Current WXSIM Forecast

Friday, 22-Sep-2023 11:00 am

This
afternoon
Cloudy
Cloudy
High: 71°
Tonight

Chance rain
Chance rain
Low: 62°
Saturday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 81°
Saturday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Low: 60°
Sunday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 79°
Sunday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 56°
Monday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 79°
Monday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 56°
Tuesday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 81°

Current NWS Forecast

Fri, 22-Sep-2023 1:05pm CDT

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 77 °F ↓
Tonight

Tonight: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 67 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 81 °F ↓
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Showers And TStorms Likely then Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 57 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 81 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 56 °F
Monday

Monday: Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 80 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Clear
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms then Mostly Clear

Lo 57 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 79 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-22-23 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-22-23 63   62 82   73 66   64 81   82 57   61 79   80 55   58 76   80
09-21-23 62 ↑ 67.3°F 63 82 ↓ 82.0 °F 81 63   64 82   79 64   66 79   78 56   68 77   80
09-20-23 64 ↑ 66.8°F 62 84 86.1 °F 85 60 67.3°F 64 81 82.0 °F 84 63   65 81   81 63   66 79   74
09-19-23 67 ↑ 66.3°F 70 89 89.5 °F 92 63 ↑ 66.8°F 67 84 86.1 °F 85 60 67.3°F 64 83 82.0 °F 80 63   66 81   81
09-18-23 55 75.7°F 59 89 ↓ 92.0 °F 83 63 ↑ 66.3°F 67 87 89.5 °F 91 63 66.8°F 68 84 86.1 °F 90 60 67.3°F 64 81 82.0 °F 85
09-17-23 50 ↑ 63.9°F 50 79 ↓ 80.4 °F 75 53 75.7°F 53 89 92.0 °F 83 63 66.3°F 65 87 89.5 °F 89 62 66.8°F 68 83 86.1 °F 86
09-16-23 56 54.0°F 59 80 ↓ 81.1 °F 80 50 63.9°F 56 78 80.4 °F 79 53 75.7°F 56 86 92.0 °F 86 63 66.3°F 69 86 89.5 °F 95
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 4 3 0 2 1 4 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 1
% Succ 33.3   0.0 66.7   50.0     40.0 20.0   80.0     50.0 25.0   50.0     33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 7.6   8.1 1.4   3.4 10.2   7.0 2.2   3.0 9.3   6.4 2.9   3.1 5.1   2.4 2.5   2.9
Net Error -6.7   -5.2 -1.4   -2.5 -10.2   -6.6 -2.2   -1.6 -9.3   -5.8 -2.4   -1.2 -5.1   0.2 -2.5   2.8
Std Dev 7.6   6.0 1.1   3.1 7.8   6.2 1.5   2.2 8.1   5.7 2.7   2.7 5.1   2.4 2.5   2.9

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-22-23 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-22-23 63 ↑   70 78   62 67   81 81   60 57   79 81   57 56   79 80   57
09-21-23 62 ↑ 63.3°F 81 84 82.0 °F 63 63 ↑   78 81   66 65   79 81   68 57   81 79   62
09-20-23 64 62.7°F 87 83 86.1 °F 64 60 ↑ 63.3°F 82 81 82.0 °F 64 62   80 81   65 63   74 81   63
09-19-23 67 ↑ 62.9°F 92 91 ↓ 89.5 °F 69 64 ↑ 62.7°F 85 83 86.1 °F 64 61 63.3°F 80 82 82.0 °F 66 62   81 80   67
09-18-23 55 74.6°F 84 91 92.0 °F 68 65 ↑ 62.9°F 91 89 89.5 °F 67 63 62.7°F 88 82 86.1 °F 63 59 63.3°F 84 81 82.0 °F 65
09-17-23 47 60.8°F 74 78 80.4 °F 53 55 74.6°F 83 88 92.0 °F 65 63 62.9°F 89 87 89.5 °F 68 62 62.7°F 87 85 86.1 °F 63
09-16-23 56 50.1°F 77 80 81.1 °F 54 50 ↑ 60.8°F 77 78 80.4 °F 54 53 74.6°F 84 87 92.0 °F 69 64 62.9°F 93 87 89.5 °F 72
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 4 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
% Succ 33.3   0.0 66.7   0.0 20.0   0.0 40.0   0.0 50.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 66.7   0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 7.7   20.1 1.9   23.4 7.4   18.7 2.2   23.2 6.1   19.4 2.9   20.9 2.0   25.0 1.5   19.2
Net Error -3.9   20.1 -0.7   -23.4 -6.1   18.7 -2.2   -23.2 -5.9   19.4 -2.9   -20.9 -1.3   25.0 -1.5   -19.2
Std Dev 7.4   10.6 1.0   9.9 6.2   12.7 1.7   14.9 5.6   16.8 2.9   18.3 2.0   25.0 1.5   19.2

