Current WXSIM Forecast

Wednesday, 19-Sep-2018 08:00 am

Today

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 92°
Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 74°
Thursday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 92°
Thursday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 67°
Friday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 69°
Friday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 51°
Saturday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 74°
Saturday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 55°
Sunday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 76°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 18-Sep-2018 6:02pm CDT

Overnight

Overnight: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 71 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 92 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 72 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Mostly Sunny then Showers And TStorms Likely

Hi 87 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Showers And TStorms Likely

Lo 58 °F
Friday

Friday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 69 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 49 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 74 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 56 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-19-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-19-18 71   65 92   92 72   77 87   91 58   63 69   71 49   51 74   74
09-18-18 70 67.5°F 70 92 96.2 °F 89 71   71 93   91 71   75 85   88 60   68 72   73
09-17-18 68 78.5°F 68 91 ↓ 95.2 °F 91 69 67.5°F 66 90 96.2 °F 90 71   70 91   91 70   74 82   86
09-16-18 67 74.6°F 68 89 ↓ 90.5 °F 89 67 78.5°F 66 90 95.2 °F 89 68 67.5°F 69 89 96.2 °F 91 69   70 89   92
09-15-18 69 76.0°F 66 91 ↓ 92.8 °F 89 66 74.6°F 65 86 90.5 °F 87 67 78.5°F 66 90 95.2 °F 89 67 67.5°F 67 87 96.2 °F 91
09-14-18 70 74.2°F 65 87 91.6 °F 88 68 76.0°F 65 89 92.8 °F 87 66 74.6°F 65 88 90.5 °F 86 66 78.5°F 65 88 95.2 °F 88
09-13-18 67 71.0°F 65 85 84.6 °F 84 69 74.2°F 65 90 91.6 °F 88 67 76.0°F 67 89 92.8 °F 88 67 74.6°F 67 87 90.5 °F 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ     0.0 50.0   33.3 20.0   20.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 6.0   7.5 2.8   3.5 7.0   8.8 4.3   5.1 7.4   8.2 4.7   5.2 6.9   7.2 6.6   5.3
Net Error -5.1   -6.6 -2.7   -3.5 -6.4   -8.8 -4.3   -5.1 -7.2   -7.4 -4.7   -5.2 -6.9   -7.2 -6.6   -5.3
Std Dev 3.5   4.1 1.7   2.3 5.5   6.6 2.9   3.4 7.3   7.8 4.2   4.5 6.9   7.2 6.6   5.3

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-19-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-19-18 71   92 92   76 72   92 87   63 58   71 69   50 49   74 74   55
09-18-18 70 96.2 °F 93 89 67.4°F 72 71   92 92   75 73   88 85   68 59   73 72   52
09-17-18 68 ↑ 95.2 °F 92 90 75.2°F 66 69 96.2 °F 90 90 67.4°F 69 70   92 92   74 71   87 86   65
09-16-18 67 ↑ 90.5 °F 89 89 71.9°F 66 67 95.2 °F 90 90 75.2°F 68 69 96.2 °F 90 90 67.4°F 69 70   92 90   75
09-15-18 70 ↑ 92.8 °F 91 91 71.1°F 65 67 90.5 °F 87 87 71.9°F 65 67 95.2 °F 89 90 75.2°F 66 67 96.2 °F 91 88 67.4°F 70
09-14-18 69 91.6 °F 90 87 72.7°F 65 69 92.8 °F 88 89 71.1°F 65 67 90.5 °F 87 87 71.9°F 64 66 95.2 °F 89 89 75.2°F 68
09-13-18 67 84.6 °F 84 85 70.3°F 64 71 91.6 °F 88 89 72.7°F 66 68 92.8 °F 88 90 71.1°F 66 67 90.5 °F 86 88 71.9°F 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ     66.7     0.0     0.0     20.0     0.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 23.3   2.0 17.1   6.6 24.7   4.7 17.3   5.7 25.9   5.2 17.9   6.0 27.3   5.3 16.8   4.9
Net Error -23.3   -2.0 17.1   -5.1 -24.7   -4.7 17.3   -5.1 -25.9   -5.2 17.9   -5.2 -27.3   -5.3 16.8   -3.2
Std Dev 9.7   1.1 7.4   3.1 15.7   3.1 11.3   4.1 22.5   4.5 15.6   5.6 27.3   5.3 16.8   4.9

