Current WXSIM Forecast

Thursday, 19-Sep-2019 05:00 am

Today

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 93°
Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 72°
Friday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 88°
Friday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 68°
Saturday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 85°
Saturday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 62°
Sunday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 81°
Sunday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 59°
Monday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 84°

Current NWS Forecast

Thu, 19-Sep-2019 7:35am CDT

Today

Today: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Showers And TStorms Likely then Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 88 °F
Tonight

Tonight: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Lo 68 °F
Friday

Friday: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 86 °F ↓
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 71 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 87 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 61 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 79 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 59 °F
Monday

Monday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 84 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-19-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-19-19 71 ↑   73 89   94 70   73 86   89 70   69 85   85 62   62 80   81
09-18-19 73 ↑ 77.3°F 72 90 91.5 °F 94 70   71 88   89 70   72 85   83 68   66 83   84
09-17-19 74 ↑ 78.1°F 76 92 92.6 °F 93 72 ↑ 77.3°F 73 89 91.5 °F 94 70   72 88   88 71   72 86   80
09-16-19 68 78.9°F 71 94 92.4 °F 90 73 78.1°F 69 92 92.6 °F 89 72 77.3°F 70 88 91.5 °F 87 68   71 87   85
09-15-19 66 ↑ 78.2°F 71 94 96.9 °F 95 68 78.9°F 70 92 92.4 °F 95 74 78.1°F 72 91 92.6 °F 92 72 77.3°F 69 87 91.5 °F 89
09-14-19 62 ↑ 75.6°F 64 88 87.8 °F 88 65 ↑ 78.2°F 69 91 96.9 °F 94 69 78.9°F 70 91 92.4 °F 91 73 78.1°F 71 91 92.6 °F 91
09-13-19 54 ↑ 66.9°F 57 81 87.3 °F 80 64 75.6°F 60 87 87.8 °F 85 67 78.2°F 66 89 96.9 °F 94 70 78.9°F 69 90 92.4 °F 94
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 4 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 2
% Succ     0.0 66.7   50.0     0.0 60.0   0.0     0.0 50.0   50.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 9.7   7.3 2.2   2.5 9.2   9.4 2.0   2.9 7.6   8.6 3.6   2.4 6.4   8.4 2.8   1.9
Net Error -9.7   -7.3 -1.6   -1.4 -9.2   -9.4 -2.0   -0.8 -7.6   -8.6 -3.6   -2.4 -6.4   -8.4 -2.8   -0.8
Std Dev 5.4   4.2 1.4   1.6 6.4   6.4 1.6   1.9 6.7   7.5 3.1   2.3 6.4   8.4 2.8   1.9

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-19-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-19-19 71 ↑   93 89   72 70   88 86   68 70   85 85   62 62   81 80   59
09-18-19 73 ↑ 73.7°F 96 89 91.5 °F 72 70   90 88   73 70   82 84   66 69   83 83   64
09-17-19 74 77.1°F 94 91 92.6 °F 73 72 ↑ 73.7°F 94 89 91.5 °F 72 69   88 88   72 71   80 84   69
09-16-19 68 ↑ 76.2°F 93 93 92.4 °F 74 72 ↑ 77.1°F 92 91 92.6 °F 69 73 73.7°F 87 89 91.5 °F 70 69   87 89   71
09-15-19 66 ↑ 78.2°F 95 94 96.9 °F 71 68 76.2°F 96 92 92.4 °F 72 74 77.1°F 92 91 92.6 °F 69 72 73.7°F 89 87 91.5 °F 64
09-14-19 62 ↑ 71.5°F 88 87 87.8 °F 69 66 ↑ 78.2°F 94 90 96.9 °F 71 70 76.2°F 94 91 92.4 °F 73 73 77.1°F 91 90 92.6 °F 70
09-13-19 54 ↑ 64.7°F 80 82 87.3 °F 60 61 71.5°F 86 85 87.8 °F 66 67 78.2°F 94 91 96.9 °F 69 70 76.2°F 94 91 92.4 °F 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0 50.0   0.0 20.0   0.0 40.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 50.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 7.4   17.4 2.3   21.6 7.5   17.1 2.8   22.2 5.3   15.5 2.9   23.1 4.0   15.7 2.8   24.2
Net Error -7.4   17.4 -2.1   -21.6 -7.5   17.1 -2.8   -22.2 -5.3   15.5 -2.9   -23.1 -4.0   15.7 -2.8   -24.2
Std Dev 4.9   7.4 1.4   9.2 5.6   11.0 2.2   14.2 5.1   13.4 2.5   20.0 4.0   15.7 2.8   24.2