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-22-23 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-22-23 78   69 67   61 81 ↓   80 57   60 81   79 56   56 80   78 57   56
09-21-23 84 82.0 °F 79 63 ↑ 62.8°F 64 81   77 65   63 81   78 57   60 79   77 55   57
09-20-23 83 86.1 °F 85 60 ↑ 61.5°F 66 81 82.0 °F 84 62 62.8°F 65 81   76 63   67 81   77 55   62
09-19-23 >85 89.5 °F 90 <65 62.8°F 67 <85 86.1 °F 86 >55 61.5°F 65 <85 82.0 °F 85 <65 62.8°F 65 >75   80 <65   67
09-18-23 91 92.0 °F 82 65 ↑ 70.5°F 65 89 89.5 °F 87 63 62.8°F 64 82 86.1 °F 86 59 61.5°F 64 81 82.0 °F 83 62 62.8°F 65
09-17-23 78 80.4 °F 73 55 60.3°F 52 88 92.0 °F 84 63 70.5°F 68 87 89.5 °F 92 62 62.8°F 70 85 86.1 °F 85 61 61.5°F 63
09-16-23 80 81.1 °F 73 50 ↑ 48.5°F 52 78 80.4 °F 76 53 60.3°F 53 87 92.0 °F 84 64 70.5°F 66 87 89.5 °F 90 62 62.8°F 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 2 3 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 3 3 1
% Succ 50.0   33.3 50.0   16.7 40.0   40.0 40.0   20.0     25.0 25.0   0.0 66.7   100.0 100.0   33.3
Ave Error 16.5   5.0 12.8   4.5 18.8   3.4 15.5   3.3 23.4   3.4 18.2   4.1 1.5   0.9 0.7   3.6
Net Error -15.9   -4.9 -12.2   -0.1 -18.8   -2.6 -15.4   -0.6 -23.4   -0.6 -18.2   1.9 -1.5   0.1 -0.7   3.6
Std Dev 32.7   4.0 22.6   2.8 34.3   2.7 24.7   2.4 35.6   3.0 27.3   3.7 1.5   0.9 0.7   3.6

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-22-23 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-22-23 78   71 67   62 81 ↓   81 57   60 81   79 56   56 80   79 57   56
09-21-23 84 82.0 °F 81 63 ↑ 62.8°F 65 81   80 65   65 81   80 57   60 79   78 55   56
09-20-23 83 86.1 °F 83 60 ↑ 61.5°F 65 81 82.0 °F 86 62 62.8°F 65 81   78 63   67 81   77 55   62
09-19-23 91 ↓ 89.5 °F 90 64 ↑ 62.8°F 68 83 86.1 °F 87 61 61.5°F 67 82 82.0 °F 87 62 62.8°F 66 80   80 63   67
09-18-23 91 92.0 °F 86 65 ↑ 70.5°F 69 89 89.5 °F 91 63 62.8°F 65 82 86.1 °F 88 59 61.5°F 65 81 82.0 °F 88 62 62.8°F 66
09-17-23 78 80.4 °F 76 55 60.3°F 54 88 92.0 °F 84 63 70.5°F 68 87 89.5 °F 92 62 62.8°F 70 85 86.1 °F 86 61 61.5°F 62
09-16-23 80 81.1 °F 75 50 ↑ 48.6°F 52 78 80.4 °F 77 53 60.3°F 54 87 92.0 °F 85 64 70.5°F 66 87 89.5 °F 90 62 62.8°F 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 2 4 1 2 2 3 0 1 1 2 0 2 2 3 1
% Succ 66.7   33.3 66.7   16.7 40.0   40.0 60.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 50.0   0.0 66.7   66.7 100.0   33.3
Ave Error 1.9   3.5 2.5   3.7 2.2   3.6 3.3   3.7 2.9   4.1 2.7   4.6 1.5   2.2 0.7   3.6
Net Error -0.7   -3.4 -1.6   1.1 -2.2   -1.0 -3.2   0.2 -2.9   0.6 -2.7   2.4 -1.5   2.1 -0.7   3.6
Std Dev 1.0   2.4 2.3   2.2 1.7   2.7 3.0   2.7 2.9   3.6 2.5   4.0 1.5   2.2 0.7   3.6