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-19-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-19-18 92   92 72   74 87 ↓   92 58   67 69   69 49   51 74   74 56   55
09-18-18 89 96.2 °F 93 71 67.4°F 72 92   93 73   75 85   91 59   67 72   72 52   52
09-17-18 90 95.2 °F 92 69 73.9°F 69 90 96.2 °F 92 70 67.4°F 69 92   90 71   73 86   90 60   64
09-16-18 89 90.5 °F 89 67 71.3°F 67 90 95.2 °F 90 69 73.9°F 69 90 96.2 °F 91 70 67.4°F 71 90   91 70   75
09-15-18 91 92.8 °F 91 67 69.3°F 68 87 90.5 °F 89 67 71.3°F 67 90 95.2 °F 90 67 73.9°F 69 88 96.2 °F 90 67 67.4°F 70
09-14-18 87 91.6 °F 90 69 71.8°F 66 89 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 67 87 90.5 °F 88 66 71.3°F 67 89 95.2 °F 90 66 73.9°F 68
09-13-18 85 84.6 °F 82 71 70.3°F 65 89 91.6 °F 88 68 71.8°F 67 90 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 67 88 90.5 °F 87 66 71.3°F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
% Succ 50.0   50.0 16.7   16.7     20.0     20.0     0.0     0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 3.5   2.3 3.1   4.4 4.3   3.7 3.6   3.6 4.4   4.2 4.3   3.8 5.6   5.0 4.5   4.6
Net Error -3.3   -2.3 -1.7   -2.8 -4.3   -3.7 -2.5   -2.9 -4.4   -4.2 -3.0   -2.0 -5.6   -5.0 -4.5   -2.9
Std Dev 2.5   1.2 1.6   2.3 2.9   2.6 2.4   2.5 3.9   3.7 3.8   3.3 5.6   5.0 4.5   4.6

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-18 89   93 71   74 92   93 73   76 85   91 59   68 72   72 52   52
09-17-18 91 ↓ 95.2 °F 92 69 73.9°F 72 90   92 70   71 92   90 71   74 86   91 60   65
09-16-18 89 90.5 °F 89 67 71.3°F 67 90 95.2 °F 90 69 73.9°F 70 90   93 70   72 90   92 70   74
09-15-18 91 92.8 °F 91 67 69.3°F 67 87 90.5 °F 88 67 71.3°F 67 90 95.2 °F 90 67 73.9°F 69 88   91 67   70
09-14-18 87 91.6 °F 90 69 71.8°F 69 89 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 68 87 90.5 °F 88 66 71.3°F 67 89 95.2 °F 89 66 73.9°F 69
09-13-18 85 84.6 °F 82 71 70.3°F 65 89 91.6 °F 89 68 71.8°F 67 90 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 67 88 90.5 °F 86 66 71.3°F 66
09-12-18 83 83.2 °F 82 68 67.1°F 66 85 84.6 °F 86 68 70.3°F 68 90 91.6 °F 91 67 71.8°F 68 88 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 68
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ 66.7   66.7 33.3   33.3 20.0   20.0     20.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 2.1   2.0 2.7   3.0 3.1   3.1 3.5   3.3 3.3   3.0 4.8   3.8 4.5   4.8 5.2   3.8
Net Error -2.0   -2.0 -2.1   -3.0 -2.9   -2.5 -3.5   -3.3 -3.3   -3.0 -4.8   -3.8 -4.5   -4.8 -5.2   -3.8
Std Dev 1.8   1.0 1.8   1.7 2.2   2.2 2.4   2.3 3.0   2.8 4.3   3.4 4.5   4.8 5.2   3.8

