Current WXSIM Forecast

Tuesday, 17-May-2022 08:00 am

Today

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 79°
Tonight

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 62°
Wednesday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 78°
Wednesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 61°
Thursday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 81°
Thursday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 60°
Friday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 67°
Friday
night
Overcast
Overcast
Low: 47°
Saturday

Rain likely
Rain likely
High: 49°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 17-May-2022 9:01am CDT

Today

Today: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 81 °F
Tonight

Tonight: Showers And Thunderstorms
Showers And TStorms

Lo 61 °F ↑
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 80 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 58 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 88 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 55 °F
Friday

Friday: Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny

Hi 67 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers

Lo 44 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny

Hi 63 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-17-22 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-17-22 61   64 79   79 61   63 79   79 57   64 87   82 55   59 67   66
05-16-22 49 ↑ 68.0°F 49 81 85.1 °F 81 58 ↑   58 80   77 60   61 79   78 58   59 86   84
05-15-22 56 ↑ 53.1°F 54 70 76.6 °F 66 50 ↑ 68.0°F 51 80 85.1 °F 78 59   59 78   71 61   63 78   77
05-14-22 54 ↑ 56.9°F 57 84 90.6 °F 85 56 ↑ 53.1°F 56 73 76.6 °F 68 51 68.0°F 54 81 85.1 °F 78 58   59 76   71
05-13-22 59 56.9°F 62 81 85.2 °F 82 55 56.9°F 58 83 90.6 °F 84 55 53.1°F 58 78 76.6 °F 72 53 68.0°F 55 81 85.1 °F 82
05-12-22 72 61.9°F 92 93 95.7 °F 69 60 ↑ 56.9°F 91 81 85.2 °F 61 56 56.9°F 84 83 90.6 °F 59 56 53.1°F 86 78 76.6 °F 58
05-11-22 64 94.7 °F 65 93 77.3°F 93 71 61.9°F 72 94 95.7 °F 94 62 56.9°F 64 80 85.2 °F 86 57 56.9°F 59 79 90.6 °F 88
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
% Succ     33.3     0.0 20.0   20.0 20.0   20.0 50.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 11.3   14.2 6.7   11.0 7.0   13.0 4.4   9.6 6.2   13.3 4.6   11.0 6.0   16.0 5.7   8.1
Net Error -6.3   -2.1 -1.4   -5.8 -1.0   6.2 -4.4   -9.6 -2.7   6.3 -3.9   -10.6 -4.0   7.3 -4.8   -8.1
Std Dev 8.3   12.5 3.5   9.2 7.2   11.0 3.2   6.4 7.6   11.5 4.0   9.7 6.0   16.0 5.7   8.1

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-17-22 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-17-22 60 ↑   80 81   65 61 ↑   80 80   64 58   82 88   59 55   66 67   48
05-16-22 49 ↑ 65.1°F 81 82 85.1 °F 59 61   76 79   61 61   78 79   59 58   84 86   63
05-15-22 56 49.9°F 67 70 76.6 °F 50 50 65.1°F 78 80 85.1 °F 58 58   72 78   62 60   77 78   59
05-14-22 54 56.9°F 84 85 90.6 °F 55 56 ↑ 49.9°F 68 70 76.6 °F 53 50 65.1°F 78 81 85.1 °F 58 59   71 78   61
05-13-22 59 ↑ 54.9°F 80 81 85.2 °F 55 52 56.9°F 83 84 90.6 °F 57 56 49.9°F 72 75 76.6 °F 54 52 65.1°F 82 80 85.1 °F 61
05-12-22 72 ↑ 58.5°F 92 94 95.7 °F 69 60 ↑ 54.9°F 91 82 85.2 °F 61 55 56.9°F 84 84 90.6 °F 59 57 49.9°F 86 78 76.6 °F 58
05-11-22 65 ↑ 94.7 °F 93 93 74.3°F 69 71 ↑ 58.5°F 92 94 95.7 °F 63 61 54.9°F 85 81 85.2 °F 59 56 56.9°F 88 81 90.6 °F 58
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ     16.7 16.7   0.0     0.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 12.1   20.1 6.7   25.1 8.7   25.3 4.6   28.2 7.3   23.1 4.1   26.9 7.0   28.0 5.4   25.1
Net Error -4.2   19.5 -0.4   -25.1 0.7   25.3 -4.6   -28.2 -1.2   23.1 -4.1   -26.9 -2.3   28.0 -4.4   -25.1
Std Dev 7.6   10.7 3.8   11.3 6.6   17.3 3.2   18.1 7.4   20.6 3.6   23.3 7.0   28.0 5.4   25.1

