Current WXSIM Forecast

Friday, 18-Sep-2020 11:00 am

This
afternoon
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
High: 73°
Tonight

Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 50°
Saturday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 76°
Saturday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 55°
Sunday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 77°
Sunday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 56°
Monday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 81°
Monday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 58°
Tuesday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 84°

Current NWS Forecast

Fri, 18-Sep-2020 11:44am CDT

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Partly Sunny
Partly Sunny

Hi 71 °F
Tonight

Tonight: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 54 °F ↑
Saturday

Saturday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 79 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 58 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 82 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 58 °F
Monday

Monday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 84 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Clear
Clear

Lo 59 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 84 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-20 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-20 51   52 72   74 54 ↑   51 78   76 57   55 82   78 57   56 83   82
09-17-20 50 ↑ 54.4°F 52 75 73.9 °F 79 51   53 75   76 54   54 81   77 57   54 83   78
09-16-20 58 ↑ 57.1°F 61 84 ↓ 80.4 °F 81 51 54.4°F 55 75 73.9 °F 78 52   53 76   77 54   53 79   77
09-15-20 56 ↑ 63.9°F 61 84 81.6 °F 82 58 ↑ 57.1°F 61 86 80.4 °F 81 54 54.4°F 53 78 73.9 °F 75 53   51 73   72
09-14-20   59 <85 80.8 °F 82 55 63.9°F 58 <85 81.6 °F 80 >55 57.1°F 60 85 80.4 °F 83 55 54.4°F 55 >75 73.9 °F 77
09-13-20 50 61.9°F 49 80 85.8 °F 78 <55 62.8°F 53 80 80.8 °F 81 55 63.9°F 55 <85 81.6 °F 80 >55 57.1°F 60 85 80.4 °F 82
09-12-20 53 52.1°F 51 73 76.8 °F 72 51 61.9°F 50 80 85.8 °F 78 54 62.8°F 53 81 80.8 °F 80 57 63.9°F 57 83 81.6 °F 83
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2
% Succ 40.0   20.0 16.7   50.0 20.0   20.0 40.0   60.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   75.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 5.2   4.6 16.3   3.3 17.4   6.4 19.0   2.9 18.8   5.8 22.6   1.5 21.5   3.5 26.6   2.0
Net Error -4.5   -3.1 -13.9   -0.9 -17.0   -4.6 -16.3   -0.9 -18.8   -4.3 -18.2   0.3 -21.1   -1.1 -22.6   2.0
Std Dev 4.0   3.2 29.2   3.0 15.1   5.0 32.1   2.2 18.7   5.4 21.7   1.3 21.5   3.5 26.6   2.0

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-20 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-20 51   73 71   49 54 ↑   75 79   55 58   78 82   56 58   82 84   57
09-17-20   77 75 73.9 °F 52 <55   76 <75   54 <55   76 >75   54 55   79 80   55
09-16-20 58 52.2°F 82 82 80.4 °F 55 51 ↑ 53.2°F 79 75 73.9 °F 53 53   77 75   53 55   77 81   53
09-15-20 55 62.2°F 80 84 81.6 °F 59 58 52.2°F 81 85 80.4 °F 53 52 53.2°F 75 77 73.9 °F 51 53   73 78   51
09-14-20 52 59.3°F 82 82 80.8 °F 57 56 ↑ 62.2°F 80 84 81.6 °F 61 58 52.2°F 85 86 80.4 °F 55 57 53.2°F 77 79 73.9 °F 55
09-13-20 48 ↑ 57.2°F 78 80 85.8 °F 53 53 ↑ 59.3°F 81 81 80.8 °F 55 56 62.2°F 80 84 81.6 °F 60 57 52.2°F 82 85 80.4 °F 54
09-12-20 53 ↑ 49.7°F 72 72 ↓ 76.8 °F 50 49 ↑ 57.2°F 77 80 85.8 °F 53 54 59.3°F 79 81 80.8 °F 57 57 62.2°F 82 83 81.6 °F 62
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
% Succ     0.0 50.0   0.0     0.0 40.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 6.6   22.7 2.8   25.6 5.7   22.8 2.8   25.5 4.6   23.0 2.8   23.4 4.6   24.5 3.7   21.6
Net Error -2.9   22.7 -0.7   -25.6 -3.4   22.8 0.5   -25.5 -1.7   23.0 2.8   -23.4 1.1   24.5 3.7   -21.6
Std Dev 4.2   14.9 2.0   11.0 4.0   14.9 2.1   16.4 4.4   19.9 2.5   20.3 4.6   24.5 3.7   21.6

