Current WXSIM Forecast

Tuesday, 27-Jul-2021 08:00 pm

Tonight

Clear
Clear
Low: 78°
Wednesday

Mostly Cloudy
Hot!
Mostly Cloudy
Hot!
High: 101°
Wednesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 81°
Thursday

Mostly Cloudy
Hot!
Mostly Cloudy
Hot!
High: 101°
Thursday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 71°
Friday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 88°
Friday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 69°
Saturday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 84°
Saturday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 66°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 27-Jul-2021 8:28pm CDT

Rest Of
Tonight
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Lo <75°F
Wednesday

Sunny
Sunny
Hi >95°F
Wednesday
Night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Lo ≈75°F
Thursday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Hi ≈95°F
Thursday
Night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Lo ≈70°F
Friday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Hi >85°F
Friday
Night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Lo >65°F
Saturday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Hi ≈85°F
Saturday
Night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Lo ≈65°F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 >65   73 95   96 <75   75 >95   99 75   77 95   98 70   69 >85   90
07-26-21 65 75.3°F 68 <95 91.5 °F 92 >65   72 >95   96 <75   74 >95   98 75   78 95   97
07-25-21 96 70.1°F 73 69 ↑ 88.4 °F 95 97 75.3°F 73 69 91.5 °F 93 95   72 71   96 100   74 74   99
07-24-21 75 73.6°F 77 96 91.7 °F 98 70 ↑ 70.1°F 73 96 88.4 °F 97 71 75.3°F 74 95 91.5 °F 97 72   72 99   100
07-23-21 72 ↑ 79.2°F 73 98 ↓ 95.0 °F 94 76 73.6°F 75 98 91.7 °F 97 72 70.1°F 74 97 88.4 °F 95 71 75.3°F 72 96 91.5 °F 91
07-22-21 65 76.4°F 72 <95 89.8 °F 90 <75 79.2°F 72 >95 95.0 °F 94 75 73.6°F 76 >95 91.7 °F 99 <75 70.1°F 73 95 88.4 °F 95
07-21-21 65 73.6°F 69 >85 87.4 °F 90 >65 76.4°F 68 <95 89.8 °F 90 <75 79.2°F 70 >95 95.0 °F 96 75 73.6°F 76 >95 91.7 °F 103
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
% Succ 16.7   0.0     50.0 20.0   20.0     60.0 50.0   25.0     25.0 33.3   0.0     33.3
Ave Error 10.8   4.8 49.2   2.9 36.0   4.4 44.2   3.3 21.7   4.2 49.7   5.1 25.3   2.9 34.3   6.1
Net Error -1.7   -2.7 -46.8   2.5 -26.3   -2.7 -38.7   2.9 -20.1   -1.1 -43.7   5.1 -24.3   0.7 -26.9   5.8
Std Dev 8.6   2.5 42.6   2.9 32.3   3.3 37.9   3.4 20.7   3.9 48.8   4.4 25.3   2.9 34.3   6.1

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 69   97 97   75 75   101 100   77 76   98 98   69 70   90 88   69
07-26-21   92 <95 91.5 °F 73 >65   97 95   75 <75   99 >95   78 75   97 95   68
07-25-21 70 70.0°F 93 94 88.4 °F 71 66 73.1°F 93 95 91.5 °F 71 71   97 100   73 73   99 103   76
07-24-21 75 70.8°F 76 96 91.7 °F 98 69 70.0°F 74 97 88.4 °F 96 69 73.1°F 71 95 91.5 °F 95 71   73 100   101
07-23-21 72 ↑ 76.9°F 93 98 95.0 °F 77 76 70.8°F 99 97 91.7 °F 75 71 70.0°F 96 97 88.4 °F 72 72 73.1°F 91 95 91.5 °F 72
07-22-21   90 90 89.8 °F 70 70 76.9°F 94 95 95.0 °F 75 75 70.8°F 98 >95 91.7 °F 73 <75 70.0°F 95 95 88.4 °F 71
07-21-21   89 >85 87.4 °F 69 65 73.2°F 92 <95 89.8 °F 71 <75 76.9°F 96 >95 95.0 °F 74 75 70.8°F 101 95 91.7 °F 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   0.0 16.7   0.0 20.0   0.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.0   14.8 32.0   16.4 5.7   17.6 21.4   16.7 21.6   18.6 49.7   14.9 25.1   24.4 4.5   17.5
Net Error -0.2   14.8 -27.6   -14.3 -3.6   17.6 -14.5   -13.7 -19.0   17.6 -43.7   -13.2 -22.3   24.4 4.5   -17.5
Std Dev 3.0   13.0 36.2   8.1 4.2   13.6 18.3   11.5 20.6   18.1 48.8   14.1 25.1   24.4 4.5   17.5

