Current WXSIM Forecast

Wednesday, 20-Oct-2021 02:00 pm

This
afternoon
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 55°
Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 38°
Thursday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 60°
Thursday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 33°
Friday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 62°
Friday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 35°
Saturday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
High: 59°
Saturday
night
Chance rain
Chance rain
Low: 50°
Sunday

Overcast
Overcast
High: 64°

Current NWS Forecast

Wed, 20-Oct-2021 11:58am CDT

Rest Of
Today
Partly Sunny
Partly Sunny
Hi ≈60°F
Tonight

Variable Clouds
Variable Clouds
Lo ≈40°F
Thursday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Hi <65°F
Thursday
Night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Lo >35°F
Friday

Sunny
Sunny
Hi <65°F
Friday
Night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Lo ≈40°F
Saturday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Hi ≈65°F
Saturday
Night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Lo >45°F
Sunday

Chance rain
Chance rain
Hi >65°F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-20-21 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-21 <55   58 60   69 40   49 >55   66 >35   36 65   65 40   37 65   65
10-19-21 55 64.6°F 53 79 ↓ 78.4 °F 80 50 ↑   52 60   68 40   46 59   66 40   39 61   69
10-18-21 75 59.5°F 47 42 ↑ 77.3 °F 76 76 64.6°F 51 51 78.4 °F 81 76   48 50   66 62   43 41   64
10-17-21 >35 57.1°F 39 75 77.3 °F 72 45 59.5°F 43 75 77.3 °F 76 <55 64.6°F 50 75 78.4 °F 81 45   51 <65   66
10-16-21 35 ↑ 44.4°F 38 66 69.0 °F 64 41 57.1°F 37 76 77.3 °F 73 47 59.5°F 43 75 77.3 °F 74 53 64.6°F 50 76 78.4 °F 81
10-15-21 42 ↑ 43.6°F 45 60 64.0 °F 59 38 44.4°F 37 65 69.0 °F 65 41 57.1°F 40 75 77.3 °F 75 49 59.5°F 43 73 77.3 °F 76
10-14-21 40 51.5°F 41 <65 66.1 °F 68 <45 43.6°F 45 >55 64.0 °F 60 >35 44.4°F 37 65 69.0 °F 66 <45 57.1°F 41 <75 77.3 °F 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
% Succ 16.7   16.7 16.7   50.0     20.0 20.0   20.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     66.7
Ave Error 17.5   10.1 18.6   3.4 18.4   11.8 19.8   3.2 34.4   13.9 3.0   2.8 26.4   15.7 28.0   1.7
Net Error -12.3   -9.6 -18.4   -2.2 -13.8   -11.2 -19.8   -2.2 -34.4   -13.9 -3.0   -1.5 -26.4   -15.7 -28.0   0.0
Std Dev 19.4   6.6 16.7   2.2 12.2   8.6 17.3   2.3 33.4   12.0 2.6   2.4 26.4   15.7 28.0   1.7

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-20-21 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-21 55 ↑   70 60 ↓   49 41   66 62   37 39   65 64   37 40   66 66   55
10-19-21 55 62.1°F 81 79 ↓ 78.4 °F 49 50 ↑   68 60   46 40   66 59   38 40   69 61   44
10-18-21 75 57.9°F 77 42 ↑ 77.3 °F 53 76 62.1°F 82 51 78.4 °F 49 76   67 50   44 62   65 41   41
10-17-21 38 ↑ 54.1°F 72 75 ↓ 77.3 °F 45 47 ↑ 57.9°F 75 75 77.3 °F 49 54 62.1°F 79 76 78.4 °F 53 48   67 61   44
10-16-21 35 ↑ 41.6°F 65 67 69.0 °F 39 39 ↑ 54.1°F 73 76 77.3 °F 43 47 57.9°F 74 75 77.3 °F 48 53 62.1°F 79 75 78.4 °F 48
10-15-21 42 ↑ 39.7°F 62 61 64.0 °F 40 36 ↑ 41.6°F 65 66 69.0 °F 40 42 54.1°F 73 75 77.3 °F 43 49 57.9°F 75 75 77.3 °F 48
10-14-21   66 65 66.1 °F 44 <45 39.7°F 60 >55 64.0 °F 37 >35 41.6°F 66 65 69.0 °F 40 <45 54.1°F 76 75 77.3 °F 45
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ     0.0 50.0   0.0     0.0 20.0   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 9.8   20.3 7.4   27.0 17.0   19.9 19.6   29.6 18.2   19.1 2.8   29.5 24.0   18.6 2.7   30.7
Net Error -2.1   20.3 -7.2   -27.0 -11.5   19.9 -19.6   -29.6 -18.2   19.1 -2.8   -29.5 -24.0   18.6 -2.7   -30.7
Std Dev 6.4   9.3 12.6   11.5 11.2   12.7 17.1   18.8 16.5   16.6 2.4   25.6 24.0   18.6 2.7   30.7