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-20 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-20 <75   73 <55   49 >75   75 >55   55 <85   78 >55   56 <85   81 >55   57
09-17-20 75 73.9 °F 76 <55 49.7°F 52 <75   75 <55   53 >75   75 55   54 80   77 55   58
09-16-20 <85 80.4 °F 79 50 50.2°F 54 75 73.9 °F 78 <55 49.7°F 52 75   75 55   53 80   76 >55   53
09-15-20 84 81.6 °F 79 58 59.7°F 59 85 80.4 °F 80 52 50.2°F 53 77 73.9 °F 75 53 49.7°F 51 78   73 55   52
09-14-20 82 80.8 °F 81 56 ↑ 57.7°F 58 84 81.6 °F 81 58 59.7°F 62 86 80.4 °F 83 57 50.2°F 53 79 73.9 °F 75 54 49.7°F 51
09-13-20 80 85.8 °F 77 <55 56.5°F 53 80 80.8 °F 80 55 57.7°F 55 <85 81.6 °F 80 >55 59.7°F 59 85 80.4 °F 81 55 50.2°F 53
09-12-20 72 ↓ 76.8 °F 72 49 ↑ 48.0°F 52 80 ↓ 85.8 °F 78 54 56.5°F 55 81 80.8 °F 80 57 57.7°F 58 83 81.6 °F 81 58 59.7°F 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 2
% Succ 33.3   33.3 66.7   33.3 40.0   60.0 40.0   20.0 25.0   75.0 25.0   75.0 33.3   100.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 16.0   3.3 18.5   2.4 2.9   2.7 11.7   2.3 22.6   1.5 17.6   1.3 3.7   0.8 3.6   1.5
Net Error -14.4   -2.6 -18.1   1.0 0.3   -1.1 -11.0   0.6 -18.2   0.3 -12.6   0.9 3.7   0.4 2.5   1.5
Std Dev 29.2   3.1 24.7   1.7 2.2   2.3 19.6   1.5 21.9   1.3 16.9   1.1 3.7   0.8 3.6   1.5

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-20 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-20 71   73 54 ↑   50 79   76 58   55 82   77 58   56 84   81 59   58
09-17-20 75 73.9 °F 76 52 49.7°F 51 74   76 53   54 79   76 56   54 81   79 56   58
09-16-20 <85 80.4 °F 79 50 50.2°F 52 75 73.9 °F 77 <55 49.7°F 52 75   76 55   53 80   76 >55   53
09-15-20 <85 81.6 °F 80 >55 59.7°F 60 85 80.4 °F 80 <55 50.2°F 53 75 73.9 °F 75 <55 49.7°F 51 >75   73 55   52
09-14-20 81 80.8 °F 81 56 ↑ 57.7°F 57 84 81.6 °F 80 58 59.7°F 61 86 80.4 °F 82 57 50.2°F 53 79 73.9 °F 75 54 49.7°F 51
09-13-20 80 85.8 °F 80 <55 56.5°F 56 80 80.8 °F 81 55 57.7°F 58 <85 81.6 °F 80 >55 59.7°F 60 85 80.4 °F 81 55 50.2°F 54
09-12-20 72 ↓ 76.8 °F 73 49 ↑ 48.0°F 52 80 ↓ 85.8 °F 78 54 56.5°F 55 81 80.8 °F 80 57 57.7°F 58 83 81.6 °F 81 58 59.7°F 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 3 5 2 3 1 3 2 4 1 3 1 3 1 2
% Succ 33.3   50.0 50.0   83.3 40.0   60.0 20.0   60.0 50.0   100.0 25.0   75.0 33.3   100.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 29.0   2.5 20.2   1.4 2.9   2.6 21.4   1.6 22.1   1.3 29.2   1.2 3.7   0.8 3.6   1.8
Net Error -28.6   -1.7 -19.1   1.0 0.3   -1.3 -21.4   1.0 -18.7   0.1 -25.8   1.2 3.7   0.4 2.5   1.8
Std Dev 37.4   2.0 26.9   0.9 2.2   2.0 24.2   1.2 21.9   1.1 27.3   1.0 3.7   0.8 3.6   1.8

