62 62 ↑ 83.5 °F 82 82 53.3°F 60 56 65.6 °F 63 66 46.2°F 51 47 66.5 °F 62 64 36.4°F 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   50.0 16.7   50.0 20.0   40.0 20.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 20.8   2.3 25.7   3.8 19.2   2.6 23.9   5.4 20.9   5.6 15.8   6.8 30.6   7.0 26.5   6.2
Net Error -20.8   -0.9 -16.1   3.1 -19.2   -2.4 -11.0   4.0 -20.9   -5.6 -3.1   3.1 -30.6   -7.0 -4.4   3.2
Std Dev 30.6   1.6 20.3   2.7 26.3   2.5 21.5   4.3 19.7   4.9 15.4   5.9 30.6   7.0 26.5   6.2

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-07-21 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-07-21   51 >45   66 <65   46 <45   54 55   41 >35   56 60   40 <45   50
05-06-21 67 70.3 °F 46 43 46.4°F 72 70 ↓   48 50   61 62   45 45   52 57   43 41   52
05-05-21   45 <45 39.5°F 64 65 70.3 °F 43 <45 46.4°F 69 >65   46 >45   53 <65   42 45   56
05-04-21   41 >35 36.4°F 66 65 67.1 °F 44 <45 39.5°F 64 65 70.3 °F 40 45 46.4°F 64 70   52 <55   60
05-03-21   50 <45 46.2°F 65 <65 66.5 °F 43 40 36.4°F 60 65 67.1 °F 43 <45 39.5°F 63 65 70.3 °F 41 45 46.4°F 65
05-02-21 55 83.5 °F 60 65 53.3°F 62 <45 65.6 °F 48 <65 46.2°F 61 40 66.5 °F 46 65 36.4°F 57 45 67.1 °F 47 65 39.5°F 59
05-01-21 59 ↑ 87.7 °F 63 90 ↓ 62.8°F 84 62 ↑ 83.5 °F 64 82 53.3°F 66 56 65.6 °F 53 66 46.2°F 63 47 66.5 °F 44 64 36.4°F 58
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 20.2   24.2 27.4   21.4 32.2   22.2 32.9   19.6 10.9   21.9 22.3   19.6 15.6   24.0 18.2   19.9
Net Error -20.2   -24.2 -14.4   21.4 -32.2   -22.2 -20.0   19.6 -10.9   -21.9 1.9   19.6 -15.6   -24.0 17.2   19.9
Std Dev 19.1   19.7 18.9   11.0 31.2   14.2 25.5   12.8 9.8   19.4 22.0   17.0 15.6   24.0 18.2   19.9

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-07-21 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-07-21 50 ↑   50 64 ↓   57 43 ↑   43 55   51 37   39 60   57 41   40 60   53
05-06-21 45 46.4°F 47 <75 70.3 °F 72 50   49 65   58 45   44 >55   50 >35   39 60   47
05-05-21 <45 39.5°F 45 65 67.1 °F 64 <45 46.4°F 43 >65 70.3 °F 69 >45   46 <65   53 45   42 <65   56
05-04-21 >35 66.5 °F 42 65 36.4°F 67 <45 39.5°F 44 65 67.1 °F 63 45 46.4°F 42 70 70.3 °F 69 <55   53 70   63
05-03-21 <45 46.2°F 50 65 65.6 °F 65 40 66.5 °F 43 65 36.4°F 61 <45 39.5°F 49 65 67.1 °F 64 45 46.4°F 42 <75 70.3 °F 66
05-02-21 55 53.3°F 61 65 83.5 °F 63 <45 46.2°F 50 <65 65.6 °F 61 40 66.5 °F 44 65 36.4°F 58 45 39.5°F 45 65 67.1 °F 61
05-01-21 <65 62.8°F 63 <85 87.7 °F 81 55 53.3°F 61 65 83.5 °F 64 45 46.2°F 52 65 65.6 °F 63 <45 66.5 °F 46 65 36.4°F 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   33.3 16.7   33.3 20.0   0.0     20.0 50.0   0.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 36.4   7.1 34.6   10.5 32.1   8.6 37.0   10.8 17.2   10.6 7.9   7.2 24.5   10.1 33.7   10.3
Net Error -35.8   -1.1 -25.1   0.2 -31.4   -2.2 -25.6   -1.0 -17.2   -2.9 6.4   3.7 -20.8   -6.5 -14.6   3.4
Std Dev 28.2   8.3 28.8   11.9 21.7   9.1 32.1   10.6 16.8   9.6 7.8   6.8 24.5   10.1 33.7   10.3

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-07-21 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-07-21 >45   53 <65   61 <45   44 55   54 >35   40 60   56 <45   40 >55   53
05-06-21 45 59.3°F 46 <75 70.3 °F 72 50   52 65   62 45   46 >55   52 >35   40 60   48
05-05-21 <45 52.3°F 50 65 67.1 °F 66 <45 59.3°F 46 >65 70.3 °F 73 >45   52 <65   60 45   50 <65   52
05-04-21 >35 49.5°F 39 65 66.5 °F 67 <45 52.3°F 45 65 67.1 °F 64 45 59.3°F 42 70 70.3 °F 70 <55   53 70   63
05-03-21 43 46.4°F 48 66 65.6 °F 63 40 ↑ 49.5°F 43 65 66.5 °F 63 44 52.3°F 45 66 67.1 °F 62 44 59.3°F 39 71 70.3 °F 64
05-02-21 55 55.5°F 58 65 83.5 °F 61 <45 46.4°F 49 <65 65.6 °F 61 40 49.5°F 44 65 66.5 °F 59 45 52.3°F 45 65 67.1 °F 61
05-01-21 <65 67.8°F 65 <85 87.7 °F 82 55 55.5°F 61 65 83.5 °F 64 45 46.4°F 54 65 65.6 °F 63 <45 49.5°F 47 65 66.5 °F 58
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 2 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 4 1 0 0 2 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 33.3   50.0 20.0   0.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 100.0   25.0     0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 31.3   5.5 30.1   5.7 33.6   7.0 31.6   6.7 8.4   9.4 0.9   3.9 24.0   10.0 1.4   7.0
Net Error -31.3   -4.1 -30.0   -5.0 -33.6   -3.8 -31.6   -5.6 -8.4   -5.6 -0.9   -3.9 -24.0   -10.0 -1.0   -7.0
Std Dev 25.1   5.0 29.3   8.0 27.7   5.3 32.5   5.1 7.8   9.1 0.8   3.8 24.0   10.0 1.4   7.0

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.