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-20-21 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-21 60   62 40   42 <65   63 >35   36 <65   66 40   36 65   64 >45   51
10-19-21 55 78.4 °F 81 79 ↓ 54.9°F 50 50 ↑   67 60   47 40   66 59   40 40   72 61   41
10-18-21 75 77.3 °F 79 <55 57.7°F 55 >75 78.4 °F 82 >45 54.9°F 52 >55   67 >35   45 >55   66 >35   40
10-16-21 >65 77.3 °F 65 >35 51.2°F 39 75 77.3 °F 73 45 57.7°F 43 75 78.4 °F 74 <55 54.9°F 49 75   79 >45   48
10-15-21 61 64.0 °F 59 36 ↑ 35.1°F 39 66 ↓ 77.3 °F 64 42 51.2°F 39 75 77.3 °F 73 49 57.7°F 43 75 78.4 °F 77 53 54.9°F 49
10-14-21 65 66.1 °F 65 <45 41.1°F 42 >55 64.0 °F 59 >35 35.1°F 36 65 77.3 °F 63 <45 51.2°F 38 75 77.3 °F 75 >45 57.7°F 44
10-13-21 65 66.6 °F 67 <45 38.5°F 41 <65 66.1 °F 67 <45 41.1°F 42 >55 64.0 °F 56 >35 35.1°F 36 >65 77.3 °F 63 <45 51.2°F 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
% Succ 33.3   50.0 16.7   16.7     20.0     40.0     0.0     25.0     33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 18.1   3.9 35.6   4.5 44.4   5.4 30.6   6.3 20.5   7.8 37.5   8.7 27.7   6.0 36.9   10.3
Net Error -18.1   -2.3 -27.3   -2.1 -44.4   -3.6 -30.6   -5.6 -20.5   -7.8 -37.5   -8.2 -27.7   -6.0 -36.9   -10.3
Std Dev 27.8   4.1 23.7   4.0 39.9   5.0 25.5   6.3 19.7   6.9 33.6   7.6 27.7   6.0 36.9   10.3

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 10-20-21 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-21 60   56 40   41 <65   61 >35   34 <65   65 40   35 65   64 >45   51
10-19-21 55 78.4 °F 78 79 ↓ 53.6°F 51 50 ↑   66 60   47 40   66 59   39 40   71 61   41
10-18-21 75 77.3 °F 75 <55 57.7°F 51 >75 78.4 °F 80 >45 53.6°F 48 >55   64 >35   42 >55   64 >35   39
10-17-21 75 ↓ 77.3 °F 74 47 ↑ 51.2°F 46 75 77.3 °F 76 54 57.7°F 52 76 78.4 °F 79 48 53.6°F 52 61   67 38   44
10-16-21 67 69.0 °F 65 37 ↑ 37.9°F 38 76 77.3 °F 73 47 51.2°F 44 75 77.3 °F 75 53 57.7°F 50 75 78.4 °F 79 48 53.6°F 48
10-15-21 61 64.0 °F 59 36 ↑ 35.1°F 36 66 ↓ 69.0 °F 62 42 37.9°F 38 75 77.3 °F 74 49 51.2°F 42 75 77.3 °F 76 53 57.7°F 48
10-14-21 65 66.1 °F 65 <45 41.0°F 41 >55 64.0 °F 58 >35 35.1°F 37 65 69.0 °F 63 <45 37.9°F 38 75 77.3 °F 75 >45 51.2°F 44
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 2 3 1 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0
% Succ 33.3   33.3 33.3   50.0 20.0   40.0     40.0     25.0     50.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 5.7   2.7 21.7   2.6 29.8   4.0 20.1   4.1 2.8   3.1 12.6   4.7 2.7   1.4 20.5   7.5
Net Error -5.7   -2.7 -12.9   -2.3 -29.8   -3.4 -18.5   -3.3 -2.8   -2.8 -12.6   -4.6 -2.7   -1.0 -20.5   -7.5
Std Dev 8.1   1.8 22.2   2.6 33.8   3.0 22.2   3.1 2.4   2.9 11.5   4.3 2.7   1.4 20.5   7.5

