Current WXSIM Forecast

Thursday, 15-Nov-2018 11:00 am

This
afternoon
Clear
Clear
High: 52°
Tonight

Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 25°
Friday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 52°
Friday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Cold!
Mostly Cloudy
Cold!
Low: 33°
Saturday

Cloudy
Cloudy
High: 35°
Saturday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 21°
Sunday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 43°
Sunday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 22°
Monday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 50°

Current NWS Forecast

Thu, 15-Nov-2018 12:35pm CST

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 58 °F ↓
Tonight

Tonight: Clear
Clear

Lo 27 °F
Friday

Friday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 54 °F ↓
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain And Snow
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain And Snow

Lo 28 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Chance Light Snow
Chance Light Snow

Hi 28 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Chance Light Snow then Mostly Cloudy
Chance Light Snow then Mostly Cloudy

Lo 17 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 36 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 22 °F
Monday

Monday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 45 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 11-15-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-15-18 25   29 54 ↓   59 28   31 54   60 27   36 29   37 18   22 35   45
11-13-18 11 32.0°F 10 37 ↓ 48.8 °F 41 20   19 47   47 24   24 52   53 29   26 51   60
11-12-18 20 11.0°F 24 27 ↓ 27.0 °F 31 12 32.0°F 12 35 48.8 °F 39 20   20 47   49 26   23 50   58
11-11-18 24 25.0°F 23 37 ↓ 43.6 °F 44 19 11.0°F 24 28 27.0 °F 30 13 32.0°F 12 34 48.8 °F 40 21   22 52   51
11-10-18 8 23.9°F 11 33 ↓ 32.8 °F 37 23 25.0°F 23 40 43.6 °F 37 19 11.0°F 23 28 27.0 °F 32 14 32.0°F 14 32 48.8 °F 40
11-09-18 23 11.9°F 25 27 ↓ 30.9 °F 29 12 23.9°F 11 34 32.8 °F 33 24 25.0°F 20 42 43.6 °F 36 24 11.0°F 20 34 27.0 °F 31
11-08-18 27 30.1°F 24 33 32.0 °F 34 23 11.9°F 22 31 30.9 °F 32 14 23.9°F 16 34 32.8 °F 35 24 25.0°F 25 42 43.6 °F 38
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 0 3 0 1 1 1 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 50.0   50.0 20.0   20.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   0.0 75.0   0.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 10.2   11.5 3.9   3.4 10.6   11.6 3.9   4.1 9.5   11.2 4.7   5.9 10.7   9.0 8.5   6.1
Net Error -3.5   -2.8 -3.5   0.2 -3.0   -2.4 -3.0   -2.4 -5.5   -5.2 -3.6   -2.3 -2.0   -3.0 -3.8   -3.5
Std Dev 7.5   7.5 4.4   2.7 8.9   9.3 5.2   3.8 9.5   10.7 6.5   5.3 10.7   9.0 8.5   6.1

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 11-15-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-15-18 25 ↑   61 57 ↓   31 27   60 54   37 28   38 28   23 17   45 36   25
11-14-18 19 ↑ 48.8 °F 53 47 ↓ 30.8°F 27 24   58 54   27 28   60 54   39 28   41 31   22
11-13-18 11 41.9 °F 42 38 ↓ 26.2°F 20 20 48.8 °F 48 46 30.8°F 25 24   54 55   27 29   61 54   38
11-12-18 20 ↑ 27.0 °F 30 27 ↓ 10.3°F 11 12 41.9 °F 38 37 26.2°F 20 20 48.8 °F 49 48 30.8°F 23 26   55 51   29
11-11-18 23 43.6 °F 44 37 ↓ 24.4°F 31 19 ↑ 27.0 °F 36 27 10.3°F 14 13 41.9 °F 42 34 26.2°F 24 20 48.8 °F 54 50 30.8°F 27
11-10-18 8 ↑ 32.8 °F 39 34 ↓ 23.9°F 24 25 43.6 °F 36 38 24.4°F 23 16 27.0 °F 31 28 10.3°F 13 12 41.9 °F 40 33 26.2°F 23
11-09-18 23 ↑ 30.9 °F 31 27 ↓ 11.9°F 12 9 32.8 °F 37 34 23.9°F 22 24 43.6 °F 38 40 24.4°F 25 21 27.0 °F 34 31 10.3°F 16
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0
% Succ     50.0     50.0     20.0     40.0     50.0     25.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 20.2   2.3 13.8   2.9 21.8   5.1 13.3   3.8 22.1   2.5 14.6   3.3 21.6   4.7 15.6   4.2
Net Error -20.2   2.3 13.8   -0.4 -21.8   0.2 13.3   -2.3 -22.1   -0.3 14.6   -1.7 -21.6   3.4 15.6   -0.4
Std Dev 11.6   2.3 6.1   2.8 15.9   4.2 8.7   2.8 19.4   2.4 12.7   3.6 21.6   4.7 15.6   4.2

