Current WXSIM Forecast

Monday, 18-Mar-2019 11:00 am

This
afternoon
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 50°
Tonight

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 36°
Tuesday

Rain likely
Rain likely
High: 42°
Tuesday
night
Fog
Cold!
Fog
Cold!
Low: 31°
Wednesday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 52°
Wednesday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 32°
Thursday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 60°
Thursday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 37°
Friday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 64°

Current NWS Forecast

Mon, 18-Mar-2019 1:22pm CDT

This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Partly Sunny
Partly Sunny

Hi 47 °F
Tonight

Tonight: Chance Light Rain then Rain And Snow Likely
Chance Light Rain then Rain And Snow Likely

Lo 34 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Light Rain
Light Rain

Hi 46 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Slight Chance Light Rain
Slight Chance Light Rain

Lo 30 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 56 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 30 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 58 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 35 °F
Friday

Friday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 61 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 03-18-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-18-19 26   31 47   52 31   38 47   45 31   31 53   54 30   32 58   60
03-17-19 25 35.9°F 26 52 51.4 °F 51 25 ↑   27 49   51 32   33 49   39 32   29 51   50
03-16-19 23 ↑ 31.0°F 25 52 ↓ 57.1 °F 51 25 35.9°F 26 50 51.4 °F 53 24   25 47   49 30   32 51   58
03-15-19 27 ↑ 26.7°F 31 45 48.7 °F 46 23 31.0°F 24 49 57.1 °F 52 24 35.9°F 26 50 51.4 °F 51 24   24 46   47
03-14-19 37 ↑ 33.0°F 46 39 53.2 °F 47 26 26.7°F 30 43 48.7 °F 45 24 31.0°F 23 48 57.1 °F 50 25 35.9°F 26 50 51.4 °F 49
03-13-19 42 ↑ 51.7°F 43 57 64.1 °F 62 37 ↑ 33.0°F 52 39 53.2 °F 54 26 26.7°F 26 42 48.7 °F 41 21 31.0°F 24 51 57.1 °F 50
03-12-19 30 ↑ 43.7°F 38 44 48.2 °F 50 41 51.7°F 46 56 64.1 °F 58 37 33.0°F 46 41 53.2 °F 47 27 26.7°F 30 41 48.7 °F 42
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0 16.7   33.3 20.0   0.0 20.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 7.8   7.9 5.8   3.2 6.9   9.0 7.5   3.5 5.9   7.9 7.4   5.4 7.1   6.7 5.1   5.4
Net Error -6.3   -2.2 -5.6   -2.6 -5.3   -0.1 -7.5   -2.5 -3.9   -1.4 -7.4   -5.4 -6.9   -4.5 -5.1   -5.4
Std Dev 4.9   4.3 4.8   2.5 5.5   6.3 5.5   2.5 5.9   6.9 7.0   5.3 7.1   6.7 5.1   5.4

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 03-18-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-18-19 26   51 48   37 34   44 46   31 30   53 56   32 30   60 58   37
03-17-19 25 51.4 °F 52 51 29.7°F 27 24   51 49   33 31   39 47   29 30   50 52   31
03-16-19 24 57.1 °F 51 52 25.5°F 26 25 51.4 °F 53 51 29.7°F 25 24   49 48   32 31   58 55   34
03-15-19 30 ↑ 48.7 °F 46 46 26.0°F 24 27 57.1 °F 53 51 25.5°F 24 24 51.4 °F 50 50 29.7°F 26 25   50 48   29
03-14-19 37 ↑ 53.2 °F 42 38 31.9°F 30 27 48.7 °F 44 43 26.0°F 24 23 57.1 °F 50 48 25.5°F 26 25 51.4 °F 48 52 29.7°F 26
03-13-19 42 ↑ 64.1 °F 62 57 42.5°F 52 37 ↑ 53.2 °F 54 40 31.9°F 26 26 48.7 °F 41 42 26.0°F 24 22 57.1 °F 50 50 25.5°F 28
03-12-19 30 ↑ 48.2 °F 50 46 43.7°F 45 46 64.1 °F 53 56 42.5°F 46 37 53.2 °F 47 40 31.9°F 30 26 48.7 °F 42 44 26.0°F 27
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1
% Succ     33.3     66.7     40.0     40.0     25.0     75.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 22.5   4.1 15.1   3.0 22.5   4.5 17.1   3.5 25.1   5.6 16.7   2.0 28.1   5.7 21.6   2.4
Net Error -22.5   -3.3 15.1   0.8 -22.5   -3.5 17.1   -2.1 -25.1   -5.6 16.7   -1.8 -28.1   -5.7 21.6   -0.1
Std Dev 10.7   3.9 9.1   3.2 14.7   3.1 11.6   2.6 21.8   5.3 14.6   1.9 28.1   5.7 21.6   2.4