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 95   95 <75   75 >95   98 75   79 95   100 >65   70 85   91 >65   70
07-26-21 <95 91.5 °F 92 >65 72.1°F 72 95   97 <75   75 >95   100 75   77 95   96 >65   68
07-25-21 <95 88.4 °F 92 65 70.0°F 70 <95 91.5 °F 92 70 72.1°F 72 >95   97 <75   77 101   100 75   82
07-24-21 96 91.7 °F 95 69 70.5°F 73 97 88.4 °F 95 69 70.0°F 72 95 91.5 °F 95 71 72.1°F 73 100   100 74   73
07-23-21 98 ↓ 95.0 °F 92 76 76.0°F 76 97 91.7 °F 98 71 70.5°F 74 97 88.4 °F 96 72 70.0°F 71 95 91.5 °F 95 73 72.1°F 75
07-22-21 90 89.8 °F 88 70 72.2°F 69 95 95.0 °F 93 75 76.0°F 74 >95 91.7 °F 98 <75 70.5°F 75 95 88.4 °F 100 >65 70.0°F 71
07-21-21 88 87.4 °F 88 67 70.0°F 69 93 89.8 °F 90 73 72.2°F 71 99 95.0 °F 93 75 76.0°F 75 98 91.7 °F 100 73 70.5°F 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 2 4 1 3 4 4 0 1 3 3 0 0 1 1
% Succ 33.3   50.0 33.3   66.7 20.0   60.0 80.0   80.0     25.0 75.0   75.0     0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 31.3   2.1 14.0   1.1 21.7   3.1 1.1   1.8 27.0   4.9 18.7   1.9 5.5   7.8 24.5   3.1
Net Error -28.6   0.5 -14.0   -0.3 -14.9   2.3 -0.6   0.4 -18.9   3.9 -17.7   1.4 5.5   7.8 -22.2   3.1
Std Dev 41.6   1.4 26.3   1.4 35.4   3.1 0.9   1.6 26.1   4.3 18.4   1.7 5.5   7.8 24.5   3.1

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 97   98 75   76 100 ↓   98 76   79 98   100 70   69 88   92 69   70
07-26-21 94 ↓ 91.5 °F 93 70 72.1°F 72 98   97 74   76 101   100 76   78 96   96 70   68
07-25-21 94 88.4 °F 90 66 70.0°F 68 95 91.5 °F 91 71 72.1°F 72 100   97 73   77 103   100 76   81
07-24-21 96 91.7 °F 96 69 ↑ 70.5°F 73 97 88.4 °F 95 69 70.0°F 71 95 91.5 °F 95 71 72.1°F 73 100   99 74   74
07-23-21 98 ↓ 95.0 °F 95 76 76.0°F 76 97 91.7 °F 97 71 70.5°F 73 97 88.4 °F 95 72 70.0°F 70 95 91.5 °F 95 73 72.1°F 75
07-22-21 92 89.8 °F 91 72 72.2°F 72 99 ↓ 95.0 °F 96 75 76.0°F 77 99 91.7 °F 100 73 70.5°F 76 97 88.4 °F 100 70 70.0°F 72
07-21-21 88 87.4 °F 89 67 70.0°F 67 93 89.8 °F 90 73 72.2°F 71 99 95.0 °F 95 75 76.0°F 76 98 91.7 °F 100 73 70.5°F 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 5 3 4 0 3 5 4 0 1 3 3 0 0 2 1
% Succ 16.7   83.3 50.0   66.7     60.0 100.0   80.0     25.0 75.0   75.0     0.0 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 3.0   1.7 1.8   1.3 4.9   2.7 0.9   1.2 5.9   4.6 1.7   1.6 6.1   7.8 1.1   3.5
Net Error 3.0   1.7 -1.8   -0.5 4.9   2.5 -0.4   0.6 5.9   4.6 0.6   1.6 6.1   7.8 1.1   3.5
Std Dev 1.7   1.5 1.5   1.2 3.6   2.9 0.6   1.1 5.2   4.0 1.5   1.4 6.1   7.8 1.1   3.5