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 11-15-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-15-18 57 ↓   58 27   30 54 ↓   59 28   37 28   38 17   22 36   45 22   25
11-14-18 48 ↓ 48.8 °F 54 24 28.7°F 32 54 ↓   63 28   31 54   63 28   41 31   43 18   22
11-13-18 38 ↓ 41.9 °F 39 20 25.9°F 19 46 ↓ 48.8 °F 47 24 28.7°F 25 55   54 29   27 54   61 26   38
11-12-18 27 ↓ 27.0 °F 28 12 10.2°F 11 37 ↓ 41.9 °F 38 20 25.9°F 20 48 48.8 °F 49 26 28.7°F 22 51   56 30   29
11-11-18 37 ↓ 43.6 °F 42 19 ↑ 23.4°F 31 28 ↓ 27.0 °F 36 12 10.2°F 17 34 41.9 °F 42 20 25.9°F 25 50 48.8 °F 55 30 28.7°F 28
11-10-18 34 ↓ 32.8 °F 37 25 23.9°F 23 38 ↓ 43.6 °F 36 16 23.4°F 23 28 27.0 °F 31 12 10.2°F 13 33 41.9 °F 40 20 25.9°F 23
11-09-18 28 ↓ 30.9 °F 29 9 11.9°F 10 34 ↓ 32.8 °F 35 24 23.9°F 22 40 43.6 °F 38 21 23.4°F 25 31 27.0 °F 34 16 10.2°F 16
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
% Succ 50.0   50.0 33.3   50.0 40.0   20.0 40.0   40.0 50.0   50.0 25.0   50.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 2.6   2.8 3.5   3.6 3.1   4.9 4.0   3.7 3.3   2.5 3.2   3.0 4.7   5.0 4.3   3.1
Net Error -2.2   0.7 -2.5   0.3 -2.2   -0.4 -3.2   -1.0 -2.8   -0.3 -2.3   -0.8 -1.2   3.8 0.4   0.7
Std Dev 2.5   1.8 2.2   3.0 2.3   3.9 2.9   2.9 3.1   2.4 2.8   3.2 4.7   5.0 4.3   3.1

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 11-15-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-15-18 57 ↓   52 27   25 54 ↓   52 28   33 28   35 17   21 36   43 22   22
11-14-18 48 ↓ 48.8 °F 50 24 28.7°F 30 54 ↓   59 28   30 54   60 28   39 31   41 18   23
11-13-18 38 ↓ 41.9 °F 36 20 25.9°F 19 46 ↓ 48.8 °F 47 24 28.7°F 24 55   55 29   27 54   59 26   39
11-12-18 27 ↓ 27.0 °F 25 12 10.2°F 8 37 ↓ 41.9 °F 38 20 25.9°F 21 48 48.8 °F 49 26 28.7°F 23 51   56 30   28
11-11-18 38 ↓ 43.6 °F 44 19 ↑ 23.4°F 26 28 ↓ 27.0 °F 31 12 10.2°F 14 34 41.9 °F 39 20 25.9°F 21 50 48.8 °F 50 30 28.7°F 24
11-10-18 34 ↓ 32.8 °F 32 25 23.9°F 18 38 ↓ 43.6 °F 34 16 23.4°F 23 28 27.0 °F 32 12 10.2°F 10 33 41.9 °F 39 20 25.9°F 22
11-09-18 28 ↓ 30.9 °F 25 9 11.9°F 7 34 ↓ 32.8 °F 31 24 23.9°F 18 40 43.6 °F 33 21 23.4°F 20 31 27.0 °F 30 16 10.2°F 15
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 4 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
% Succ 50.0   66.7 33.3   16.7 40.0   40.0 40.0   20.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 2.4   2.7 3.5   4.0 3.1   4.2 4.0   3.9 3.3   4.7 3.2   3.6 4.7   2.4 4.3   4.5
Net Error -2.0   -2.2 -2.5   -2.7 -2.2   -2.6 -3.2   -2.4 -2.8   -2.1 -2.3   -3.6 -1.2   0.4 0.4   -1.3
Std Dev 2.2   2.2 2.2   2.6 2.3   2.9 2.9   2.6 3.1   4.6 2.8   3.3 4.7   2.4 4.3   4.5