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 03-18-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-18-19 48   51 34   37 46   44 30   31 56   53 30   32 58   60 35   37
03-17-19 51 51.4 °F 51 24 25.9°F 27 49   50 31   34 47   49 30   29 52   50 29   29
03-16-19 52 57.1 °F 51 25 23.1°F 26 51 51.4 °F 53 24 25.9°F 25 48   49 31   32 55   58 32   34
03-15-19 46 48.7 °F 47 27 26.1°F 25 51 57.1 °F 54 24 23.1°F 26 50 51.4 °F 52 25 25.9°F 25 48   50 27   33
03-14-19 38 53.2 °F 38 27 30.8°F 29 43 48.7 °F 45 23 26.1°F 24 48 57.1 °F 50 25 23.1°F 26 52 51.4 °F 50 27 25.9°F 24
03-13-19 57 64.1 °F 62 37 ↑ 35.0°F 45 40 ↓ 53.2 °F 47 26 30.8°F 29 42 48.7 °F 43 22 26.1°F 25 50 57.1 °F 50 26 23.1°F 27
03-12-19 46 48.2 °F 51 46 43.7°F 47 56 64.1 °F 57 37 35.0°F 48 40 53.2 °F 48 26 30.8°F 31 44 48.7 °F 42 22 26.1°F 26
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 4 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 2
% Succ 16.7   33.3 66.7   50.0 20.0   20.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 50.0   75.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 5.5   4.7 2.1   3.4 6.7   4.3 2.5   4.1 7.6   4.7 2.9   1.3 4.1   5.1 2.7   2.0
Net Error -5.5   -3.8 0.2   2.4 -6.7   -3.7 -1.4   2.2 -7.6   -4.4 -2.0   0.3 -3.7   -5.1 -0.0   0.6
Std Dev 5.2   5.3 1.2   3.4 5.1   3.1 1.8   3.2 7.3   4.5 2.7   1.1 4.1   5.1 2.7   2.0

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 03-18-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-18-19 47   50 34   36 46   42 30   31 56   52 30   32 58   60 35   37
03-17-19 51 51.4 °F 53 24 25.9°F 28 49   50 31   35 47   50 30   29 52   51 29   29
03-16-19 53 ↓ 57.1 °F 54 25 23.1°F 27 51 51.4 °F 51 24 25.9°F 25 48   49 31   34 55   45 32   33
03-15-19 46 48.7 °F 46 27 26.1°F 24 51 57.1 °F 53 24 23.1°F 27 50 51.4 °F 51 25 25.9°F 25 48   50 27   33
03-14-19 38 53.2 °F 39 27 30.8°F 29 43 48.7 °F 45 23 26.1°F 24 48 57.1 °F 51 25 23.1°F 25 52 51.4 °F 51 27 25.9°F 24
03-13-19 57 64.1 °F 59 37 ↑ 34.9°F 45 40 ↓ 53.2 °F 47 26 30.8°F 30 42 48.7 °F 44 22 26.1°F 25 50 57.1 °F 51 26 23.1°F 27
03-12-19 46 48.2 °F 49 46 43.7°F 46 56 64.1 °F 59 37 34.9°F 48 40 53.2 °F 49 26 30.8°F 33 44 48.7 °F 42 22 26.1°F 27
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 2
% Succ 16.7   33.3 50.0   16.7 20.0   20.0 40.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 50.0   75.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 5.3   4.6 2.2   3.7 6.7   3.9 2.6   4.2 7.6   3.9 2.9   1.5 4.1   4.4 2.7   2.2
Net Error -5.3   -3.8 0.2   2.4 -6.7   -3.9 -1.4   2.6 -7.6   -3.9 -2.0   0.5 -3.7   -4.4 -0.0   1.0
Std Dev 5.2   4.6 1.2   3.3 5.1   2.9 1.8   3.1 7.3   3.8 2.7   1.4 4.1   4.4 2.7   2.2