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-20-21 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-21 60   55 40   38 <65   60 >35   33 <65   62 40   35 65   59 >45   50
10-19-21 >75 78.4 °F 77 50 53.6°F 52 >55   66 40   47 >55   65 >35   39 <65   70 40   39
10-18-21 75 77.3 °F 76 <55 57.7°F 49 >75 78.4 °F 78 >45 53.6°F 48 >55   63 >35   39 >55   61 >35   36
10-17-21 75 77.3 °F 76 42 ↑ 51.2°F 46 76 77.3 °F 77 51 57.7°F 52 76 78.4 °F 80 50 53.6°F 52 62   67 41   42
10-16-21 67 69.0 °F 67 37 ↑ 37.9°F 39 75 77.3 °F 73 46 51.2°F 45 75 77.3 °F 75 53 57.7°F 49 76 78.4 °F 79 47 53.6°F 50
10-15-21 61 64.0 °F 63 36 ↑ 35.1°F 37 66 ↓ 69.0 °F 64 42 37.9°F 39 75 77.3 °F 74 49 51.2°F 42 75 77.3 °F 76 53 57.7°F 49
10-14-21 65 66.1 °F 65 <45 41.0°F 41 >55 64.0 °F 59 35 35.1°F 38 65 69.0 °F 63 <45 37.9°F 39 <75 77.3 °F 75 >45 51.2°F 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 6 2 4 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0
% Succ 33.3   100.0 33.3   66.7 20.0   40.0 20.0   20.0     25.0     50.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 14.9   1.4 18.9   3.1 29.8   3.0 13.9   4.3 2.8   3.3 12.1   5.2 27.3   1.4 20.8   6.8
Net Error -14.9   -1.4 -18.6   -2.1 -29.8   -3.0 -12.3   -2.7 -2.8   -2.5 -12.1   -4.6 -27.3   -1.0 -20.8   -6.8
Std Dev 28.5   0.6 21.7   3.0 33.8   2.6 20.4   3.0 2.4   3.0 11.3   4.8 27.3   1.4 20.8   6.8

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-19-21 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-21   50 <55   66 60   47 40   65 >55   40 >35   71 65   39 40   66
10-18-21   50 <55 57.7°F 79 >75   50 >45   66 >55   38 >35   59 >55   35 >35   64
10-17-21 77 77.3 °F 49 41 ↑ 51.2°F 79 76 77.3 °F 53 51 57.7°F 80 77   53 50   67 62   42 41   62
10-16-21 67 69.0 °F 40 38 37.9°F 73 75 77.3 °F 45 46 51.2°F 75 75 77.3 °F 50 53 57.7°F 79 76   50 47   67
10-15-21 61 64.0 °F 37 36 ↑ 35.1°F 64 66 69.0 °F 39 41 37.9°F 74 76 77.3 °F 43 47 51.2°F 75 75 77.3 °F 46 53 57.7°F 79
10-14-21   42 <45 41.0°F 59 >55 64.0 °F 37 35 35.1°F 63 65 69.0 °F 39 <45 37.9°F 75 <75 77.3 °F 43 >45 51.2°F 79
10-13-21   41 40 38.5°F 67 <65 66.1 °F 43 <45 41.0°F 57 >55 64.0 °F 36 >35 35.1°F 63 65 69.0 °F 38 <45 37.9°F 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ 66.7   0.0 50.0   0.0 20.0   0.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 1.8   28.1 18.6   26.6 27.3   27.3 11.2   25.2 17.9   29.9 20.5   27.5 27.9   32.2 31.3   28.1
Net Error -1.8   -28.1 -17.7   26.6 -27.3   -27.3 -10.0   25.2 -17.9   -29.9 -20.5   27.5 -27.9   -32.2 -31.3   28.1
Std Dev 1.7   22.9 22.7   12.2 26.0   17.5 8.7   16.7 17.4   25.9 19.4   24.0 27.9   32.2 31.3   28.1