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 11-14-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-14-18 48 ↓   49 24   30 54 ↓   57 28   30 54   60 28   39 31   40 18   23
11-13-18 38 ↓ 41.9 °F 41 20 25.9°F 19 46 ↓   46 24   24 55   52 29   27 54   60 26   40
11-12-18 27 ↓ 27.0 °F 27 11 10.2°F 8 37 ↓ 41.9 °F 37 20 25.9°F 19 48   48 26   23 51   56 30   24
11-11-18 39 ↓ 43.6 °F 44 21 23.4°F 22 28 ↓ 27.0 °F 28 12 10.2°F 12 34 41.9 °F 39 20 25.9°F 22 50   50 30   25
11-10-18 33 32.8 °F 33 25 23.9°F 21 38 ↓ 43.6 °F 35 16 23.4°F 23 28 27.0 °F 32 12 10.2°F 10 33 41.9 °F 39 20 25.9°F 22
11-09-18 29 ↓ 30.9 °F 26 9 11.9°F 7 34 ↓ 32.8 °F 31 24 23.9°F 18 40 43.6 °F 33 21 23.4°F 20 31 27.0 °F 30 16 10.2°F 15
11-08-18 32 32.0 °F 33 22 27.1°F 20 28 ↓ 30.9 °F 28 12 11.9°F 13 34 32.8 °F 33 24 23.9°F 21 42 43.6 °F 39 24 23.4°F 18
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 5 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 0
% Succ 66.7   83.3 33.3   16.7 40.0   40.0 60.0   60.0 50.0   25.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 1.8   1.2 3.0   4.2 3.1   3.8 3.1   3.2 3.4   4.7 2.6   2.6 4.8   3.5 4.1   4.7
Net Error -1.7   -0.7 -2.4   -4.2 -2.2   -3.4 -2.3   -2.1 -2.3   -2.1 -1.6   -2.6 -2.2   -1.5 0.2   -1.5
Std Dev 1.9   1.7 2.1   2.6 2.6   3.5 3.1   3.0 3.7   4.1 2.8   2.3 4.8   3.5 4.1   4.7

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 11-14-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-14-18 48 ↓   30 25   58 54 ↓   30 28   58 54   38 27   40 29   23 18   44
11-13-18 40 ↓ 25.9°F 41 18 41.9 °F 24 45 ↓   51 24   30 53   61 28   29 54   61 27   39
11-12-18 27 ↓ 27.0 °F 27 11 10.2°F 8 37 ↓ 25.9°F 37 20 41.9 °F 19 47   48 24   23 52   56 29   24
11-11-18 41 ↓ 43.6 °F 22 20 23.4°F 29 27 ↓ 27.0 °F 12 12 10.2°F 40 35 25.9°F 22 20 41.9 °F 51 47   25 26   57
11-10-18 33 ↓ 23.9°F 24 24 32.8 °F 37 37 ↓ 43.6 °F 23 19 23.4°F 32 28 27.0 °F 15 13 10.2°F 42 34 25.9°F 27 21 41.9 °F 59
11-09-18 29 ↓ 11.9°F 9 8 30.9 °F 34 33 ↓ 23.9°F 22 23 32.8 °F 36 40 43.6 °F 18 19 23.4°F 28 28 27.0 °F 12 14 10.2°F 41
11-08-18 32 27.1°F 20 22 32.0 °F 28 28 ↓ 11.9°F 12 12 30.9 °F 35 34 23.9°F 21 24 32.8 °F 40 42 43.6 °F 19 24 23.4°F 35
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   0.0 20.0   40.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0 66.7   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 8.0   7.8 11.6   6.2 8.6   9.7 11.4   13.7 6.0   11.1 9.5   13.2 3.6   13.6 8.4   19.8
Net Error 7.1   -2.7 -11.4   -1.9 5.9   -5.3 -10.6   4.6 4.2   -11.1 -8.1   13.2 2.5   -12.8 -5.5   19.8
Std Dev 6.8   8.6 10.0   5.8 6.8   8.2 10.1   12.2 5.4   10.3 10.3   11.6 3.6   13.6 8.4   19.8