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-21-23 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-21-23 82 ↓   82 63   67 82   85 66   68 81   84 57   63 79   81 55   60
09-20-23 85 86.1 °F 82 60 ↑ 61.5°F 64 81   82 62   65 81   81 63   66 81   80 55   61
09-19-23 91 ↓ 89.5 °F 91 64 ↑ 62.8°F 68 83 86.1 °F 88 61 61.5°F 68 82   86 62   65 80   84 63   68
09-18-23 91 92.0 °F 89 65 ↑ 70.5°F 71 89 89.5 °F 93 63 62.8°F 67 82 86.1 °F 89 59 61.5°F 65 81   86 62   64
09-17-23 78 80.4 °F 77 55 60.3°F 55 89 ↓ 92.0 °F 85 63 70.5°F 69 87 89.5 °F 94 62 62.8°F 73 85 86.1 °F 92 61 61.5°F 64
09-16-23 80 ↓ 81.1 °F 78 50 ↑ 48.6°F 55 79 ↓ 80.4 °F 76 53 60.3°F 55 87 92.0 °F 84 64 70.5°F 67 87 89.5 °F 93 62 62.8°F 73
09-15-23 77 ↓ 78.0 °F 75 55 ↑ 57.0°F 60 81 ↓ 81.1 °F 78 50 48.6°F 55 79 80.4 °F 77 55 60.3°F 56 88 92.0 °F 82 64 70.5°F 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 1 4 1 3 1 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0
% Succ 83.3   16.7 66.7   16.7 60.0   20.0 60.0   20.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 1.4   3.0 2.8   3.8 1.6   4.0 3.4   4.8 3.3   4.7 3.8   5.4 2.5   6.5 2.6   5.7
Net Error -0.8   -2.5 -2.0   2.1 -1.6   -1.8 -2.7   2.1 -3.3   -1.0 -3.8   1.5 -2.5   -0.2 -2.6   2.7
Std Dev 0.7   1.5 2.1   2.5 1.5   3.0 3.4   3.5 2.8   4.2 3.3   4.7 2.5   6.5 2.6   5.7

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-21-23 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-21-23 82 ↓   64 63   81 82   67 66   84 81   63 57   80 79   60 55   84
09-20-23 86 86.1 °F 66 62 ↑ 61.5°F 83 82 ↓   66 63   81 82   66 64   80 79   61 56   79
09-19-23 91 ↓ 89.5 °F 70 63 ↑ 62.8°F 88 83 86.1 °F 67 60 61.5°F 83 81   64 63   83 81   68 63   83
09-18-23 91 92.0 °F 71 66 ↑ 70.5°F 93 90 89.5 °F 68 63 62.8°F 90 84 86.1 °F 66 60 61.5°F 88 83   65 63   87
09-17-23 78 80.4 °F 57 55 60.3°F 86 89 ↓ 92.0 °F 68 63 70.5°F 94 87 89.5 °F 73 63 62.8°F 92 84 86.1 °F 64 60 61.5°F 91
09-16-23 80 ↓ 81.1 °F 55 50 ↑ 48.6°F 78 79 ↓ 80.4 °F 55 53 60.3°F 84 89 92.0 °F 67 63 70.5°F 92 87 89.5 °F 73 62 62.8°F 90
09-15-23 77 ↓ 78.0 °F 58 56 57.0°F 77 80 ↓ 81.1 °F 54 50 48.6°F 77 78 80.4 °F 55 53 60.3°F 82 86 92.0 °F 66 63 70.5°F 91
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0
% Succ 83.3   0.0 66.7   0.0 60.0   0.0 60.0   0.0     0.0 50.0   0.0     0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 1.2   21.7 2.2   24.1 1.8   23.4 3.6   24.9 2.5   21.8 4.1   24.7 3.5   21.5 3.3   25.7
Net Error -0.7   -21.7 -1.5   24.1 -1.6   -23.4 -2.9   24.9 -2.5   -21.8 -4.0   24.7 -3.5   -21.5 -3.3   25.7
Std Dev 0.8   9.1 2.1   10.2 1.5   15.0 3.4   15.8 2.2   18.9 3.8   21.4 3.5   21.5 3.3   25.7