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-20 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-17-20 75   75 <55   52 <75   74 <55   53 >75   78 55   57 80   78 55   56
09-16-20 <85 80.4 °F 81 50 50.2°F 54 75   78 <55   53 75   76 55   53 80   76 >55   53
09-15-20 84 81.6 °F 80 58 59.7°F 60 85 80.4 °F 82 52 50.2°F 54 77   78 53   53 78   78 55   55
09-14-20 81 80.8 °F 80 56 57.7°F 59 84 81.6 °F 80 58 59.7°F 59 86 80.4 °F 81 57 50.2°F 52 79   76 54   52
09-13-20 80 85.8 °F 82 <55 56.5°F 58 80 80.8 °F 83 55 57.7°F 60 <85 81.6 °F 81 >55 59.7°F 62 85 80.4 °F 84 55 50.2°F 55
09-12-20 72 ↓ 76.8 °F 76 49 ↑ 48.0°F 51 80 ↓ 85.8 °F 79 54 56.5°F 55 81 80.8 °F 80 57 57.7°F 57 83 81.6 °F 81 58 59.7°F 59
09-11-20 >55 60.2 °F 63 50 54.3°F 51 <75 76.8 °F 73 50 48.0°F 51 >75 85.8 °F 77 <55 56.5°F 56 >75 80.8 °F 81 55 57.7°F 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 4 4 3 1 2 3 2 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 2
% Succ 16.7   66.7 66.7   50.0 20.0   40.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   75.0 25.0   75.0 33.3   66.7 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 25.6   1.7 10.9   2.2 18.1   3.2 2.1   2.3 43.3   2.7 30.9   1.3 28.9   1.5 3.1   2.1
Net Error -24.8   -0.6 -10.6   1.1 -15.3   -1.7 -0.6   1.4 -40.4   -2.4 -27.5   0.7 -24.9   1.1 0.1   1.1
Std Dev 30.7   1.3 20.7   1.5 16.6   2.3 1.4   1.7 42.0   2.6 29.4   1.2 28.9   1.5 3.1   2.1

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-20 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-17-20 74   52 51 ↑   75 72   53 54   76 78   55 57   77 82   54 57   80
09-16-20   54 50 50.2°F 78 75   54 50   76 75   53 <55   75 80   52 55   79
09-15-20 84 ↓ 81.6 °F 61 58 ↑ 59.7°F 83 84 ↓ 80.4 °F 55 51 50.2°F 78 75   53 52   78 76   55 54   79
09-14-20 81 80.8 °F 59 56 ↑ 57.7°F 80 84 81.6 °F 60 58 59.7°F 81 86 80.4 °F 53 54 50.2°F 76 78   52 53   77
09-13-20   60 <55 56.5°F 84 80 80.8 °F 61 55 57.7°F 81 <85 81.6 °F 62 >55 59.7°F 84 85 80.4 °F 55 >55 50.2°F 79
09-12-20 74 ↓ 76.8 °F 52 50 48.0°F 79 79 85.8 °F 55 54 56.5°F 80 81 80.8 °F 57 56 57.7°F 81 84 81.6 °F 60 58 59.7°F 79
09-11-20 60 60.2 °F 52 53 54.3°F 73 73 76.8 °F 52 51 48.0°F 77 80 85.8 °F 56 54 56.5°F 80 81 80.8 °F 57 57 57.7°F 77
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 5 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0
% Succ 50.0   0.0 83.3   0.0 20.0   0.0 40.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 1.4   18.9 10.6   25.1 3.5   24.5 2.1   25.0 23.3   25.2 16.9   24.2 2.4   23.6 17.5   22.5
Net Error -0.1   -18.9 -9.9   25.1 -1.1   -24.5 -0.6   25.0 -20.4   -25.2 -15.0   24.2 2.4   -23.6 -17.5   22.5
Std Dev 1.3   13.4 20.7   10.7 2.6   15.7 1.5   16.0 22.0   21.8 16.1   21.0 2.4   23.6 17.5   22.5