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-19 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-19 89   93 70   72 88   90 70   73 84   84 69   69 83   85 60   65
09-17-19 91 92.6 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 73 89   93 69   72 88   88 71   72 84   82 66   68
09-16-19 93 92.4 °F 95 72 ↑ 74.8°F 71 91 92.6 °F 90 73 75.5°F 69 89   90 69   72 89   89 71   71
09-15-19 92 96.9 °F 93 68 72.8°F 71 91 ↓ 92.4 °F 95 74 74.8°F 72 92 92.6 °F 91 72 75.5°F 70 87   90 66   69
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 89 66 ↑ 68.9°F 69 90 96.9 °F 91 70 72.8°F 69 91 92.4 °F 90 73 74.8°F 70 90 92.6 °F 90 71 75.5°F 69
09-13-19 82 87.3 °F 78 61 64.8°F 59 85 87.8 °F 84 67 68.9°F 64 91 96.9 °F 93 70 72.8°F 68 91 92.4 °F 93 72 74.8°F 70
09-12-19 79 ↓ 82.0 °F 81 54 ↑ 56.6°F 59 81 87.3 °F 80 64 64.8°F 61 87 87.8 °F 85 67 68.9°F 66 89 96.9 °F 92 70 72.8°F 68
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 0 2 2 0 3 0 3 1 2 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ 50.0   50.0     33.3 40.0   0.0 60.0   0.0 75.0   25.0 50.0   0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 2.7   3.1 3.4   2.7 3.8   4.4 1.8   4.4 2.2   2.7 2.5   4.5 4.0   2.7 3.4   5.4
Net Error -2.5   -1.8 -3.4   -1.9 -3.8   -3.4 -1.8   -4.4 -2.2   -2.7 -2.5   -4.5 -4.0   -2.3 -3.4   -5.4
Std Dev 2.2   3.1 1.5   2.1 3.1   3.1 1.3   3.0 2.0   2.4 2.2   3.9 4.0   2.7 3.4   5.4

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-19 89   92 70   71 88   90 70   73 84   84 69   70 83   84 60   65
09-17-19 91 92.6 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 72 89   91 69   72 88   91 71   73 84   84 66   69
09-16-19 93 92.4 °F 95 72 ↑ 74.8°F 72 91 92.6 °F 90 73 75.5°F 70 89   90 69   71 89   89 71   71
09-15-19 92 96.9 °F 93 68 72.8°F 72 91 ↓ 92.4 °F 94 74 74.8°F 73 92 92.6 °F 91 72 75.5°F 70 87   90 66   69
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 87 66 ↑ 68.9°F 70 90 96.9 °F 92 70 72.8°F 70 91 92.4 °F 89 73 74.8°F 70 90 92.6 °F 90 71 75.5°F 69
09-13-19 82 87.3 °F 77 61 64.8°F 60 85 87.8 °F 85 67 68.9°F 65 91 96.9 °F 93 70 72.8°F 68 91 92.4 °F 93 72 74.8°F 71
09-12-19 79 ↓ 82.0 °F 82 54 ↑ 56.6°F 57 81 87.3 °F 78 64 64.8°F 60 87 87.8 °F 86 67 68.9°F 67 89 96.9 °F 93 70 72.8°F 69
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 0 3 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0
% Succ 50.0   50.0     50.0 40.0   20.0 60.0   20.0 75.0   50.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 2.7   3.0 3.4   2.2 3.8   4.2 1.8   3.8 2.2   2.7 2.5   4.3 4.0   2.4 3.4   4.7
Net Error -2.5   -2.2 -3.4   -1.7 -3.8   -3.6 -1.8   -3.8 -2.2   -2.7 -2.5   -4.3 -4.0   -2.0 -3.4   -4.7
Std Dev 2.2   3.5 1.5   1.7 3.1   3.0 1.3   2.7 2.0   2.4 2.2   3.7 4.0   2.4 3.4   4.7