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-18 90 ↓   97 71   75 92   94 73   75 85   90 59   68 72   72 52   51
09-17-18 91 ↓ 95.2 °F 94 69 73.9°F 74 90   92 70   72 92   91 71   76 86   91 60   67
09-16-18 90 ↓ 90.5 °F 91 67 71.3°F 69 90 95.2 °F 90 69 73.9°F 69 90   88 70   71 90   90 70   77
09-15-18 91 ↓ 92.8 °F 92 67 69.3°F 69 87 90.5 °F 88 67 71.3°F 67 90 95.2 °F 91 67 73.9°F 69 88   92 67   71
09-14-18 87 91.6 °F 91 69 71.8°F 69 89 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 67 87 90.5 °F 88 66 71.3°F 67 89 95.2 °F 90 66 73.9°F 69
09-13-18 85 84.6 °F 83 71 70.3°F 66 89 91.6 °F 89 68 71.8°F 68 90 92.8 °F 89 67 69.3°F 68 88 90.5 °F 87 66 71.3°F 68
09-12-18 83 ↓ 83.2 °F 82 68 67.1°F 66 85 84.6 °F 84 68 70.3°F 68 90 91.6 °F 91 67 71.8°F 69 88 92.8 °F 90 67 69.3°F 68
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 6 2 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ 66.7   100.0 33.3   50.0 20.0   20.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     25.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 2.0   1.0 2.7   1.8 3.1   2.9 3.5   3.5 3.3   2.8 4.8   3.3 4.5   3.8 5.2   3.2
Net Error -1.8   -0.8 -2.1   -1.8 -2.9   -2.9 -3.5   -3.5 -3.3   -2.8 -4.8   -3.3 -4.5   -3.8 -5.2   -3.2
Std Dev 1.8   0.5 1.8   1.6 2.2   2.2 2.4   2.4 3.0   2.5 4.3   3.0 4.5   3.8 5.2   3.2

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-18 93 ↓   70 71   94 92   74 72   90 87   68 58   72 69   50 49   73
09-17-18 92 73.9°F 72 70 95.2 °F 92 92   72 71   91 93   74 71   88 85   66 60   74
09-16-18 90 ↓ 71.3°F 70 68 90.5 °F 90 91 ↓ 73.9°F 69 69 95.2 °F 89 90   71 71   90 91   77 70   91
09-15-18 91 ↓ 69.3°F 69 67 92.8 °F 88 89 ↓ 71.3°F 69 67 90.5 °F 89 90 73.9°F 70 68 95.2 °F 92 89   72 69   93
09-14-18 88 71.8°F 70 69 91.6 °F 89 90 69.3°F 67 66 92.8 °F 87 86 71.3°F 67 67 90.5 °F 89 90 73.9°F 69 67 95.2 °F 93
09-13-18 85 ↓ 70.3°F 67 70 84.6 °F 88 87 71.8°F 67 68 91.6 °F 87 89 69.3°F 67 66 92.8 °F 85 88 71.3°F 67 66 90.5 °F 86
09-12-18 83 ↓ 67.1°F 66 68 83.2 °F 83 85 70.3°F 67 69 84.6 °F 90 90 71.8°F 68 67 91.6 °F 90 89 69.3°F 68 67 92.8 °F 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0
% Succ     83.3     33.3     0.0     20.0     0.0     50.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 17.6   1.6 21.0   2.5 17.1   3.5 23.1   4.7 17.2   3.6 25.5   3.5 17.5   3.5 26.2   4.2
Net Error 17.6   -1.6 -21.0   -1.3 17.1   -3.5 -23.1   -2.5 17.2   -3.6 -25.5   -3.5 17.5   -3.5 -26.2   -4.2
Std Dev 7.5   1.1 9.4   1.7 10.9   2.4 14.8   3.4 14.9   3.1 22.1   3.1 17.5   3.5 26.2   4.2