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-17-22 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-17-22 81   79 61 ↑   62 80   78 58   61 88   81 55   60 67   67 44   47
05-16-22 82 85.1 °F 79 61 65.1°F 61 79   78 61   61 79   73 58   58 86   80 55   65
05-15-22 70 76.6 °F 71 50 49.1°F 50 80 85.1 °F 77 58 65.1°F 57 78   72 60   61 78   74 60   58
05-14-22 85 90.6 °F 85 56 ↑ 55.9°F 57 70 76.6 °F 67 50 49.1°F 53 81 85.1 °F 78 59 65.1°F 60 78   73 59   64
05-13-22 81 85.2 °F 76 52 54.9°F 54 84 90.6 °F 83 56 55.9°F 55 75 76.6 °F 73 52 49.1°F 52 80 85.1 °F 80 58 65.1°F 58
05-12-22 94 95.7 °F 93 60 ↑ 57.0°F 66 82 ↓ 85.2 °F 83 55 54.9°F 61 84 90.6 °F 86 57 55.9°F 55 78 76.6 °F 77 53 49.1°F 53
05-11-22 93 94.7 °F 92 71 ↑ 73.0°F 69 94 95.7 °F 91 61 57.0°F 61 81 85.2 °F 84 56 54.9°F 59 81 90.6 °F 86 54 55.9°F 58
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 3 3 1 0 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0
% Succ 33.3   0.0 50.0   50.0 20.0   0.0 60.0   20.0 25.0   25.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 3.8   5.3 2.2   3.3 4.6   6.4 2.4   4.6 4.1   4.1 2.8   3.3 5.4   3.4 4.3   4.4
Net Error -3.8   -5.3 -0.8   0.3 -4.6   -6.4 -0.4   1.0 -4.1   -4.1 -0.2   0.3 -4.4   -3.1 -1.7   -0.4
Std Dev 2.3   2.9 1.6   3.2 3.2   4.4 2.9   3.7 3.6   3.9 2.9   3.0 5.4   3.4 4.3   4.4

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 05-16-22 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-22 <95   83 70   62 <95   83 60   63 80   74 55   59 80   81 <55   65
05-15-22 70 76.6 °F 75 50 49.1°F 49 80   79 58   57 78   72 60   61 78   75 60   58
05-14-22 85 90.6 °F 88 56 ↑ 55.9°F 58 70 76.6 °F 68 50 49.1°F 52 81   78 59   60 78   73 59   64
05-13-22 81 85.2 °F 82 52 54.9°F 57 84 90.6 °F 85 56 55.9°F 57 75 76.6 °F 73 52 49.1°F 52 80   80 58   58
05-12-22 94 95.7 °F 91 60 ↑ 57.0°F 65 82 ↓ 85.2 °F 82 55 54.9°F 60 84 90.6 °F 83 57 55.9°F 54 78 76.6 °F 76 53 49.1°F 53
05-11-22 93 94.7 °F 92 71 ↑ 73.0°F 69 94 95.7 °F 91 61 57.0°F 61 81 85.2 °F 84 56 54.9°F 59 81 90.6 °F 86 54 55.9°F 58
05-10-22 82 89.4 °F 88 62 ↑ 67.6°F 68 93 94.7 °F 92 71 73.0°F 70 91 95.7 °F 91 61 57.0°F 65 79 85.2 °F 85 57 54.9°F 61
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 3 2 2 0 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 0
% Succ 33.3   33.3 50.0   33.3 40.0   0.0 80.0   20.0 25.0   25.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   66.7 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 4.5   2.7 2.4   2.8 4.0   5.0 1.4   3.2 4.3   4.3 2.3   4.2 5.7   1.8 2.6   4.0
Net Error -4.5   -2.7 -1.1   1.4 -4.0   -5.0 0.6   2.0 -4.3   -4.3 2.3   3.3 -4.8   -1.8 1.4   4.0
Std Dev 2.6   1.5 1.5   2.7 3.0   3.6 1.2   2.4 3.9   3.7 2.0   3.7 5.7   1.8 2.6   4.0