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 11-14-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-14-18 25   31 54 ↓   61 28   31 54   59 27   37 29   40 18   23 35   44
11-13-18 18 25.9°F 22 45 ↓ 41.9 °F 49 24   26 53   56 28   27 54   60 27   41 30   45
11-12-18 11 10.2°F 11 37 ↓ 27.0 °F 39 20 25.9°F 22 47 41.9 °F 49 24   24 52   57 29   26 51   60
11-11-18 20 23.4°F 24 27 ↓ 43.6 °F 30 12 10.2°F 13 35 27.0 °F 41 20 25.9°F 22 47 41.9 °F 51 26   25 50   57
11-10-18 24 23.9°F 25 37 ↓ 32.8 °F 38 19 23.4°F 24 28 43.6 °F 33 13 10.2°F 15 34 27.0 °F 42 21 25.9°F 27 52 41.9 °F 60
11-09-18 8 11.9°F 11 33 ↓ 30.9 °F 36 23 23.9°F 24 40 32.8 °F 37 19 23.4°F 19 28 43.6 °F 29 14 10.2°F 13 32 27.0 °F 42
11-08-18 23 27.1°F 22 28 ↓ 32.0 °F 28 12 11.9°F 12 34 30.9 °F 35 24 23.9°F 22 42 32.8 °F 40 24 23.4°F 19 34 43.6 °F 35
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 0 0 3 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ 33.3   66.7     0.0 60.0   60.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 3.4   2.1 6.7   7.8 2.6   1.5 7.8   8.0 3.3   3.8 9.2   11.5 3.1   2.8 8.2   13.9
Net Error -3.1   -1.2 -0.2   2.0 -1.9   -0.1 1.6   3.8 -1.9   -1.4 1.4   4.2 -0.2   -0.2 1.8   8.2
Std Dev 2.9   1.5 5.7   4.6 2.4   1.6 6.2   5.9 3.1   3.2 8.3   10.0 3.1   2.8 8.2   13.9

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 11-14-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-14-18 25   29 54 ↓   58 28   31 54   59 27   36 29   37 18   22 35   45
11-13-18 18 33.2°F 24 45 ↓ 41.9 °F 53 24   25 53   54 28   29 54   59 27   38 30   42
11-12-18 11 28.6°F 11 37 ↓ 27.0 °F 40 20 33.2°F 19 47 41.9 °F 47 24   24 52   53 29   26 51   60
11-11-18 20 14.3°F 26 27 ↓ 43.6 °F 31 12 28.6°F 13 35 27.0 °F 39 20 33.2°F 20 47 41.9 °F 49 26   23 50   58
11-10-18 24 27.2°F 24 37 ↓ 32.8 °F 44 19 14.3°F 23 28 43.6 °F 30 13 28.6°F 12 34 27.0 °F 40 21 33.2°F 22 52 41.9 °F 51
11-09-18 8 25.3°F 11 33 ↓ 30.9 °F 38 23 27.2°F 24 40 32.8 °F 37 19 14.3°F 23 28 43.6 °F 32 14 28.6°F 15 32 27.0 °F 40
11-08-18 23 13.0°F 22 27 ↓ 32.0 °F 29 12 25.3°F 11 34 30.9 °F 33 24 27.2°F 20 42 32.8 °F 36 24 14.3°F 20 34 43.6 °F 31
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 11.5   10.8 6.8   9.7 10.4   11.2 7.8   7.4 9.2   11.4 9.2   8.7 12.2   10.2 8.2   11.6
Net Error -6.3   -3.9 -0.4   4.5 -8.5   -7.7 1.6   2.0 -6.8   -7.1 1.4   2.9 -5.7   -6.4 1.8   3.2
Std Dev 7.3   6.3 5.7   4.5 7.7   7.6 6.2   5.9 8.2   9.9 8.3   7.6 12.2   10.2 8.2   11.6

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.