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 03-18-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-18-19 47   50 34   36 46   42 30   31 56   52 30   32 58   60 35   37
03-17-19 51 51.4 °F 52 24 25.9°F 28 49   49 31   33 47   48 30   30 52   58 29   31
03-16-19 54 ↓ 57.1 °F 54 25 23.1°F 27 51 51.4 °F 51 24 25.9°F 25 48   49 31   34 55   45 32   33
03-15-19 46 48.7 °F 47 27 26.1°F 26 51 57.1 °F 51 24 23.1°F 27 50 51.4 °F 51 25 25.9°F 25 48   48 27   32
03-14-19 38 53.2 °F 42 27 30.8°F 29 43 48.7 °F 45 23 26.1°F 24 48 57.1 °F 51 25 23.1°F 27 52 51.4 °F 51 27 25.9°F 24
03-13-19 57 64.1 °F 63 37 ↑ 34.9°F 47 40 ↓ 53.2 °F 48 26 30.8°F 29 42 48.7 °F 45 22 26.1°F 24 48 57.1 °F 48 25 23.1°F 26
03-12-19 46 48.2 °F 50 46 43.7°F 48 56 64.1 °F 62 37 34.9°F 51 40 53.2 °F 53 26 30.8°F 28 44 48.7 °F 42 22 26.1°F 25
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2
% Succ 16.7   66.7 50.0   33.3 20.0   20.0 40.0   40.0 25.0   50.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 5.1   3.3 2.2   4.1 6.7   3.5 2.6   5.0 7.6   2.6 2.9   2.4 4.8   5.4 2.4   2.0
Net Error -5.1   -2.5 0.2   3.4 -6.7   -3.5 -1.4   3.0 -7.6   -2.6 -2.0   -0.5 -4.4   -5.4 -0.4   -0.0
Std Dev 5.2   3.8 1.2   4.2 5.1   2.9 1.8   3.9 7.3   2.5 2.7   2.2 4.8   5.4 2.4   2.0

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 03-17-19 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-17-19 49   28 26   49 47   33 31   46 47   30 31   58 53   32 30   65
03-16-19 54 ↓ 23.1°F 57 25 57.1 °F 28 52   51 25   25 49   50 32   33 49   47 32   32
03-15-19 45 48.7 °F 26 23 26.1°F 51 50 23.1°F 27 25 57.1 °F 51 50   25 24   48 47   32 30   59
03-14-19 39 ↓ 30.8°F 30 27 53.2 °F 45 45 48.7 °F 24 23 26.1°F 51 49 23.1°F 27 24 57.1 °F 50 50   25 24   45
03-13-19 63 ↓ 34.9°F 47 37 ↑ 64.1 °F 48 39 30.8°F 29 26 53.2 °F 45 43 48.7 °F 25 24 26.1°F 48 48 23.1°F 26 25 57.1 °F 50
03-12-19 46 43.7°F 45 45 48.2 °F 59 57 34.9°F 51 37 64.1 °F 52 39 30.8°F 28 26 53.2 °F 41 42 48.7 °F 25 21 26.1°F 51
03-11-19 43 ↓ 36.3°F 32 30 ↑ 48.1 °F 46 44 43.7°F 44 41 48.2 °F 59 56 34.9°F 52 37 64.1 °F 53 41 30.8°F 30 27 53.2 °F 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     33.3     0.0 20.0   40.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 13.3   12.5 18.3   15.2 12.2   9.4 19.3   12.4 15.2   11.9 22.4   13.1 13.9   9.1 21.1   15.1
Net Error 12.1   3.3 -18.3   -3.3 10.8   -1.2 -19.3   1.9 12.4   -1.4 -22.4   -2.1 9.5   -7.2 -21.1   1.5
Std Dev 12.6   12.8 13.7   9.9 11.0   10.0 15.7   10.2 14.2   11.0 20.1   11.7 13.9   9.1 21.1   15.1

