Current WXSIM Forecast

Friday, 18-Aug-2017 02:00 am

Rest of
tonight
Fog
Fog
Low: 65°
Friday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 82°
Friday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 65°
Saturday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 89°
Saturday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 71°
Sunday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 94°
Sunday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 80°
Monday

Partly Cloudy
Hot!
Partly Cloudy
Hot!
High: 97°
Monday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 72°

Current NWS Forecast

Fri, 18-Aug-2017 2:59am CDT

Overnight

Overnight: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 62 °F ↑
Friday

Friday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 87 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Clear
Clear

Lo 59 °F ↑
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 89 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 67 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 91 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 71 °F
Monday

Monday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 90 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 70 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-18-17 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-17 62 ↑   65 87   82 59 ↑   65 89   89 67   71 91   94 71   80 90   97
08-17-17 61 66.0°F 62 85 89.1 °F 83 61   64 87   85 61   64 88   90 67   73 90   92
08-16-17 70 65.8°F 68 82 84.5 °F 82 64 66.0°F 66 84 89.1 °F 78 61   62 85   82 62   65 85   86
08-15-17 68 68.6°F 68 89 88.5 °F 85 70 65.8°F 71 81 84.5 °F 77 64 66.0°F 66 85 89.1 °F 79 62   64 86   85
08-14-17 67 72.2°F 69 87 90.2 °F 86 69 ↑ 68.6°F 71 87 88.5 °F 85 70 65.8°F 72 84 84.5 °F 87 63 66.0°F 67 85 89.1 °F 81
08-13-17 62 72.1°F 63 84 84.5 °F 81 66 72.2°F 65 86 90.2 °F 78 68 68.6°F 70 87 88.5 °F 86 69 65.8°F 72 85 84.5 °F 87
08-12-17 59 69.3°F 61 82 82.8 °F 83 63 72.1°F 63 79 84.5 °F 85 63 72.2°F 65 80 90.2 °F 88 64 68.6°F 70 83 88.5 °F 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 2 1 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 50.0   16.7 40.0   20.0 20.0   20.0 50.0   50.0 50.0   0.0     66.7 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 5.9   4.6 1.9   3.3 4.4   4.8 4.0   7.0 4.0   3.7 4.1   4.3 3.6   2.9 3.4   5.0
Net Error -4.5   -3.8 -1.8   -3.3 -2.5   -1.7 -4.0   -6.8 -1.9   0.1 -4.1   -3.1 -1.5   2.9 -3.0   -3.4
Std Dev 3.8   3.3 1.6   1.8 3.5   3.9 2.8   5.0 3.6   3.7 3.5   4.7 3.6   2.9 3.4   5.0

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 61   83 86   64 63   86 87   64 60   90 89   73 68   92 90   72
08-16-17 69 ↑ 84.5 °F 84 82 ↓ 63.4°F 67 63   78 83   62 61   82 87   65 61   86 86   69
08-15-17 68 88.5 °F 84 88 68.6°F 71 72 84.5 °F 77 81 63.4°F 66 64   79 84   64 62   85 85   68
08-14-17 67 90.2 °F 88 87 71.0°F 70 69 ↑ 88.5 °F 85 87 68.6°F 72 70 84.5 °F 87 84 63.4°F 67 63   81 85   67
08-13-17 62 84.5 °F 85 83 69.7°F 65 66 90.2 °F 89 87 71.0°F 69 68 88.5 °F 82 88 68.6°F 72 70 84.5 °F 87 85 63.4°F 67
08-12-17 59 82.8 °F 84 81 67.2°F 63 62 84.5 °F 85 80 69.7°F 65 64 90.2 °F 88 83 71.0°F 70 66 88.5 °F 84 85 68.6°F 72
08-11-17 59 ↑ 82.3 °F 83 81 61.5°F 60 59 82.8 °F 83 79 67.2°F 63 62 84.5 °F 84 78 69.7°F 66 62 90.2 °F 81 81 71.0°F 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 4 0 2 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ     66.7     33.3     60.0     20.0     25.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 21.5   1.6 16.8   2.9 20.5   2.6 14.8   3.4 20.9   2.9 15.1   2.9 21.7   5.4 16.0   3.7
Net Error -21.5   -0.8 16.8   -0.9 -20.5   -2.3 14.8   -1.0 -20.9   -1.7 15.1   0.6 -21.7   -3.7 16.0   1.0
Std Dev 9.2   1.5 7.2   1.7 13.6   2.8 9.6   2.3 18.4   2.5 13.3   2.6 21.7   5.4 16.0   3.7