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-19-21 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-21 <55   52 60   67 40   47 >55   66 >35   39 65   68 40   41 65   66
10-18-21 55 57.7°F 51 79 ↓ 77.3 °F 77 50 ↑   47 60   64 40   42 59   65 40   39 61   67
10-17-21 41 ↑ 51.2°F 48 76 77.3 °F 77 51 ↑ 57.7°F 51 77 77.3 °F 78 50   54 62   67 41   42 60   62
10-16-21 38 ↑ 37.9°F 39 75 69.0 °F 72 46 51.2°F 44 75 77.3 °F 75 53 57.7°F 49 76 77.3 °F 78 47   49 63   67
10-15-21 36 ↑ 35.1°F 37 66 64.0 °F 64 41 37.9°F 39 76 69.0 °F 74 47 51.2°F 43 75 77.3 °F 73 53 57.7°F 48 76 77.3 °F 79
10-14-21 42 ↑ 41.0°F 42 60 66.1 °F 59 38 35.1°F 36 65 64.0 °F 64 41 37.9°F 39 75 69.0 °F 75 49 51.2°F 43 73 77.3 °F 78
10-13-21 40 38.5°F 43 <65 66.6 °F 69 <45 41.0°F 46 >55 66.1 °F 59 >35 35.1°F 38 65 64.0 °F 66 <45 37.9°F 40 <75 69.0 °F 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 3 3 3 0 2 2 2 0 1 2 2 0 0 1 2
% Succ 66.7   50.0 50.0   50.0     40.0 40.0   40.0     25.0 50.0   50.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 2.7   3.1 14.0   2.2 11.8   4.2 15.3   3.0 11.8   5.2 2.7   3.3 14.9   6.7 24.9   3.1
Net Error -1.6   -0.2 -10.7   -0.4 -9.4   -1.4 -12.1   -0.7 -10.2   -3.2 0.9   1.1 -14.9   -5.3 -24.9   3.1
Std Dev 3.6   2.3 11.3   2.6 9.2   3.5 13.7   2.4 10.8   4.8 2.4   3.1 14.9   6.7 24.9   3.1

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 10-19-21 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-21 <55   54 60   68 40   46 >55   65 >35   38 65   67 40   40 65   65
10-18-21 50 66.5°F 52 >75 77.3 °F 78 >45   49 >55   65 >35   43 >55   65 >35   39 60   68
10-17-21 41 ↑ 63.1°F 47 76 77.3 °F 75 51 ↑ 66.5°F 50 77 77.3 °F 77 50   53 62   65 41   41 60   61
10-16-21 >35 59.9°F 41 75 69.0 °F 74 45 63.1°F 43 75 77.3 °F 75 <55 66.5°F 50 75 77.3 °F 79 45   49 <65   67
10-15-21 35 44.7°F 36 65 64.0 °F 64 <45 59.9°F 39 75 69.0 °F 73 45 63.1°F 43 75 77.3 °F 73 <55 66.5°F 48 75 77.3 °F 79
10-14-21 42 ↑ 44.1°F 44 60 66.1 °F 59 38 44.7°F 37 65 64.0 °F 64 41 59.9°F 39 75 69.0 °F 75 49 63.1°F 43 73 77.3 °F 77
10-13-21 40 53.9°F 41 <65 66.6 °F 68 <45 44.1°F 46 >55 66.1 °F 59 >35 44.7°F 35 65 64.0 °F 63 <45 59.9°F 38 <75 69.0 °F 75
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2
% Succ     16.7 33.3   50.0     20.0 40.0   40.0     0.0 25.0   50.0     0.0     66.7
Ave Error 20.7   11.9 26.4   2.8 28.9   13.4 15.1   2.7 37.1   16.8 2.9   3.3 46.8   20.2 25.2   2.7
Net Error -20.7   -11.9 -24.1   -0.4 -28.9   -12.7 -12.3   -1.1 -37.1   -16.8 0.6   0.6 -46.8   -20.2 -25.2   2.5
Std Dev 20.2   7.8 30.0   2.7 24.2   9.7 13.6   2.1 35.3   14.6 2.5   2.9 46.8   20.2 25.2   2.7

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.