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 97   97 75   78 100 ↓   102 76   79 98   101 70   68 88   88 69   69
07-26-21 94 ↓ 91.5 °F 92 70 72.1°F 71 98   97 74   76 101   100 76   78 96   101 70   69
07-25-21 93 88.4 °F 89 66 70.0°F 68 95 91.5 °F 92 71 72.1°F 73 100   96 73   75 103   99 76   77
07-24-21 96 91.7 °F 90 69 ↑ 70.5°F 73 97 88.4 °F 94 69 70.0°F 72 95 91.5 °F 94 71 72.1°F 74 100   99 74   74
07-23-21 97 ↓ 95.0 °F 95 76 76.0°F 77 96 91.7 °F 98 71 70.5°F 75 96 88.4 °F 97 72 70.0°F 73 95 91.5 °F 95 73 72.1°F 73
07-22-21 92 ↓ 89.8 °F 90 72 ↑ 72.2°F 73 98 ↓ 95.0 °F 95 75 76.0°F 75 98 91.7 °F 98 73 70.5°F 75 97 88.4 °F 97 70 70.0°F 71
07-21-21 88 87.4 °F 87 67 70.0°F 67 93 89.8 °F 89 73 72.2°F 70 98 95.0 °F 93 76 76.0°F 75 100 91.7 °F 100 74 70.5°F 75
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 6 3 4 0 3 5 3 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 2
% Succ 33.3   100.0 50.0   66.7     60.0 100.0   60.0     25.0 75.0   50.0     0.0 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 2.7   0.6 1.8   1.7 4.5   2.6 0.9   2.1 5.1   4.9 1.4   2.6 6.8   6.8 1.5   2.1
Net Error 2.7   -0.1 -1.8   -0.3 4.5   2.3 -0.4   0.8 5.1   3.9 0.9   2.1 6.8   6.8 1.5   2.1
Std Dev 1.5   0.6 1.5   1.0 3.4   2.9 0.6   1.8 4.5   4.4 1.2   2.3 6.8   6.8 1.5   2.1

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 97   77 74   100 99   80 77   100 98   68 71   88 89   69 70   86
07-26-21 93 ↓ 91.5 °F 71 69 ↑ 72.1°F 96 97   75 74   99 99   79 76   101 98   69 71   87
07-25-21 92 88.4 °F 68 67 70.0°F 92 94 ↓ 91.5 °F 73 70 72.1°F 97 99   75 74   100 101   77 77   96
07-24-21 96 ↓ 91.7 °F 71 70 70.5°F 93 94 88.4 °F 72 67 70.0°F 94 95 91.5 °F 74 71 72.1°F 98 100   74 74   102
07-23-21 97 ↓ 95.0 °F 77 75 76.0°F 97 96 91.7 °F 74 70 70.5°F 97 96 88.4 °F 72 71 70.0°F 95 95 91.5 °F 73 72 72.1°F 100
07-22-21 92 ↓ 89.8 °F 71 72 ↑ 72.2°F 94 98 ↓ 95.0 °F 74 76 76.0°F 98 98 91.7 °F 75 72 70.5°F 97 97 88.4 °F 71 71 70.0°F 95
07-21-21 88 87.4 °F 68 67 70.0°F 91 93 89.8 °F 71 73 72.2°F 94 98 95.0 °F 75 76 76.0°F 101 100 91.7 °F 76 74 70.5°F 98
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 2 0
% Succ 50.0   0.0 50.0   0.0     0.0 60.0   0.0     0.0 100.0   0.0     0.0 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 2.4   19.6 1.8   22.0 3.7   18.5 1.3   23.8 5.1   17.7 0.9   25.6 6.8   17.2 1.5   26.8
Net Error 2.4   -19.6 -1.8   22.0 3.7   -18.5 -1.0   23.8 5.1   -17.7 0.4   25.6 6.8   -17.2 1.5   26.8
Std Dev 1.4   8.1 1.4   9.0 2.6   11.7 1.2   15.1 4.5   15.3 0.8   22.2 6.8   17.2 1.5   26.8