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-16-22 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-22 82   83 61   61 79   75 61   62 79   74 58   57 86   82 55   63
05-15-22 73 ↓ 76.6 °F 76 49 49.1°F 51 81   79 58   57 80   77 60   61 79   77 58   56
05-14-22 87 ↓ 90.6 °F 90 56 ↑ 55.9°F 60 70 76.6 °F 69 50 49.1°F 53 80   77 59   59 78   73 61   63
05-13-22 82 85.2 °F 84 54 54.9°F 58 84 90.6 °F 85 56 55.9°F 56 75 76.6 °F 69 52 49.1°F 54 80   80 58   62
05-12-22 94 95.7 °F 93 60 ↑ 57.0°F 66 82 ↓ 85.2 °F 83 55 54.9°F 61 84 90.6 °F 82 57 55.9°F 56 78 76.6 °F 75 53 49.1°F 54
05-11-22 93 94.7 °F 92 71 ↑ 73.0°F 69 94 95.7 °F 91 61 57.0°F 61 81 85.2 °F 84 56 54.9°F 59 81 90.6 °F 86 54 55.9°F 58
05-10-22 82 89.4 °F 89 62 ↑ 67.6°F 66 93 94.7 °F 90 71 73.0°F 69 93 95.7 °F 91 61 57.0°F 65 79 85.2 °F 84 57 54.9°F 62
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 4 2 2 0 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 0
% Succ 33.3   66.7 66.7   33.3 40.0   0.0 80.0   20.0 25.0   25.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   66.7 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 3.5   1.4 2.0   4.0 4.0   5.0 1.4   3.6 3.8   5.5 2.3   4.3 5.7   2.5 2.6   4.7
Net Error -3.5   -1.4 -0.9   2.1 -4.0   -5.0 0.6   2.0 -3.8   -5.5 2.3   4.3 -4.8   -2.5 1.4   4.7
Std Dev 1.8   1.1 1.5   2.8 3.0   3.6 1.2   3.0 3.4   4.9 2.0   3.7 5.7   2.5 2.6   4.7

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-16-22 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-22 82   62 61   76 79   62 61   75 79   58 57   82 87   63 55   69
05-15-22 74 ↓ 76.6 °F 52 49 ↑ 49.1°F 79 81   58 58   74 80   61 60   76 79   55 58   82
05-14-22 88 ↓ 90.6 °F 61 56 ↑ 55.9°F 68 70 76.6 °F 54 50 49.1°F 78 80   59 59   73 78   63 61   73
05-13-22 82 85.2 °F 59 54 ↑ 54.9°F 86 84 90.6 °F 56 56 55.9°F 69 73 76.6 °F 54 51 49.1°F 80 81   61 58   76
05-12-22 94 95.7 °F 67 59 ↑ 57.0°F 82 81 85.2 °F 60 55 54.9°F 82 83 90.6 °F 57 55 55.9°F 75 78 76.6 °F 54 53 49.1°F 78
05-11-22 93 94.7 °F 92 71 73.0°F 69 93 95.7 °F 91 60 57.0°F 61 81 85.2 °F 84 56 54.9°F 59 83 90.6 °F 86 56 55.9°F 58
05-10-22 84 ↓ 89.4 °F 69 64 67.6°F 90 93 94.7 °F 70 71 73.0°F 91 94 95.7 °F 65 62 57.0°F 83 80 85.2 °F 62 57 54.9°F 86
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 5 0 1 0 4 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 33.3   0.0 83.3   0.0 20.0   0.0 80.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 75.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 2.9   22.0 1.5   20.8 4.4   22.4 1.2   18.2 4.3   22.0 2.2   20.0 4.7   16.8 2.0   20.7
Net Error -2.9   -22.0 -0.7   19.4 -4.4   -22.4 0.4   18.2 -4.3   -22.0 1.8   20.0 -3.8   -16.8 2.0   20.7
Std Dev 1.4   12.8 1.1   12.9 3.1   15.2 1.1   13.3 3.7   19.1 1.9   18.2 4.7   16.8 2.0   20.7