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-21-23 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-21-23 63   66 82   78 66   64 81   82 57   62 79   81 55   59 76   82
09-20-23 62 ↑ 61.5°F 63 82 ↓ 86.1 °F 82 63   64 82   74 64   65 79   76 56   60 77   77
09-19-23 63 ↑ 62.8°F 66 83 89.5 °F 85 60 61.5°F 64 81 86.1 °F 83 63   64 81   83 63   68 79   85
09-18-23 66 ↑ 70.5°F 72 90 92.0 °F 94 63 ↑ 62.8°F 67 84 89.5 °F 89 60 61.5°F 66 83 86.1 °F 85 63   64 81   84
09-17-23 55 60.3°F 57 89 ↓ 80.4 °F 84 63 ↑ 70.5°F 68 87 92.0 °F 93 63 62.8°F 69 84 89.5 °F 87 60 61.5°F 61 81 86.1 °F 85
09-16-23 50 ↑ 48.6°F 57 79 ↓ 81.1 °F 78 53 60.3°F 56 89 80.4 °F 85 63 70.5°F 68 87 92.0 °F 94 62 62.8°F 68 83 89.5 °F 92
09-15-23 56 57.0°F 59 80 ↓ 78.0 °F 80 50 48.6°F 55 78 81.1 °F 79 53 60.3°F 56 86 80.4 °F 84 63 70.5°F 68 86 92.0 °F 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 3 2 2 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 1 0 1
% Succ 66.7   50.0 33.3   33.3 60.0   0.0     40.0 50.0   0.0     50.0 66.7   33.3     33.3
Ave Error 2.2   3.3 4.2   3.2 3.6   4.0 5.5   2.3 4.1   4.4 4.8   2.3 3.3   2.7 5.9   3.5
Net Error -1.5   2.2 -0.7   -0.7 -2.9   1.3 -2.0   0.0 -4.0   1.0 -2.0   0.5 -3.3   0.7 -5.9   -1.9
Std Dev 2.1   2.7 2.9   1.6 3.4   2.7 3.5   1.8 3.8   3.8 4.2   2.1 3.3   2.7 5.9   3.5

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-21-23 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-21-23 63   62 82   76 66   66 81   85 57   64 79   82 55   59 76   82
09-20-23 62 ↑ 68.2°F 64 82 ↓ 86.1 °F 81 63   65 82   76 64   67 79   81 56   63 77   79
09-19-23 64 ↑ 70.8°F 64 84 89.5 °F 87 60 68.2°F 64 81 86.1 °F 84 63   63 81   82 63   68 79   85
09-18-23 67 ↑ 70.8°F 70 89 92.0 °F 92 63 ↑ 70.8°F 67 84 89.5 °F 89 60 68.2°F 66 83 86.1 °F 85 63   64 81   83
09-17-23 55 78.3°F 57 89 ↓ 80.4 °F 83 63 ↑ 70.8°F 69 87 92.0 °F 94 63 70.8°F 70 84 89.5 °F 86 60 68.2°F 61 81 86.1 °F 84
09-16-23 50 ↑ 64.9°F 53 79 ↓ 81.1 °F 77 53 78.3°F 55 89 80.4 °F 85 63 70.8°F 68 87 92.0 °F 94 62 70.8°F 68 83 89.5 °F 92
09-15-23 56 60.4°F 60 80 ↓ 78.0 °F 80 50 64.9°F 56 78 81.1 °F 79 53 78.3°F 56 86 80.4 °F 84 63 70.8°F 68 86 92.0 °F 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
% Succ     33.3 16.7   33.3     20.0     40.0     25.0     50.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 9.9   7.6 4.2   2.7 12.8   8.4 5.5   2.3 12.3   7.0 4.8   2.6 8.3   4.3 5.9   3.9
Net Error -9.9   -7.6 -0.7   -1.2 -12.8   -8.4 -2.0   0.4 -12.3   -7.0 -2.0   0.3 -8.3   -4.3 -5.9   -2.2
Std Dev 7.8   7.3 2.7   1.9 8.9   6.7 3.5   1.6 10.8   6.5 4.2   2.3 8.3   4.3 5.9   3.9

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.