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 86   80 63   64 87   85 60   64 89   90 68   69 90   88 70   74
08-16-17 82 ↓ 84.5 °F 78 63 62.1°F 65 83   74 61   63 87   82 61   63 86   80 66   65
08-15-17 88 88.5 °F 82 72 68.6°F 69 81 84.5 °F 79 64 62.1°F 66 84   79 62   64 85   85 63   70
08-14-17 87 90.2 °F 88 69 ↑ 70.1°F 70 87 88.5 °F 86 70 68.6°F 72 84 84.5 °F 82 63 62.1°F 66 85   80 64   66
08-13-17 83 84.5 °F 83 66 67.2°F 65 87 90.2 °F 89 68 70.1°F 71 88 88.5 °F 86 70 68.6°F 74 85 84.5 °F 91 64 62.1°F 69
08-12-17 81 82.8 °F 83 62 66.5°F 63 80 84.5 °F 82 64 67.2°F 65 83 90.2 °F 85 66 70.1°F 68 85 88.5 °F 86 68 68.6°F 73
08-11-17 81 82.3 °F 80 59 61.4°F 60 79 82.8 °F 82 62 66.5°F 62 78 84.5 °F 84 62 67.2°F 66 81 90.2 °F 80 64 70.1°F 64
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 2 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 0
% Succ 66.7   33.3 50.0   50.0 20.0   40.0 40.0   20.0 50.0   25.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 1.8   3.2 2.3   1.8 3.3   2.5 2.6   3.0 3.7   2.7 2.9   3.2 4.4   6.4 2.9   5.8
Net Error -1.8   -3.1 -0.8   -0.6 -3.3   -2.5 -1.3   0.3 -3.7   -2.7 -1.8   1.5 -4.1   -2.1 -1.6   1.7
Std Dev 1.1   2.7 1.6   1.4 2.2   2.2 1.8   2.1 3.6   2.3 2.7   2.8 4.4   6.4 2.9   5.8

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 86   83 63   66 87   85 60   65 89   89 68   70 90   86 70   73
08-16-17 82 ↓ 84.5 °F 75 63 62.1°F 60 83   73 61   61 87   81 61   62 86   79 66   64
08-15-17 88 88.5 °F 86 72 68.6°F 69 81 84.5 °F 80 64 62.1°F 67 84   80 62   64 85   86 63   70
08-14-17 86 90.2 °F 90 69 ↑ 70.2°F 72 87 88.5 °F 87 70 68.6°F 72 84 84.5 °F 81 63 62.1°F 65 85   80 64   65
08-13-17 83 84.5 °F 83 66 67.2°F 66 87 90.2 °F 87 68 70.2°F 71 88 88.5 °F 87 70 68.6°F 76 85 84.5 °F 92 64 62.1°F 69
08-12-17 81 82.8 °F 84 62 66.5°F 64 80 84.5 °F 84 64 67.2°F 66 83 90.2 °F 86 66 70.2°F 68 85 88.5 °F 86 68 68.6°F 73
08-11-17 81 82.3 °F 82 59 61.4°F 60 79 82.8 °F 81 62 66.5°F 61 78 84.5 °F 83 62 67.2°F 67 81 90.2 °F 80 64 70.2°F 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 3 4 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 2 0
% Succ 66.7   66.7 50.0   66.7 20.0   60.0 40.0   40.0 50.0   50.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 2.0   2.5 2.3   1.6 3.3   2.3 2.6   3.2 3.7   2.7 2.9   3.2 4.4   6.7 2.9   6.2
Net Error -2.0   -2.1 -0.8   -0.8 -3.3   -2.3 -1.3   0.5 -3.7   -2.7 -1.8   2.0 -4.1   -1.7 -1.6   1.4
Std Dev 1.4   3.2 1.6   0.9 2.2   1.8 1.8   2.4 3.6   2.4 2.7   2.8 4.4   6.7 2.9   6.2