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-20 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-17-20 49 ↑   51 72   75 54 ↑   53 78   78 57   58 82   80 57   57 83   83
09-16-20 50 ↑ 50.2°F 53 75 80.4 °F 76 51   53 75   76 54   55 81   76 57   54 83   78
09-15-20 58 ↑ 59.7°F 61 84 ↓ 81.6 °F 84 51 50.2°F 54 75 80.4 °F 78 52   53 76   78 54   55 79   79
09-14-20 56 ↑ 57.7°F 60 84 80.8 °F 81 58 ↑ 59.7°F 60 86 81.6 °F 81 54 50.2°F 52 78 80.4 °F 75 53   51 73   73
09-13-20 54 56.5°F 61 80 85.8 °F 85 56 57.7°F 62 84 80.8 °F 82 59 59.7°F 61 86 81.6 °F 83 57 50.2°F 54 76 80.4 °F 76
09-12-20 50 48.0°F 53 >75 76.8 °F 79 <55 56.5°F 56 80 85.8 °F 80 55 57.7°F 58 <85 80.8 °F 82 >55 59.7°F 62 85 81.6 °F 84
09-11-20 <55 54.3°F 48 <75 60.2 °F 72 50 48.0°F 50 >75 76.8 °F 77 <55 56.5°F 53 80 85.8 °F 79 55 57.7°F 57 <85 80.8 °F 82
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 1 0 2 4 3 0 3 1 3 0 2 0 1 0 1
% Succ 66.7   16.7     33.3 80.0   60.0     60.0 25.0   75.0     50.0     33.3     33.3
Ave Error 10.4   3.7 25.6   3.6 12.5   2.2 19.1   2.0 15.9   1.7 23.4   3.7 23.1   2.3 29.5   2.7
Net Error -9.7   1.6 -23.8   1.9 -11.4   2.0 -16.1   -1.5 -14.0   0.0 -21.2   -2.4 -18.5   1.8 -27.3   -0.3
Std Dev 9.1   2.0 29.2   2.5 11.7   2.0 16.7   1.5 15.1   1.5 22.8   3.3 23.1   2.3 29.5   2.7

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-20 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-17-20 >45   50 <75   74 <55   52 >75   78 55   56 <85   78 55   55 <85   81
09-16-20 50 55.5°F 53 75 80.4 °F 78 50   54 75   76 <55   53 80   75 55   53 <85   79
09-15-20 58 ↑ 63.6°F 59 84 ↓ 81.6 °F 82 51 55.5°F 54 75 80.4 °F 78 52   53 76   78 54   55 79   79
09-14-20 56 ↑ 64.3°F 62 84 80.8 °F 82 58 ↑ 63.6°F 62 86 81.6 °F 82 54 55.5°F 54 78 80.4 °F 75 53   51 73   73
09-13-20 <55 67.5°F 60 80 85.8 °F 82 55 64.3°F 59 <85 80.8 °F 81 >55 63.6°F 61 85 81.6 °F 83 >55 55.5°F 54 75 80.4 °F 76
09-12-20 50 67.5°F 49 >75 76.8 °F 78 <55 67.5°F 55 80 85.8 °F 80 55 64.3°F 57 <85 80.8 °F 82 >55 63.6°F 62 85 81.6 °F 83
09-11-20 <55 55.5°F 51 <75 60.2 °F 72 50 67.5°F 50 >75 76.8 °F 78 <55 67.5°F 53 80 85.8 °F 79 55 64.3°F 57 <85 80.8 °F 83
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 3 1 1 0 2 0 2 0 1
% Succ     0.0     50.0     40.0     60.0 25.0   25.0     50.0     66.7     33.3
Ave Error 26.7   6.7 25.6   3.5 20.9   7.7 34.6   2.0 35.5   6.5 23.1   3.7 42.8   3.5 29.9   2.7
Net Error -26.7   -6.7 -23.8   1.4 -20.9   -7.7 -32.9   -1.3 -35.5   -6.5 -21.4   -2.4 -42.8   -3.5 -27.6   -0.3
Std Dev 24.8   6.1 29.2   2.3 17.4   6.3 35.5   1.7 35.1   6.1 22.5   3.3 42.8   3.5 29.9   2.7

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.