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-16-22 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-22 61   63 79   78 61   63 79   73 57   58 87   81 55   63 67   69
05-15-22 49 ↑ 49.1°F 52 81 76.6 °F 79 58 ↑   59 80   78 60   62 79   77 58   60 86   84
05-14-22 56 ↑ 55.9°F 60 70 90.6 °F 69 50 ↑ 49.1°F 52 80 76.6 °F 77 59   57 78   69 61   62 78   73
05-13-22 54 ↑ 54.9°F 60 84 85.2 °F 87 56 ↑ 55.9°F 58 73 90.6 °F 71 51 49.1°F 56 81 76.6 °F 79 58   60 76   70
05-12-22 59 ↑ 57.0°F 64 81 95.7 °F 80 55 54.9°F 59 83 85.2 °F 81 55 55.9°F 56 78 90.6 °F 70 53 49.1°F 52 81 76.6 °F 79
05-11-22 71 73.0°F 92 93 94.7 °F 69 60 ↑ 57.0°F 91 81 95.7 °F 61 56 54.9°F 84 83 85.2 °F 59 56 55.9°F 86 78 90.6 °F 58
05-10-22 64 89.4 °F 69 93 67.6°F 91 71 73.0°F 69 94 94.7 °F 92 62 57.0°F 64 80 95.7 °F 84 57 54.9°F 60 79 85.2 °F 88
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 0 2 1 4 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 83.3   0.0 33.3   16.7 80.0   0.0 20.0   20.0 75.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 5.1   9.8 11.3   15.1 1.2   9.4 7.7   12.3 2.2   10.8 8.7   15.2 2.0   12.7 7.7   12.6
Net Error -4.4   3.0 -1.4   -5.9 0.4   7.8 -6.4   -12.2 1.8   10.8 -6.5   -14.0 2.0   12.7 -4.8   -9.1
Std Dev 4.3   6.9 8.8   11.0 1.1   7.8 7.3   10.6 1.9   9.5 7.9   14.7 2.0   12.7 7.7   12.6

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 05-16-22 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-22 61   64 79   79 61   64 79   76 57   60 87   81 55   63 67   69
05-15-22 49 ↑ 70.9°F 52 81 76.6 °F 82 58 ↑   61 80   80 60   63 79   78 58   61 86   85
05-14-22 56 ↑ 58.8°F 58 70 90.6 °F 68 50 ↑ 70.9°F 52 80 76.6 °F 77 59   56 78   69 61   61 78   74
05-13-22 54 ↑ 61.2°F 56 84 85.2 °F 86 56 ↑ 58.8°F 57 73 90.6 °F 68 51 70.9°F 55 81 76.6 °F 79 58   59 76   69
05-12-22 59 ↑ 61.5°F 62 81 95.7 °F 82 55 61.2°F 59 83 85.2 °F 82 55 58.8°F 56 78 90.6 °F 69 53 70.9°F 52 81 76.6 °F 79
05-11-22 71 64.3°F 92 93 94.7 °F 69 60 ↑ 61.5°F 91 81 95.7 °F 61 56 61.2°F 84 83 85.2 °F 59 56 58.8°F 86 78 90.6 °F 58
05-10-22 64 89.4 °F 70 93 80.5°F 93 71 64.3°F 69 94 94.7 °F 92 62 61.5°F 64 80 95.7 °F 84 57 61.2°F 60 79 85.2 °F 89
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     33.3 33.3   16.7 20.0   20.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 11.1   12.1 9.2   13.5 7.6   11.4 7.7   12.7 7.4   11.0 8.7   15.5 8.3   15.8 7.7   12.9
Net Error -8.9   -2.7 -3.6   -7.2 -4.9   2.3 -6.4   -12.6 -7.1   1.7 -6.5   -14.3 -8.3   2.4 -4.8   -8.8
Std Dev 8.3   11.1 8.0   10.3 8.0   9.9 7.3   11.5 8.9   9.8 7.9   14.9 8.3   15.8 7.7   12.9

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.