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 86   86 63   67 87   86 60   64 89   89 68   69 90   89 70   73
08-16-17 79 84.5 °F 84 63 62.1°F 65 83   76 61   64 87   81 61   64 86   82 66   69
08-15-17 88 88.5 °F 85 72 68.6°F 70 81 84.5 °F 80 64 62.1°F 66 84   80 62   64 85   87 63   66
08-14-17 86 ↓ 90.2 °F 91 69 ↑ 70.2°F 71 87 88.5 °F 80 70 68.6°F 71 84 84.5 °F 77 63 62.1°F 68 85   81 64   66
08-13-17 83 84.5 °F 83 66 67.2°F 66 87 90.2 °F 85 68 70.2°F 71 88 88.5 °F 83 70 68.6°F 73 85 84.5 °F 88 64 62.1°F 68
08-12-17 81 82.8 °F 83 62 66.5°F 63 80 84.5 °F 85 64 67.2°F 65 83 90.2 °F 90 66 70.2°F 71 85 88.5 °F 90 68 68.6°F 78
08-11-17 81 82.3 °F 82 59 61.4°F 61 79 82.8 °F 82 62 66.5°F 62 78 84.5 °F 83 62 67.2°F 67 81 90.2 °F 73 64 70.2°F 64
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 0
% Succ 66.7   83.3 50.0   66.7 20.0   40.0 40.0   20.0 50.0   50.0 50.0   50.0 33.3   33.3 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 2.5   1.1 2.3   1.7 3.3   3.9 2.6   2.8 3.7   3.7 2.9   2.8 4.4   7.4 2.9   7.2
Net Error -2.5   -0.8 -0.8   0.0 -3.3   -3.7 -1.3   0.1 -3.7   -3.7 -1.8   2.7 -4.1   -4.1 -1.6   3.0
Std Dev 2.0   1.2 1.6   1.2 2.2   3.3 1.8   2.0 3.6   3.7 2.7   2.9 4.4   7.4 2.9   7.2

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 86 ↓   68 62   87 87   65 59   89 89   69 67   89 91   73 71   95
08-16-17 79 62.1°F 64 62 84.5 °F 76 85   62 61   80 87   64 61   81 88   69 67   87
08-15-17 88 ↓ 68.6°F 72 70 88.5 °F 77 82 62.1°F 67 64 84.5 °F 80 84   65 61   87 85   66 62   86
08-14-17 86 70.2°F 70 68 90.2 °F 81 89 68.6°F 72 70 88.5 °F 78 82 62.1°F 68 63 84.5 °F 82 84   66 62   85
08-13-17 83 67.2°F 66 67 84.5 °F 82 87 70.2°F 71 69 90.2 °F 83 87 68.6°F 72 70 88.5 °F 87 84 62.1°F 68 63 84.5 °F 83
08-12-17 81 66.5°F 63 62 82.8 °F 85 84 67.2°F 66 66 84.5 °F 90 86 70.2°F 71 68 90.2 °F 87 87 68.6°F 76 69 88.5 °F 93
08-11-17 81 61.4°F 62 59 82.3 °F 84 82 66.5°F 64 63 82.8 °F 83 79 67.2°F 66 63 84.5 °F 73 80 70.2°F 63 64 90.2 °F 83
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 4 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ     66.7     16.7     40.0     20.0     50.0     25.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 17.0   1.8 20.8   5.9 17.9   2.6 19.7   5.6 16.5   2.8 20.9   4.7 16.7   6.8 22.4   4.4
Net Error 17.0   0.2 -20.8   -4.6 17.9   1.1 -19.7   -3.3 16.5   2.2 -20.9   -4.7 16.7   2.0 -22.4   -1.4
Std Dev 7.1   1.4 8.7   4.3 11.4   2.1 12.5   4.2 14.4   2.9 18.1   4.2 16.7   6.8 22.4   4.4