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-27-21 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-27-21 <75   78 >95   101 75   81 95   101 70   71 >85   88 >65   69 85   84
07-26-21 69 ↑ 72.1°F 72 97 91.5 °F 96 74   75 99   99 76   78 98   97 71   69 91   91
07-25-21 67 70.0°F 68 94 ↓ 88.4 °F 91 70 72.1°F 71 99 91.5 °F 95 74   75 101   100 77   77 97   99
07-24-21 70 70.5°F 76 94 91.7 °F 96 67 70.0°F 74 95 88.4 °F 95 71 72.1°F 73 100 91.5 °F 98 74   74 104   95
07-23-21 75 76.0°F 76 96 95.0 °F 96 70 70.5°F 73 96 91.7 °F 96 71 70.0°F 74 95 88.4 °F 97 72 72.1°F 72 99 91.5 °F 100
07-22-21 72 ↑ 72.2°F 70 98 ↓ 89.8 °F 94 76 76.0°F 75 98 95.0 °F 98 72 70.5°F 74 97 91.7 °F 96 71 70.0°F 72 96 88.4 °F 91
07-21-21 67 70.0°F 70 93 87.4 °F 90 73 72.2°F 71 98 89.8 °F 93 76 76.0°F 75 100 95.0 °F 99 74 70.5°F 75 96 91.7 °F 100
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 4 1 1 3 3 0 0 4 2 0 0 2 2 0 0
% Succ 50.0   66.7 16.7   16.7 60.0   60.0     0.0 100.0   50.0     0.0 66.7   66.7     0.0
Ave Error 1.8   1.6 4.7   3.2 1.3   2.0 5.9   4.1 0.9   2.4 6.4   5.9 1.5   2.2 6.5   6.5
Net Error -1.8   0.2 4.7   3.2 -1.0   0.6 5.9   4.1 0.4   1.9 6.4   5.9 1.5   2.1 6.5   6.5
Std Dev 1.4   2.0 3.0   1.8 1.2   1.6 3.9   2.8 0.8   2.2 5.6   5.1 1.5   2.2 6.5   6.5

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-26-21 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-26-21 69 ↑   71 97   95 74   75 99   99 76   77 98   98 71   69 91   91
07-25-21 67 78.2°F 66 94 ↓ 88.4 °F 90 70   69 99   96 74   75 101   101 77   76 97   100
07-24-21 70 71.9°F 76 94 91.7 °F 96 67 78.2°F 73 95 88.4 °F 95 71   73 100   98 74   74 104   95
07-23-21 75 78.0°F 77 96 95.0 °F 98 70 ↑ 71.9°F 73 96 91.7 °F 97 71 78.2°F 74 95 88.4 °F 97 72   72 99   100
07-22-21 72 ↑ 83.2°F 71 98 ↓ 89.8 °F 94 76 78.0°F 75 98 95.0 °F 98 72 71.9°F 74 97 91.7 °F 96 71 78.2°F 73 96 88.4 °F 91
07-21-21 67 78.4°F 71 93 87.4 °F 89 73 83.2°F 70 98 89.8 °F 94 76 78.0°F 74 100 95.0 °F 99 74 71.9°F 75 96 91.7 °F 100
07-20-21 66 76.6°F 68 90 87.7 °F 90 69 78.4°F 68 95 87.4 °F 91 73 83.2°F 71 99 89.8 °F 97 75 78.0°F 75 101 95.0 °F 101
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 16.7   33.3 40.0   20.0     0.0 50.0   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 8.2   7.6 4.2   2.8 6.9   6.6 5.9   4.5 4.9   5.6 6.5   6.0 4.1   3.8 6.0   5.6
Net Error -8.2   -6.2 4.2   2.8 -6.9   -6.1 5.9   4.5 -4.8   -4.6 6.5   6.0 -2.7   -1.7 6.0   5.6
Std Dev 5.2   5.1 2.9   1.6 5.7   5.1 4.1   3.1 4.4   4.9 5.7   5.4 4.1   3.8 6.0   5.6

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.