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-19 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-19 89   94 70   72 88   90 70   73 84   81 69   70 83   82 60   63
09-17-19 91 92.6 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 72 89   91 69   72 88   84 71   70 84   81 66   68
09-16-19 93 92.4 °F 94 72 ↑ 74.8°F 75 91 92.6 °F 90 73 75.5°F 71 89   90 69   73 89   83 71   73
09-15-19 92 96.9 °F 95 68 72.8°F 73 91 ↓ 92.4 °F 95 74 74.8°F 73 92 92.6 °F 92 72 75.5°F 70 87   89 66   65
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 86 66 ↑ 68.9°F 69 90 96.9 °F 92 70 72.8°F 70 91 92.4 °F 93 73 74.8°F 73 90 92.6 °F 91 71 75.5°F 71
09-13-19 82 87.3 °F 83 61 64.8°F 62 85 87.8 °F 86 67 68.9°F 66 91 96.9 °F 91 70 72.8°F 68 91 92.4 °F 91 72 74.8°F 72
09-12-19 82 ↓ 82.0 °F 81 54 ↑ 56.6°F 60 81 87.3 °F 80 64 64.8°F 60 87 87.8 °F 85 67 68.9°F 64 89 96.9 °F 92 70 72.8°F 68
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 5 0 3 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 2 0 0
% Succ 66.7   83.3     50.0 40.0   20.0 60.0   20.0 75.0   50.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   66.7     0.0
Ave Error 2.2   1.9 3.4   1.7 3.8   3.8 1.8   3.4 2.2   2.5 2.5   4.3 4.0   2.6 3.4   4.0
Net Error -2.0   -1.3 -3.4   -0.4 -3.8   -2.8 -1.8   -3.4 -2.2   -2.2 -2.5   -4.3 -4.0   -2.6 -3.4   -4.0
Std Dev 2.1   1.4 1.5   1.5 3.1   2.6 1.3   2.3 2.0   2.3 2.2   3.7 4.0   2.6 3.4   4.0

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-19 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-19 91   71 71   89 89   72 70   82 86   69 70   82 85   62 62   82
09-17-19 92 ↓ 92.6 °F 73 73 ↑ 75.5°F 91 90   72 70   82 88   70 70   80 85   68 68   80
09-16-19 93 ↓ 92.4 °F 76 74 ↑ 74.8°F 92 92 92.6 °F 71 72 75.5°F 90 89   73 70   83 88   73 71   82
09-15-19 92 ↓ 96.9 °F 73 69 72.8°F 95 94 92.4 °F 71 73 74.8°F 89 92 92.6 °F 69 72 75.5°F 90 88   65 68   83
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 69 66 ↑ 68.9°F 93 90 96.9 °F 70 70 72.8°F 94 91 92.4 °F 73 73 74.8°F 92 90 92.6 °F 72 71 75.5°F 87
09-13-19 83 87.3 °F 64 62 64.8°F 87 88 87.8 °F 68 65 68.9°F 91 91 96.9 °F 68 69 72.8°F 91 91 92.4 °F 72 73 74.8°F 90
09-12-19 82 ↓ 82.0 °F 59 54 ↑ 56.6°F 80 81 87.3 °F 60 64 64.8°F 84 87 87.8 °F 64 67 68.9°F 92 89 96.9 °F 68 70 72.8°F 92
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 66.7   0.0 16.7   0.0 60.0   0.0 40.0   0.0 75.0   0.0 50.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 1.9   20.8 2.6   20.8 3.1   23.4 2.6   18.2 2.2   23.9 2.8   18.3 4.0   23.3 3.0   15.3
Net Error -1.7   -20.8 -2.6   20.8 -2.4   -23.4 -2.6   18.2 -2.2   -23.9 -2.8   18.3 -4.0   -23.3 -3.0   15.3
Std Dev 2.0   8.9 1.4   9.0 2.9   14.9 1.7   11.9 2.0   20.7 2.4   15.9 4.0   23.3 3.0   15.3