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 62 ↑   68 87   88 59 ↑   66 89   90 67   73 91   95 71   78 90   95
08-16-17 61 62.1°F 65 85 84.5 °F 83 61   63 87   86 61   64 88   92 67   72 90   89
08-15-17 70 68.6°F 70 82 88.5 °F 77 64 62.1°F 66 84 84.5 °F 79 61   63 85   86 62   66 85   86
08-14-17 68 70.2°F 71 89 90.2 °F 86 70 68.6°F 72 82 88.5 °F 78 63 62.1°F 69 84 84.5 °F 80 62   66 85   86
08-13-17 67 67.2°F 69 87 84.5 °F 77 69 ↑ 70.2°F 71 87 90.2 °F 85 70 68.6°F 74 84 88.5 °F 86 63 62.1°F 67 85 84.5 °F 82
08-12-17 62 66.5°F 64 84 82.8 °F 85 66 67.2°F 67 86 84.5 °F 88 68 70.2°F 70 87 90.2 °F 85 69 68.6°F 73 85 88.5 °F 92
08-11-17 59 61.4°F 63 82 82.3 °F 83 63 66.5°F 63 79 82.8 °F 82 63 67.2°F 63 80 84.5 °F 76 64 70.2°F 65 83 90.2 °F 78
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 4 4 2 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 0
% Succ 50.0   66.7 66.7   33.3 80.0   40.0 40.0   20.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   0.0 66.7   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 2.0   1.8 2.0   4.6 1.8   2.4 3.1   5.1 2.2   4.2 3.2   5.2 2.5   4.8 3.7   6.1
Net Error -1.5   1.0 -0.6   -3.6 -0.5   0.9 -2.5   -3.7 -1.0   2.0 -3.2   -5.2 -1.6   1.4 -3.4   -3.7
Std Dev 1.6   1.0 2.2   3.9 1.2   1.8 2.7   4.0 2.0   3.9 3.1   4.5 2.5   4.8 3.7   6.1

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 08-17-17 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-17-17 62 ↑   65 87   84 59 ↑   65 89   89 67   73 91   94 71   78 90   95
08-16-17 61 68.5°F 63 85 84.5 °F 82 61   63 87   87 61   65 88   91 67   72 90   89
08-15-17 70 68.8°F 68 82 88.5 °F 79 64 68.5°F 66 84 84.5 °F 78 61   63 85   86 62   66 85   86
08-14-17 68 71.0°F 70 89 90.2 °F 86 70 68.8°F 71 82 88.5 °F 77 63 68.5°F 67 84 84.5 °F 80 62   65 85   86
08-13-17 67 74.9°F 68 87 84.5 °F 79 69 ↑ 71.0°F 71 87 90.2 °F 85 70 68.8°F 73 84 88.5 °F 86 63 68.5°F 67 85 84.5 °F 82
08-12-17 62 72.7°F 64 84 82.8 °F 85 66 74.9°F 67 86 84.5 °F 88 68 71.0°F 70 87 90.2 °F 85 69 68.8°F 73 85 88.5 °F 92
08-11-17 59 70.8°F 59 82 82.3 °F 81 63 72.7°F 62 79 82.8 °F 84 63 74.9°F 66 80 84.5 °F 79 64 71.0°F 67 83 90.2 °F 78
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 4 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 66.7   16.7 40.0   20.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   50.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 7.0   5.8 2.0   4.2 5.3   4.7 3.1   5.6 5.4   3.9 3.2   4.4 4.2   3.2 3.7   6.1
Net Error -6.6   -5.8 -0.6   -3.5 -4.8   -3.8 -2.5   -3.7 -4.8   -1.8 -3.2   -4.4 -4.1   -0.4 -3.4   -3.7
Std Dev 4.4   3.9 2.2   3.0 4.1   3.9 2.7   4.4 4.7   3.6 3.1   3.8 4.2   3.2 3.7   6.1

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.