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-18 71   65 92   91 72   77 87   87 58   65 69   71 49   50 74   73
09-17-18 70 73.9°F 72 92 95.2 °F 94 71   71 93   91 71   76 85   90 60   67 72   77
09-16-18 68 71.3°F 70 91 ↓ 90.5 °F 93 69 73.9°F 70 90 95.2 °F 93 71   71 91   93 70   76 82   89
09-15-18 67 69.3°F 70 89 ↓ 92.8 °F 90 67 71.3°F 68 90 90.5 °F 91 68 73.9°F 69 89 95.2 °F 93 69   70 89   91
09-14-18 69 71.8°F 69 90 91.6 °F 91 66 69.3°F 68 86 92.8 °F 89 67 71.3°F 67 90 90.5 °F 90 67 73.9°F 68 87 95.2 °F 92
09-13-18 70 70.3°F 66 87 84.6 °F 89 68 71.8°F 67 89 91.6 °F 89 66 69.3°F 68 88 92.8 °F 87 66 71.3°F 68 88 90.5 °F 88
09-12-18 68 67.1°F 67 85 83.2 °F 84 69 70.3°F 67 90 84.6 °F 91 67 71.8°F 68 89 91.6 °F 90 67 69.3°F 68 87 92.8 °F 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 0
% Succ 33.3   66.7 50.0   50.0 20.0   20.0 20.0   20.0     25.0 25.0   50.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 2.3   1.9 2.2   2.1 3.5   3.3 4.1   3.1 4.6   3.6 3.5   2.5 4.8   3.5 5.5   3.8
Net Error -2.0   -1.6 -0.6   0.5 -3.5   -3.3 -1.9   -0.3 -4.6   -3.6 -3.5   -2.5 -4.8   -3.5 -5.5   -3.8
Std Dev 1.5   1.4 1.4   1.5 2.3   2.3 3.3   2.3 4.0   3.2 3.3   2.2 4.8   3.5 5.5   3.8

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-18 71   63 92   86 72   70 87   87 58   66 69   71 49   51 74   73
09-17-18 70 69.5°F 70 92 95.2 °F 92 71   70 93   91 71   76 85   90 60   67 72   77
09-16-18 68 80.6°F 68 91 ↓ 90.5 °F 91 69 69.5°F 68 90 95.2 °F 91 71   69 91   92 70   76 82   89
09-15-18 67 77.2°F 69 89 ↓ 92.8 °F 88 67 80.6°F 67 90 90.5 °F 90 68 69.5°F 69 89 95.2 °F 92 69   70 89   91
09-14-18 69 79.6°F 67 90 91.6 °F 89 66 77.2°F 66 86 92.8 °F 87 67 80.6°F 65 90 90.5 °F 89 67 69.5°F 67 87 95.2 °F 92
09-13-18 70 77.4°F 64 87 84.6 °F 87 68 79.6°F 66 89 91.6 °F 87 66 77.2°F 65 88 92.8 °F 85 66 80.6°F 66 88 90.5 °F 87
09-12-18 67 72.3°F 66 85 83.2 °F 81 69 77.4°F 65 90 84.6 °F 89 67 79.6°F 68 89 91.6 °F 90 67 77.2°F 68 87 92.8 °F 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 50.0   16.7 20.0   20.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   50.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 7.8   8.9 2.2   2.6 9.1   10.5 4.1   3.9 9.7   10.0 3.5   3.5 9.1   8.8 5.5   4.2
Net Error -7.6   -8.8 -0.6   -1.7 -9.1   -10.5 -1.9   -2.1 -9.7   -10.0 -3.5   -3.5 -9.1   -8.8 -5.5   -4.2
Std Dev 5.0   5.7 1.4   1.7 7.2   7.9 3.3   3.0 9.4   9.9 3.3   3.1 9.1   8.8 5.5   4.2

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.