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-19 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-19 71   69 89   87 70   71 86   77 70   68 85   85 62   65 80   81
09-17-19 73 ↑ 75.5°F 73 90 92.6 °F 90 70   72 88   84 70   72 85   80 68   69 83   82
09-16-19 74 ↑ 74.8°F 75 92 92.4 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 72 89 92.6 °F 92 70   70 88   88 71   73 86   82
09-15-19 69 72.8°F 74 94 96.9 °F 97 73 74.8°F 73 92 92.4 °F 93 72 75.5°F 70 88 92.6 °F 90 68   70 87   88
09-14-19 66 ↑ 68.9°F 71 94 87.8 °F 93 68 72.8°F 70 92 96.9 °F 94 74 74.8°F 73 91 92.4 °F 90 72 75.5°F 70 87 92.6 °F 90
09-13-19 62 64.8°F 65 88 87.3 °F 89 65 ↑ 68.9°F 69 91 87.8 °F 94 69 72.8°F 70 91 96.9 °F 91 73 74.8°F 70 91 92.4 °F 92
09-12-19 54 ↑ 56.6°F 59 81 82.0 °F 79 64 64.8°F 60 87 87.3 °F 86 67 68.9°F 65 89 87.8 °F 93 70 72.8°F 69 90 96.9 °F 93
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 0 1 0 1 1
% Succ 16.7   50.0 50.0   50.0 40.0   40.0 40.0   60.0 50.0   25.0 50.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 2.6   1.4 2.3   2.2 3.0   2.6 2.5   2.3 2.5   3.5 3.3   4.0 2.7   4.7 4.6   2.3
Net Error -2.6   0.6 0.0   0.2 -3.0   -2.6 -1.2   0.4 -2.5   -3.5 -2.7   -1.4 -2.7   -4.7 -4.6   -2.3
Std Dev 1.4   1.1 2.1   1.9 2.1   1.7 2.2   1.8 2.2   3.2 2.9   3.6 2.7   4.7 4.6   2.3

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-18-19 71 ↑   73 89   91 70   72 86   81 70   70 85   87 62   65 80   83
09-17-19 73 ↑ 79.3°F 72 90 92.6 °F 93 70   71 88   87 70   72 85   81 68   69 83   83
09-16-19 74 ↑ 79.4°F 76 92 92.4 °F 92 72 ↑ 79.3°F 72 89 92.6 °F 93 70   70 88   87 71   72 86   81
09-15-19 68 79.9°F 74 94 96.9 °F 96 73 79.4°F 73 92 92.4 °F 93 72 79.3°F 71 88 92.6 °F 90 68   70 87   88
09-14-19 66 ↑ 80.1°F 71 94 87.8 °F 95 68 79.9°F 71 92 96.9 °F 95 74 79.4°F 73 91 92.4 °F 90 72 79.3°F 70 87 92.6 °F 91
09-13-19 62 79.4°F 65 88 87.3 °F 87 65 ↑ 80.1°F 68 91 87.8 °F 93 69 79.9°F 71 91 96.9 °F 93 73 79.4°F 72 91 92.4 °F 92
09-12-19 54 ↑ 68.9°F 58 81 82.0 °F 79 64 79.4°F 60 87 87.3 °F 86 67 80.1°F 65 89 87.8 °F 93 70 79.9°F 68 90 96.9 °F 93
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 3 4 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2
% Succ     0.0 50.0   66.7     0.0 40.0   80.0     0.0 50.0   0.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 11.7   8.5 2.3   2.0 11.2   10.8 2.5   1.9 9.2   9.7 3.3   3.5 7.9   9.5 4.6   2.0
Net Error -11.7   -8.5 0.0   0.5 -11.2   -10.8 -1.2   0.6 -9.2   -9.7 -2.7   -0.9 -7.9   -9.5 -4.6   -2.0
Std Dev 6.4   4.9 2.1   2.6 7.6   7.3 2.2   1.5 8.0   8.4 2.9   3.1 7.9   9.5 4.6   2.0

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.