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 03-17-19 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-17-19 26   28 47   50 31   33 47   49 31   29 53   53 30   31 58   61
03-16-19 25 23.1°F 28 52 57.1 °F 51 25 ↑   29 49   50 32   35 49   49 32   33 51   50
03-15-19 23 26.1°F 26 50 48.7 °F 50 25 23.1°F 26 50 57.1 °F 51 24   25 47   48 30   30 51   60
03-14-19 27 30.8°F 29 45 53.2 °F 45 23 26.1°F 24 49 48.7 °F 52 24 23.1°F 25 50 57.1 °F 51 24   24 46   47
03-13-19 37 ↑ 34.9°F 45 39 64.1 °F 46 26 30.8°F 30 43 53.2 °F 45 24 26.1°F 25 48 48.7 °F 50 25 23.1°F 27 50 57.1 °F 48
03-12-19 45 ↑ 43.7°F 44 57 48.2 °F 58 37 ↑ 34.9°F 51 39 64.1 °F 52 26 30.8°F 26 42 53.2 °F 38 21 26.1°F 24 51 48.7 °F 49
03-11-19 30 ↑ 36.3°F 32 44 48.1 °F 53 41 43.7°F 50 56 48.2 °F 58 37 34.9°F 51 41 64.1 °F 52 27 30.8°F 31 41 53.2 °F 42
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1
% Succ 33.3   50.0 16.7   16.7 20.0   20.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   50.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   33.3     33.3
Ave Error 3.1   3.6 8.8   8.1 2.9   5.6 10.1   7.9 2.5   6.0 10.5   8.7 3.6   2.1 7.2   6.9
Net Error -1.3   1.5 -5.4   -2.7 -1.3   4.5 -6.9   -2.7 -1.0   3.0 -10.5   -8.0 -2.3   0.7 -5.7   -6.7
Std Dev 1.6   3.7 8.3   6.0 2.1   4.6 7.9   5.5 2.3   5.6 9.3   7.6 3.6   2.1 7.2   6.9

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 03-17-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-17-19 26   29 47   50 31   34 47   50 31   29 53   53 30   31 58   61
03-16-19 25 41.3°F 27 52 57.1 °F 52 25 ↑   26 49   50 32   34 49   49 32   33 51   50
03-15-19 23 35.9°F 26 50 48.7 °F 51 25 41.3°F 26 50 57.1 °F 52 24   24 47   48 30   30 51   60
03-14-19 27 ↑ 30.2°F 31 45 53.2 °F 46 23 35.9°F 24 49 48.7 °F 52 24 41.3°F 26 50 57.1 °F 51 24   24 46   47
03-13-19 37 ↑ 35.0°F 48 39 64.1 °F 49 26 30.2°F 30 43 53.2 °F 46 24 35.9°F 25 48 48.7 °F 50 25 41.3°F 27 50 57.1 °F 48
03-12-19 45 ↑ 53.1°F 43 57 48.2 °F 63 37 ↑ 35.0°F 55 39 64.1 °F 56 26 30.2°F 26 42 53.2 °F 38 21 35.9°F 25 51 48.7 °F 51
03-11-19 30 ↑ 43.8°F 34 44 48.1 °F 51 41 53.1°F 47 56 48.2 °F 60 37 35.0°F 48 41 64.1 °F 49 27 30.2°F 31 41 53.2 °F 42
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 16.7   0.0 20.0   20.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   25.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 9.4   9.7 8.8   7.9 9.5   10.7 10.1   7.1 8.9   10.9 10.5   9.4 11.5   8.7 7.2   7.5
Net Error -8.7   -5.1 -5.4   -1.2 -8.7   -2.7 -6.9   -1.1 -7.9   -4.4 -10.5   -8.8 -11.5   -8.1 -5.7   -6.0
Std Dev 6.4   5.8 8.3   5.8 7.3   8.5 7.9   4.9 8.8   9.7 9.3   8.3 11.5   8.7 7.2   7.5

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.